I’m trying to understand China’s calculus here:
Supplying Russia risks prolonged conflict, strained relationships with their biggest customers and, oh yeah, World War III, and to what benefit? Destabilizing their rivals in the US and Europe, and maybe setting the stage for their own invasion of Taiwan?
OTOH, telling Russia to fuck off strengthens their relationship with the West and weakens their neighbor, with whom they’ve had no love lost.
I don’t get it.
Yeah, this is some un-Chinese behavior. The logical thing would be to stand back and let Russia self-destruct as much as possible, then exploit Russia to the max once the war was over.
Maybe the CCP thinks the Russia-China relationship is so valuable that they’re willing to throw them a life preserver? Still very un-CCPish though.
One possible motive is that a Ukrainian victory is a bad moral message for China, it could have the effect of letting uppity little countries like Taiwan think they could fight off a Chinese invasion, and so Beijing needs the outcome of this war to be a Ukrainian defeat, in order to dampen any Taiwanese enthusiasm.
Taiwan does.
You’d be surprised. And the internet makes it easier to find what you’re looking for.
From what we’ve heard of Russian demands it amounts to “Let us win.”
Or they may have decided this could pull NATO into a shooting war with Russia.
That would definitely serve China’s interests, having the West and Russia bleed each other for years with China selling stuff to both parties. It might suck for the rest of us, but for China… not so bad.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
or rather, if we’re talking Chinese currency:
¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥
The mental picture of Russian troops eating Chinese food out of MREs does amuse a bit. I picture more than a few “cyka blyats” over the cuisine preferences.
??? Google Translate threw up its electrons in defeat.
The 2018 PLA type 13 MRE (eaten at less than a year old) is one of the few things that YouTuber Steve1989MREinfo has been made ill by (another was an older canned Ukrainian ration) . He claimed the type 17 PLA ration was pretty good, and the 2021 Ukrainian ration was one of the best he’s had.
If an army marches on its stomach, it seems that they’ve both learned something. I hope the Chinese ship the Russians a bunch of type 13 MREs.
First hit on Google for me:
Or if you Google the Cyrillic (сука блять):
“Fucking bitch/whore” or something around there.
“Cyka” is approximating the Cyrrilic in Roman letters. The word is pronounced more like “soo-kah” and better/more usually transliterated as “suka.”
Why Russia needs MREs:
Cristo Grosev a few days ago:
More and more reports from Ukrainians in occupied territory about Russian soldiers begging for food. While Russia’s army notorious logistical incompetence may be part of it, it appears like soldiers - or their bosses - are also selling rations on the Russian black market.
One ration goes for 350 Rubles (USD 3) and can feed one for two days - a great deal for residents of the impoverished middle Russia.
Today:
Indeed, while Russian soldiers are starving and breaking into Ukrainian’s homes begging for bread, Prigozhin’s “not for sale” military food rations have flooded Russia’s ebay-like sites at $3 a can. Corruption is destroying Russia - and as @AricToler says, might just save Ukraine.
That’s probably the reason they need other military supplies too. The whole Russian military is absolutely rotten with corruption.
ISW Assessment, March 14:
Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northeastern Ukraine.
Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions.
Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses with both Russian replacements and non-Russian sources, including Syrian fighters and the Wagner Group, are unlikely to enable Russia to resume major offensive operations within the coming week.
China’s calculus is this:
By playing will-they-won’t-they with regard to supplying Russia, they get to play both sides against the other and could potentially get some sort of concession or bribes from one side or the other (or both!) to lean their way. In the meantime both of their main global rivals continue to weaken themselves, and China continues to assess how the West might react to a move on Taiwan.
It’s maximum return for minimal effort from China. They might give Russia some weapons or supplies to drag out the conflict a little longer (in return for…something) but IMO they’re unlikely to openly declare for one side or the other, at least until the end is inevitable anyway.
I think China needs to realize that the longer the war lasts, the more militarized and warlike the U.S. and its allies will become - which is not good for its ambitions for Taiwan.
And - more to the point - more unified.
But they wouldn’t supply Russia enough to drag the conflict out for months. But a couple extra weeks of war and sanctions would weaken Russia nicely from their standpoint.
I bet the Russian troops are throwing up, too.
Foreign leaders meeting IN Kyiv? That sends a message. Seems to be a fairly high degree of confidence the Russians are not going to succeed any time soon in encircling the city.
And how are they getting there? Flying in seems contraindicated, and even by car the threat of being bombed is there. Have those three countries been in communications with the Russians to guarantee their safety?
I’m a bit skeptical this will actually come about.