Unless it’s a Russian sleight of hand it means the Ukrainian government has survived this invasion (at least for now). This is a major victory for Ukraine, though A LOT of fighting still to do. If Russia has a victorious phase two then they might change their mind about challenging Zelenskyy.
Of course Ukraine will obviously still battle for Dombas.
I also hope this means the end of the nightmare in Mariupol.
Unless?
I’d expect the Russians to keep shelling Ukrainian cities and trying to capture Mariupol, but framing their retreats as “tactical withdrawals having completed their objectives”.
Excellent. It means Russia has already conceded half of defeat - it won’t be going after Kyiv or trying to take all of Ukraine anymore.
Well the Russians are clearly managing expectations at home. They know they cannot win without unacceptable losses. So it seems pretty clear that they are looking for a consolation prize that they can try to claim as a victory. At this point I reckon Putin is just trying to save his job (and maybe his life). A military defeat or a bogged down campaign and he surely can’t survive.
Just because they say that doesn’t mean they’re not still planning on encircling and destroying Kyiv. Nothing the Kremlin says is worth the electrons it took to display the words on your screen.
I’d agree that it indicates that the Russians have now accepted that they can’t conquer the whole of Ukraine and that they’ve recalibrated to just conquering the Donbas. Holding other Ukrainian territory would therefore be as capital in any peace negotiations, although it’s possible they might try and claim something in the south.
thats where those Ukr. tractors come in handy …
Highly unlikely. Mariupol is in the Donbas region. If they are re-calibrating to settle on those provinces, they’re going to want it. It was after all a target in the earlier separatist war.
looks like their exit-ramp …
… our initial plan was to kill that huge mamut … but to be honest, the 3 little bunnies we cought were at least as tasty …
.
or we could just fast forward to the part where he falls seriously ill in the bunker
Depends on who wins. For example:
Latest conflict update from the Institute for the Study of War:
If Crimea’s population is heavily pro-Russia, is it really worth it for Ukraine to try to take it back? It would be a never-ending headache for the Ukrainian government.
From the latest Institute for the Study of War:
Lavrov and Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that Ukraine is constantly changing its position under manipulation from the United States.
The Russians simply can NOT wrap their heads around the notion that Ukraine is its own country and not a puppet, can they?
Do we actually know if Crimea is pro or anti Russia at this point? I’m sure as hell not taking the Kremlin’s word on that.
Maybe only third-best in Ukraine. The Ukrainian 137th Tractor Corps appears to be #2 at this point.
Here’s a Brookings Institution article on Crimea:
So what happened to the population of Crimea after the annexation? Russian loyalists were moved in and people who had been there for generations were encouraged to move out. Many of those were Crimean Tartars who had been expelled from the territory by Stalin and survived the ordeal, managed to return in 1989.
Russian propaganda claims Crimea to be rightfully the possession of Russia. There are Russian speakers there, so this must surely be the case. I don’t doubt they would treat the Baltic states, who suffered similar deportations during Stalins time, in the same manner.
I guess the temptation is for many other larger countries is to simply regard such territories not as nations with a discrete national identity, language and ethnicity, but convenient bargaining chips. A bone to toss to the hungry Russian bear?
Apparently many of the Crimean Tatars moved to Kyiv and they run some of the better restaurants. Similar, in that respect, to the Georgians in Moscow…until that other invasion turn things sour.
After the annexation of Crimea by Russian Federation, Crimean Tatars are reportedly persecuted and discriminated by Russian authorities, including cases of torture, arbitrary detentions, forced disappearances by Russian security forces and courts.
This explains the tank bunkers and minefields that appeared outside Keiv last week. The Russians will primarily focus on Donbas region. But, the troops outside Keiv aren’t leaving. They’re fortifying their position.
That’s completely unacceptable for Ukraine. They’ll be under threat for years and they’ll still lose access to the Azov Sea ports.
I’m not sure Ukraine has the offensive capability to retake their territory. They need more long range missiles and air power.
“This is my last territorial demand”.
Maybe not this time around.
Russia will, if allowed to stay there, simply restart their offensive as soon as they resupply and come up with a better plan. They will come up with a bullshit excuse and attack as soon as possible.