I like her, but I want James Talarico to win.
Colin Allred is expected to drop out.
Jasmine Crockett is awesome, and unless there is a strategic reason against it that I’m missing, I wish her success in anything she persues.
I don’t think any democrat has a chance in Texas anytime soon sadly.
Beto came close in 2018 winning 48% of the vote. But even with the headwinds (higher dem midterm turnout) I feel like the process of Texas turning blue reversed in 2024.
Texas has been turning less and less red from 2004 to 2020. But I don’t know if they are blue enough to be competitive.
In 2004, the Dem candidate for president won 38% of the vote
Then 43% in 08
then 41% in ‘12
then 43% in ‘16
then 46% in 2020 under Biden.
Under Harris, it dropped down to 42% again.
I wish I was wrong, and I’m wrong a lot. But I don’t know. Maybe if latinos and Gen Z abandon Trump in huge numbers, and GOP turnout is low, and Dem turnout is high, maybe the Dem will get 50-51% of the vote.
Unless her district disappeared, I think she could do more good by staying in the House and continue doing what she is already doing so well.
I like her, but I think she’s far too polarizing and obnoxious to actually make a credible run for Senate in Texas.
She’ll repel a lot of moderates, enrage a lot of unmotivated racists/sexists/conservatives and only really appeal to people who would have voted for her anyway.
She’d do great if she were in a blue state - or stayed with representing her blue district. In a purple-red state like Texas, I think all her talk about white privilege, “bleach-blonde butch bodies,” isn’t going to fly well in a state where Democrats still trail by 1 million.
I hope Talarico pulls ahead - I think he offers a really refreshing message, and has a real chance in Texas. I don’t see Crockett’s message and style doing well across the whole state.
Part and parcel of James Talarico’s message is how Christianity has been hijacked by conservatives to be used against the marginalized and powerless. About how Jesus really teaches us to love our neighbor, and pray for those who persecute us. His message really resonates with me as a liberal Christian, and I think he’s a better fit for the Senate than a firebrand like Crockett who won’t win any independent votes.
The fact that John Cornyrn, Republican senator from Texas, says he is gleeful about the prospect of facing Crockett should say a thing about her electability in Texas.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5641075-cornyn-on-crocketts-senate-run-am-i-hiding-my-glee/
Ugh. I think it would be much better to keep religion out of politics completely. (I know, that ship has long since sailed, but I don’t see this making it any better).
There’s another thread (legal dirty tricks) where it is claimed that some of Crockett’s support is a result of Republican astroturfing. Apparently they think she is more defeatable than Talarico.
Has anything happened since the election that might have turned a large segment of the population, say, Hispanics, against the GOP?
Not surprisingly, to me, anyway, Crockett’s push to run for Senate was partially Astroturfed by Republicans.
She would be much easier for them to beat than James Talarico, I think.
It makes me ill that a black woman who speaks her mind is considered unelectable and “obnoxios” by Texans and particularly by people on this board.
Anyone who “speaks their mind” is generally unelectable, especially in a state-wide election. Crockett’s style is extremely well suited to the House, and poorly suited to the Senate.
The primary is today.
A summation from today’s New York Times:
50% of votes now in and Talarico is up over Crockett 53.4% to 45.4% of the vote.
Good. Crockett didn’t campaign which strikes me as something that you would do if you were a serious person. And as much as the Dems need some haters in office, that’s not enough.
I’m about 30 miles north of downtown Dallas, and agree with a lot of what’s been said here. Unfortunately like always the powers that be in this state are turning this election into a clusterfk.
Earlier tonight a court ruled that only in Dallas County (Jasmine Crockett’s “home district”, I think I heard) that they could keep polls open two hours later until 9pm, because of some shenanigans where voters were turned away from the polling location that they’d voted at for years, and told they needed to vote at a different location.
Then around 9pm the TX Supreme Court overturned that ruling, so all the local news stations are describing what a mess it’s going to be, trying to determine which votes to count (i.e. “who was in line at 7pm”) and which ones to exclude.
I don’t see how this gets called tonight.
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5766194-texas-supreme-court-dallas-voting-extension/
Anecdote, but my Texas family (brother, sister-in-law, half-brother and spouse, and mother since my nephew and niece are still too young to vote) all were on team Talarico, and most tried to vote early. Apparently lines in some of the bluer areas of Dallas were over two hours long, which they found encouraging and matches with what @Win_Place_Show is saying in part.
With 88% of votes counted the D primary has been called for Talarico. The GOP side will require a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton sometime in May.