Honestly… given how things are developing I’m now worried about what will happen to those Russian soldiers.
Almost certainly not - Putin would not want their eyewitness report to make the rounds back home.
Given that the Russians would like to have some of that food and fuel perhaps it is best not to advertise its location or even existence?
Also, the Europeans might be sending food. And if I recall Biden was trying to get suppliers of fuel in places like the Middle East to ship directly to Europe.
Indeed, we’re mostly getting our news from Ukrainian-friendly media, which probably self-censors itself to a large degree (for good reasons, no one wants to reveal info that might be useful to the Russians or raise their morale).
But it’s quite clear that the Russian army got a bloody nose, has high losses in men and equipment, poor logistics and (at least in some cases) it’s poorly led. However, we have no idea how stretched the Ukrainian army is. We can guess that some parts of it are still in quite good shape (no Russian air supremacy implies that Ukrainian AA is still alive and kicking), but we don’t know what’s the overall situation of their units - which probably varies a lot from Kyiv (which I guess gets highest priority in terms of men and equipment) and Donbass. Can they still supply their troops in Donbass, or provide them AA cover?
My impression is that Russia is still winning - they’re still advancing on all fronts, especially from the South. And the more worrying part is that the Ukrainians did not launched any counterattacks so far; sure, they keep pestering the Russian supply lines, but haven’t really fully cut any of them.
Maybe this is about to change; a few days ago there was a Russian “tentacle” heading North-West from Mykolaiv, probably trying to bypass it on their way to Odessa. Apparently it reached as far as Voznesensk, but then, looking at the latest map on https://liveuamap.com/, the Ukrainians pushed them back past Nykolaiv and now are getting close to Kherson. If they can get Kherson back, this would secure the Western side of the Dniepr. Which could be crucial if/when Mariupol falls, since that would free additional Russian forces that could be used to push further West if they’d still have bridgeheads across the river.
In any case, I think reports from Ukraine give a fair idea about what happens, despite not mentioning Ukrainian losses; for instance, there’s this report from Radio Free Europe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ryCBcq_qxk which sounds quite balanced (Ukrainian soldiers talking about the Russians: “The Russian forces here were skilled.” “We mined their rear. Some of the damage is not critical and we can use their weapons.” “I have not personally seen looting, but the locals report it.” - sounds like reporting facts, not spewing propaganda).
IIRC, some of the Russian/Soviet prisoners of war returning home after the defeat of Germany in WW2 were sent straight to the Gulag. So yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if those soldiers will be considered traitors.
Maybe so will Ukraine… rethinking their giving up of their nukes back in the 1990’s. And I wouldn’t blame them one bit if they made that choice.
I am beginning to think that the very public back-and-forth over the no-fly zone, and perhaps also over the MiG jets, is to distract from something else going on in the background.
Yes, if you stand exposed too long in an active war zone you will find your cardiovascular system non-functional. Mainly due to high-speed lead poisoning.
I think China might see it in their interest to back Russia because of Taiwan. This way: A) they can call on Russia’s help when they make that move if need be, B) it is better to be owed than to owe and this would put China in that position, and C) like China, Russia is an autocratic country despite their claims of democracy and China is familiar with it aka the devil they know.
CBC News covers Arnold’s impassioned speech, including the full video clip. CNN has yet to mention it (although, being CNN, they do bring us the vital information that Kanye West was banned from Instagram for 24 hours ).
I read an interesting thread today that explained how in Putin’s hierarchy of power, the military is the neglected red-headed stepchild. It’s beneath the Russian mob, which in turn is beneath the security services. Apparently Putin allows (or encourages) both those factions to parasitize the military to keep it weak, both by siphoning resources and by promoting from outside (from the security services).
In the realm of wild-ass speculation, one could theorize that perhaps Putin saw his grip on power weakening, and saw the military as a threat, and sent it into Ukraine to get it ground down to something more manageable. Meanwhile on the homefront, the war is an excuse for Putin to consolidate power, purge the disloyal, and clamp down on opposition.
Russia has nukes, so it has no real need to maintain much of a conventional deterrent. Perhaps Putin saw this as a no-lose scenario. If Zelensky takes a fall and Putin installs a puppet to replace him, great, Putin is covered in glory. If Ukraine prevails and duo-decimates the Russian Army… that’s not exactly ideal, but the sizeable silver lining is that Putin consolidates his position as a dictator with no real threat from the Army.
As I said, that’s wild-ass speculation on my part, but it could help explain why Putin would make such a reckless and arguably stupid gamble. Maybe Putin could meet some of his own individual objectives without securing a decisive military victory.
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