Imagine you live in a pure, direct democratic state where everything comes up for a vote and majority rule is the only constitutional principle. The question on the ballot is this:
Shall it be law that anyone who votes “yes” on this question has the right to kill, without impediment by the state, anyone who votes “no” on this question?
A month before the election, polling shows this measure to be very, very unpopular due to its monstrous idiocy. It’s like 99% against, and nobody seems to be worried about the possibility of its passage.
But then people start to talk. Why isn’t it 100% against? Who are the people supporting this nonsense? Surely they’re joking. They’re lying to pollsters, to protest something about the system, or just to make themselves feel special. They’re being “ironic” after a fashion… right? They have to be, because the alternative is too horrible to contemplate.
On the other hand, they’re willing to go so far as lying to pollsters just to make a point, because it carries no consequences. If they judge that their votes will also carry no consequences, might they not take the gag one step further and vote yes?
Questions like this make a small number of people nervous, and in the next week’s poll, support for the measure has increased a small amount. People are reasoning that if there’s a non-zero chance of the measure passing, they don’t want to be among the newly imperiled “no” voters. And immediately, the headline on every news site is “Support for Death Referendum on the Rise.”
Now people really start to go nuts. Voter by voter, it’s starting to sink in that this thing could possibly squeak by. All it needs is 50% plus one vote, and if you voted no, you’re dead.
But then somebody comes up with an idea: if everybody votes yes, it’s the same as nobody voting yes, because then there would be no no-voters to kill! It’s brilliant! We all just have to vote yes, problem solved!
And here come the trolls. They want the final vote to be close. Their ideal result is 51% yes, 49% no. Their reasons are unclear. Maybe they’re foreign actors looking to destabilize your political system. Maybe they really want the right to kill people. Or maybe they just want to burn it all down for laughs.
So they meme, and agitate, and do everything they can to sow doubt and distrust among the voting public. Now there’s a new conspiracy theory: It’s a trap! A socialist purity test! The government’s actually gonna round up all the yes voters and put them in camps! Wake up sheeple!
As for you, you started out like most reasonable people: firmly in the majority of ardent no voters. But the poll numbers, assuming you can trust them, are following a very disturbing trend.
At what point do you start to get worried for your own safety? At what point do you waver? At what point, if any, do you start to consider voting yes?
(The polled question is the referendum itself. It’s not public.)