yes, started the thread:
Who exactly is going to obey the commands of the puppet mayors, besides the Russian military? What happens when the puppet mayor gives an order and everyone in the city says “fuck you”?
That is an unknown. There can be contingency planning that is kept under wraps.
They have already done so.
From the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, their assessment yesterday:
Russian forces secured limited advances east of Kyiv and north from Crimea on March 12 but continue to face logistical challenges, mounting casualties, and sustained Ukrainian counterattacks.
Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv in the past 24 hours. Russian forces made limited advances around Chernihiv and toward Kyiv’s eastern outskirts after pausing for several days.
Continued Ukrainian counterattacks and successful operations by Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces continue to threaten Russia’s long line of communication in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces captured unspecified “eastern outskirts” of Mariupol on March 12 and continue to shell the city in a likely effort to force it to capitulate.
If the Ukrainian government hasn’t made contingency plans for a government in exile, they are too stupid to be running a government. Any denial about such a plan is pure propagandistic bluster.
Is it still “bluster” if denial is actually a good idea?
They absolutely need to have such plans in place, but at the same time, publicizing such plans could have a major negative impact on Ukrainian morale. At this point, that could be fatal.
I agree, but anybody taking those denials as fact is naive. The Ukrainians have proven themselves masters of propaganda in this war and every statement coming out of their government is suspect without independent confirmation.
AFAIK his wife and child hasn’t been seen in public since the invasion.
I hope the family is safe in another country.
My sense is that “counterattack” means hitting troops in movement, supply lines, etc. I had meant something more along the lines of trying to take back a city, power plant, etc. where the Russians are in a fully defensive position and have buildings, walls, and etc. to work from.
What about antifreeze? That’ll kill people! It’s winter over there. Do they not use antifreeze in their vehicles? Draining the water from them would be dangerous, if they drink it.
House radiators I’m sure.
Perhaps they are referring to building radiators.
Ah, ok. No idea on my end.
Some of his videos are recorded out in the street with evidence of the war in the background. It’s not baldly stated, but it’s pretty clearly subtle trolling of the Russians. “Yep, definitely still here, despite your best efforts.”
This was supposedly from today:
The Ukrainian air force had to stop most operations during the Donbas civil war because Soviet/Russian equipment was shooting too many of them down. Say what you will about Russian stuff but their AA assets work.
A local, tactical level counterattack isn’t the same as a strategic level offensive. Ukraine is on the defensive. Armies on the defense always do little counterattack here and there, that’s the nature of war. They are losing ground. Slowly, to be sure, but still. The question is how long the Russian army can keep this up before it’s not capable of effective offensive operations.
I appreciate the Intelligence Updates you’ve been posting. I regard those as reputable cites. The one you posted for today has 3 bullet points, each mentioning Russian advances. By any reasonable definition, isn’t advancing analogous to winning?
That’s pretty much what happened to the US in Vietnam. The NVA and to a lesser extent, VC could achieve tactical victories here and there but kept it up until we got tired and left.
This is higher intensity but the Ukr forces can only make the Russians miserable and hope they don’t trash the place too much when they leave.
The sanctions will help with this – I wonder how much young Russians will tolerate the Soviet-style queues of their parents’ stories – but that is long term.
Well, it seems to me you post your fair share of speculation, as well, e.g.
How is that mass surrender “soon” prediction from over a week ago going so far?
And what about this “fact”?
Has he resigned? This one seemed a little fishy to me at the time, and I cannot find any legitimate reporting on this, since breathless Daily Mail reports and ALL CAPS tweets don’t count. Is any of that true? I still don’t know, a week later.
I mean, I generally appreciate your posts and links in this thread - you’ve pointed me to several interesting articles and analyses. So, thanks for that! But let’s not pretend you haven’t been posting your fair share of speculation (or “intuition,” if you will) as well.
And as the young experience this. They will eat propaganda instead of food. It will make them more aggressive. This is just IMHO.