Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Social media users observed elements of Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army based in Russia‘s proxy republic in Georgia, South Ossetia, redeploying in likely transit to Ukraine on March 15. Russia has already pulled forces from its base in Armenia and will likely soon redeploy forces from its base in Tajikistan.

I’m not sure what the current status is of things in Georgia but that certainly seems like a risk to do.

Time now for any Georgian rebels or anti-Putin forces to make their move. No doubt this is why Putin is starting to threaten ethnic cleansing.

I’m hoping that the people in these countries are starting to wonder: “Will we be next?”

Dude, we’ve been using the M2 Browning 35 years longer than we’ve been using the Mk 19. If it ain’t broke then use it to kill the enemy.

Is it wrong of me to now really want a Mk 19? Preferably mounted like this one for all those jerks in traffic? File:Mexican troops operating at a random checkpoint 2009.jpg - Wikipedia

Hope Australia would send some of its 200 Javelins to Ukraine.

I also noticed in the Biden $800 million assistance package there was no mention of food or fuel. Those two things must be weighing heavily, even if less attention-getting than weapons.

Part of getting spending packages through Congress is making sure the money spent goes into the pockets of constituents. Food and fuel is better sourced in Europe where there are few American voters.

“Four times, it’s WE suck at opsec.”

In service since 1968, Wikipedia says the Mk 19 is “currently in widespread use throughout the U.S. Armed Forces”, as well as with various other countries’ militaries.

One of the generals was allegedly shot by a sniper, but locations for this differ, so this may not be accurate account of his untimely demise.

In addition to the four Russian generals, a couple of other notable commanders on the Russian side who have recently left this earth include a guy commanding a regiment of Chechens, who, perhaps inaccurately, has been described in the press as a “general”, and the commander of the DPR rebels’ “special forces” Sparta Battalion.

(Wikipedia now has its own page for Russian generals killed during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine)

Of course, YouTube has done this.

Are the generals’ wearing these? Because if so, I think I’ve found the problem.

Though we must admit, in the Great Clash, his was the vastly superior mustache.

Apparently giving the Ukrainians MiGs is off the table because it’s considered too provocative to fly them through NATO airspace to their destination.
At least publicly.
Any chance some covered flatcars are making their way to Ukraine, contents unknown?

For the moment. It’s being discussed for deletion.

A subject that I’m sure came up when Zelensky met with Polish PM Morawiecki yesterday.

It’s really hitting me how social media (which everyone loves to make into a villain) is changing how $h!t gets handled.

Decades ago, we didn’t have zillions of video uploads where ordinary ppl got to say, “Hey, yo, this some B.S. and we got you.”

I’ve wondered if the PM visit by the neighboring countries was a distraction, while they slipped the planes in.

Poland and the US saying that they couldn’t get the deal through doesn’t mean that they didn’t get the deal through. Usually, I trust that the public statements of the US government are relatively honest. In a war situation, though, that expectation isn’t safe.

The MiGs could already be in Ukraine and flying merrily around.

Heck, figure out how to disassemble them enough to fit on the trains carrying the PMs and get them in that way. (No, I have no evidence whatsoever that this happened, but it’s fun to speculate).

This is a interesting development. Maybe they won’t send arms to Russia?

Guardian live blog

I do wonder how sympathetic being a diplomat to a nation makes one to that nation.

I’m envisioning the Chinese delegation to Russia, and Chinese delegation to Ukraine, quarreling with each other on the Ukraine matter.

Regarding the curious presence of so many high-ranking Russians in and around the front lines: It’s been discussed, in this thread and others, that decision-making in the Russian military is extremely top-down. Lower-ranking field officers are not empowered with flexibility; they are expected to adhere to their received orders and cannot adapt to fluid situations. Compare the American doctrine, where front-line commanders are given an objective and the rules of engagement, and figure out the solution on their own.

In circumstances like these, it makes sense that the Russians would need to have the top guys right there on the spot, looking at the battlefield and making hour-to-hour decisions about how to rewrite strategy on the fly. And it also makes sense that it would be easy for Ukrainian observers to identify them, because they’ll be at the center of lots of comings-and-goings, as intelligence arrives and orders are dispatched.

One longterm problem mentioned on Reddit: It’s possible that, in the years and decades ahead, Russia will become so poor and desperate that it will no longer be able to maintain satisfactory security over each of its 6,000+ nuclear warheads. The odds of some rogue guy with the means selling a few nukes on the black market go up.