At this stage of the process, GOP leaders are predicting a “Tsunami” in order to maximize fund raising. By the end of the summer, these same folks will be predicting a very close election(s) in order maximizing voter turnout from their base. Either may be true nor false, but it’s all political bs, nonetheless.
The Republicans may win the Senate, but it won’t be because of a “Tsunami.” In fact it’s almost a certainty that, in the aggregate, more votes will be cast for Senate Democrat candidates than for their Republican opponents. The problem for Dems is that they currently have so many more seats up for election. In 2016, the GOP will find itself defending 23 of the 33 Senate seats up for election, and in a Presidential year, with higher turnout.
I don’t see that much of a big deal if the GOP is able to gain 6 seats in 2014 only to lose it all back in 2016.
I’d estimate that, at present, the GOP has about a 40% chance of getting a gain of 6. Even if the GOP is able to abort all of the Tea-Party nut bags in the primaries, you wonder how many tea-partiers will sit on their hands on general election day. As an example,currently, Mitch McConnell is crapping all over the Tea Party and their candidate, and in the fall I expect many of the TPees will piss all over him.