Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Wouldn’t this be a nice unintended consequence of Putin’s screw-up in invading Ukraine:

Georgia joining NATO. Followed by Moldova and Finland.

If you asked this question today, of your neighbor in Kyiv, they might consider you, at best, defeatist. And a lot of them might consider the life of a Ukrainian soldier to be even more precious than that of a civilian.

Russians could, and I hope will, ask whether overthrowing Zelenskyy is worth the death and maiming of their draft age population.

Ukraine was, even before the disaster of war, an impoverished nation by European standards, with half the per capital purchasing power income of Russia. If Ukraine can fight off Russia, I hope and expect there to be some sort of Marshall Plan giving a brighter future.

Those positions are in no way contradictory. The fact the invasion of Ukraine is very bad does not mean it’s easy to know what to do about it.

CNN live feed:

Some Russian soldiers have gotten frostbite due to lack of appropriate gear, senior US defense official says

From CNN’s Oren Liebermann

The United States has seen indications that some Russian soldiers have gotten frostbite in Ukraine because they lack the appropriate cold-weather gear, according to a senior US defense official.

The lack of proper equipment is compounded by the shortages of food and fuel among Russian forces, the official said, as logistics and sustainment problems continue to plague Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is nearing the one-month mark.

Said to be a conversation with a Russian soldier intercepted by Ukraine (they’ve posted an audio recording in Russian) :

(Click here for larger version.)

Includes interview with a pilot.

In addition to what others have pointed out, remember that 3.4 million Ukrainians have fled the country. If Ukraine wins militarily, they’ll be back. Back to rubble, maybe, but they’ll be back.

Shame on us for not letting them have the Polish MiGs.

Justin Bronk reckons:

Exploring options to supply Ukraine with the legacy Soviet- or Russian-made SAM systems which remain in the inventories of several eastern NATO member states, would be a more reliable means of limiting the already underwhelming effectiveness of Russian airpower…

The process of removing NATO-standard crypto, identification systems, radios and other equipment which cannot be sent to Ukraine, while training Ukrainian pilots to be combat-effective in an unfamiliar cockpit layout, would also take weeks at least. With a very short range at low altitudes (where both sides are having to operate), MiG-29s would also not be able to provide persistent defensive cover in contested areas like mobile SAMs can.

Might I suggest that such statements be reworded to “Europe and America and Canada”? There is more than one country in North America, and we here in Canada have been told, over and over again, how much lethal weaponry we’re sending to help Ukraine. Millions of dollars worth, actually:

How about Europe and North America?

Also, it seems (as I expected) a Russian lawmaker is asking for Alaska back:

To clarify - the US did not “seize” Alaska, we bought it fair and square for around 2¢ an acre, as agreed upon in a legally ratified treaty between the US and Russia in the 1860’s. It was Russia that seized it from the Natives.

These days, in addition to crazy Americans heavily armed with guns, including Natives who are both heavily armed and masters of the local environment, I’m pretty sure the Canadians would not be happy about the Russians moving back in after 160 years

This is further proof that the current Russian government is not looking to restore the old Soviet Union, he wants the Tsarist Empire back, and at its greatest extent. Also, threatening the territorial integrity of the US is probably not the smartest move. Unless, of course, you want to start WWIII under some bizarre notion that you’d win, somehow. Russia can not win WWIII. It might be able to ensure everyone loses, but it can’t win.

The tally is likely to be the highest casualty rate among general officers in the Russian military since World War II, according to Foreign Policy, which reported that electronic communications equipment failures left Russian forces vulnerable to targeted strikes.

This is good news for the Russian military pension pot, at least.

Also good news for lower-ranked officers who were waiting for upper-tier retirements to open up promotional opportunities. Though bad news as to the likely postings for said opportunities.

Are we sure this whole thing isn’t some kind of Squid Game situation?

My Google search came up dry. Anyone know what this GRAD is that they were shelled with?

ETA Because I put BRAD into Google. Letters are hard. Here we go:

Mexico has refused to send arms to Ukraine, so saying “North America” would be inaccurate.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/mexico-will-not-send-arms-ukraine-president-says-2022-03-04/

Well, Switzerland isn’t sending arms either…I guess we better just write out all dozen or so countries that are.

ETA - This graphic is a few weeks old, but the point remains that there are a lot of countries in Europe not sending weapons and AFAIK Sweden is the only non-NATO country doing so. It’s hardly unique that non-NATO Mexico is not.

Here’s a concerning article from Reuters.

The last paragraph, where Medvedev mentions 5 or 6 countries run by “freaks, fanatics, and radicals” spread across the Eurasian continent should Russia collapse is worrying.

Is he just trying to scare the west into not helping Ukraine, or does he genuinely believe that Russia would collapse that easily and in that manner?

Mexico has stated they don’t send arms to anyone. I haven’t researched that, but if it is true then it’s consistency in their international policies and not anything against Ukraine in particular. In many ways it’s not their fight and at this point I can’t blame a nation outside NATO or the EU for sitting on the sidelines. I might prefer they take our side, but I can understand why they might not.

Mexico has not imposed sanctions directly against Russia, but a number of Mexican companies have suspended operations there. Again, as a neutral country I can understand their reluctance to engage in sanctions however much I’d like them on “our” team.

Mexico has called for a cease fire and end to the war, and protested Russia exercising its veto in a matter in which Russia is directly involved, pointing out the problem with allowing security council members to do that sort of thing. Also upholding the notion of territorial integrity and sovereignty for all nations.

Mexico has stated they are willing to provide humanitarian help and shelter for refugees, but are so far holding firm to the stance they they do not want to be involved in this war. And I can’t blame them for that. They are allowing Ukrainians to come on tourist visas and a number have done so, some then driving to the US border to ask for asylum. All Ukrainians currently currently in Mexico, and arriving, are allowed to stay for at least the duration of the war in Ukraine which is basically the same deal offered by their neighbor to the North.

Mexico is also allowing Russians already in country to stay, and allowing others fleeing the war to come and stay.

From my viewpoint they seem to be acting as a neutral country. Which is their right, as they are not a signatory to either NATO or the EU, unlike the US and Canada which are both NATO members and have obligations Mexico does not.

Even so, I don’t discount Mexico’s position as a country willing to accept those fleeing the war and lending their hand to diplomatic efforts, as feeble as diplomacy of any sort appears to be at the moment.

So, OK, maybe some instances should be stated Canada and the United States but for talk of, say, refugees North America would be accurate. Correction made and noted.

My current take - which is subject to change with more information and/or compelling arguments by other posters - is that since Putin took power the West has wanted an end to the Russian government system in its current form which, to someone like Putin, is pretty much the same as ending Russia. As opposed the Russia the West wants - peaceful, open, and preferable run by a democracy with a capitalist economy. Well, the US got the capitalism but that’s about it.

As for the “freaks, fanatics, and radicals” line - I read that as “run by people not like us”, that is, by people tolerating things like homosexuality and radicals like folks in favor of non-corrupt true democracy. Also run by those damn dirty apes ethnic minorities that currently occupy the bottom of the Russian social ladder.

I am getting concerned with the Russian government’s continued nuclear dick-waving. The notion of using nukes is certainly on their minds. I wouldn’t put it past them to nuke a location as a false flag then blame the Americans who, after all, have used nukes in warfare before (albeit long ago under different circumstances).