No, they don’t. There are other compromises. Agree to not join NATO. Accept that Russia owns Crimea.
I just remembered this scene and I am completely shocked we haven’t seen it memed into the ground over the last month.
Reading the last 30 or so posts, this thread has taken a pretty positive note, assuming that Russia is about to be defeated.
I certainly hope it’s true.
But I have a question-- about tactics, and the weather:
Could all this feel-good news about negotiations just be a delaying tactic?
The official statement by the US ,(quoted in post 3606 above) says that they have not yet seen any real change in deployment of the Russian army.
So I started wondering what’s really going on.
Specifically–what’s up with the mud season?
Wiki says that the mud lasts for 4 to 6 weeks every spring, which means that in another week or two it may be possible for all those Russian tanks to leave the asphalt and move in any direction they want. Could the Russians be planning a larger assault,but are just waiting for the ground to dry out?
Despite losing about 200 tanks, they still have a thousand vehicles (a couple hundred of tanks, and a couple hundred heavy artillery that are functioning, don’t they? They could flatten parts of major cities with artillery shells.
The press is full of reports emphasizing Russian weaknesses, and making it look like they will lose the war.*
But as the mud dries, could they re-group and attack again?
*(For example, those surprising reports of frostbite. I couldn’t find any firm numbers. It looks like one captured Russian soldier said that he had seen some of his buddies with frostbite, and somebody intercepted a single radio message from a company commander.)
I never watched Seinfeld. I’ve seen bits of it of course, but never actually watched it. Anyway, here’s the clip:
This is the first time I’ve seen it (and I think they should have left in the first second or so), but a video meme exists:
Without fuel they aren’t going anywhere, mud or no mud, and I’ve seen no evidence the Russian army’s gotten their logistical ducks in a row.
I confess I thought the same thing as well. One of the (many) things that have put the screws to all the Russian armor is that they’ve been more or less restricted to movement on the roads. That’s not how armor is used effectively. They should ideally fan out, quickly encircle, and attack from multiple directions. I guess part of me still wants to think of Russia as the USSR. You know, a formidable adversary. With so much firepower available, it just seems wrong to underestimate that potential.
I’m not willing to give one square foot of American soil to the seditionists who want to start Confederacy 2.0…why the hell should we give any to this bargain-basement Stalin who, based upon the evidence of the last few weeks, couldn’t organize a panty raid at Vassar??
Sorry, but I’m in the “slap Putin in the face with a haddock until he apologizes” camp. Clear any and all Russians out of Donbas, et.al., give Crimea back to Ukraine, slink off back to Gorky Park, and maybe we’ll drop some of the sanctions.
Russia is not going to lose the war. They’ve lost the war. Now it is simply a case of can they cause enough damage to force Ukraine into conceding some territory (I think likely not except for the Crimea question, which depends much on the local populace). Logistics and morale win wars. Russia has neither, and that’s not going to change just because the mud goes away. Also, Russia has no additional assets that it can realistically move into the fight. Right now the average Russian trooper does not believe they can win. They think that sooner or later there’s a bullet with their name on it. Managing troops is a tricky thing. Soldiers can be very good at “following orders” without following orders. Doing things in a way that will not get them arrested or shot, but does not really fulfil the objective. You can bring a soldier to the battlefield but it can be hard to get them to fight if they’re convinced they’re going to die. Now, you can put them in a situation where they will die if they don’t fight. And a lot of people will simply break, and do nothing until they do die (maybe some panic fire). But if you want to win battles, if you want to move towards your objectives, you absolutely must have soldiers that are going to get it done because they believe it can be done. The Russian troops are almost certainly scared of the Ukrainian military and their civilian resistance. A javelin behind every tree. A drone over every hill. And so on.
At this point we’re way past “estimating” anything. We are directly observing the reality on the ground.
Honestly, I’ve always just been amazed that it was a standard Risk board. How does one even get that at all useable on the subway? (Yes, I know it’s both fiction and comedy).
And to be fair, Ukraine is hard to hold. There’s something like five adjacent territories. One or two opponents can definitely take it from you unless you’re really willing to put a lot of troops in it.
Anyway, put me in the take of “Ukraine should tell Russia they get nothing, but if concessions must be made Crimea is probably more acceptable than the Donbas.”
It’s easy to get excited by peace negotiations. I hope they are successful.
It’s still wise to remember Putin is calling the shots.
Guardian Live blog
It also helps immensely to have a force the believes it is worth doing. The Ukrainians are fighting for a cause, the Russians not so much.
How does playing for time help Russia? I thought that would help Ukraine more.
Could you please work on sounding less like a Putin supporter in these threads. It is disturbing to say the least.
Another setback for Russia.
There are reports that a major munitions dump – over the border inside Russia – was hit by a Ukrainian missile.
Wiki says that the mud lasts for 4 to 6 weeks every spring, which means that in another week or two it may be possible for all those Russian tanks to leave the asphalt and move in any direction they want.
I’ve wondered that myself, but we keep hearing about cold temperatures in eastern Ukraine. I wonder if the rasputitsa is later than usual this year. If that’s the case, that’s another logistical nightmare for Russia.
I’m confused : Is accepting that Russia owns Crimea not giving up territory?
Disturbing and unfortunate if true:
Prince Feisal: With Major Lawrence, mercy is a passion. With me, it is merely good manners.
Shooting prisoners is bad manners.
The problem is that the Russian state is so dishonest and deceitful that one can literally believe nothing that comes from them. Creating false flag war crime videos is absolutely 100% something that they would do.
I haven’t seen prior reports of targets hit in Russia. Is this a first or have I missed others?