From Andrei Soldatov, a top expert on the Russian security services.
Some snippets:
…
OR: Let’s go back to the beginning. How do you explain the massive intelligence and policy failures that led Putin to start this war? Do you think that Russia’s intelligence agencies shared his fantasies about Ukraine?
Soldatov: Russia’s intelligence agencies might not be extremely competent, but they’re not that stupid. Of course they understood that nobody wants to join a new Soviet Union or any of that. …
So it was a terrible miscalculation, but not because of the intelligence. It was because of Putin himself.
…
OR: What do you make of the recent American claims that Putin is being misinformed by his aides about the progress of the war?
Soldatov: I think it’s true. … We know what his initial war plan was, right? It involved airstrikes combined with sending vehicle columns deep into Ukraine. Now, this plan crashed immediately, as soon as it faced reality on the battleground. But Russia’s tactics didn’t change for more than a month, which is absolutely astonishing. They kept sending these columns deep into Ukrainian territory for weeks and weeks and weeks. And you would only do that if your leader was still convinced that the initial plan was absolutely fine.
…
OR: What you’re saying suggests massive disarray within the Russian state, the military, the political apparatus, and the intelligence services, as though everything is breaking down.
Or very reasonable, depending on your point of view.
There is no requirement that Ukraine claims any attack as their own.
If they don’t claim credit then perhaps the Russians will wonder if it was some of their own - either mistaken (because we’ve seen a lot of lost Russians in this war) or rebellion.
It is possible it might have been a third party, but I find that unlikely at this point.
It certainly raises the potential of a third party but I’d say that a Russian accident, a Russian false flag operation, a Ukrainian acting out of orders, or Ukraine trying to confuse things all seem more likely.
If it is a false flag operation then that would seem to increase the potential that they’re planning to bring in less discriminate weapons (nukes, chemical weapons, etc.) and need a justification.
Agreed. They just don’t like it when people are shooting back at them. That’s when they decide they don’t want to go. Kill unarmed civilians, women and childen? Sure. Fight against armed soldiers? Pass.
If regrouping actually accomplishes anything, which it won’t if they continue to lack food, fuel, ammunition and other supplies. I.E., the distinction between falling back and being routed.
Russia is redeploying elements of its forces from Georgia to reinforce its invasion of Ukraine , British military intelligence said on Thursday.
Between 1,200 and 2,000 of these Russian troops are being reorganised into 3x Battalion Tactical Groups,” Britain’s ministry of defence said.
It is highly unlikely that Russia planned to generate reinforcements in this mannerand it is indicative of the unexpected losses it has sustained during the invasion.”
This may be a good time for Georgia to re-assert it’s autonomy. After 2008, the Georgians have no love for the Russians.
If Georgia is up for it, then this seems like a peachy keen time for them to join in. Russia seems to have a few resource problems. Why not make them worse?
Well, they’d probably end with various cities being shelled/rocketed. Now that could be a good tradeoff, but it’s not a cost free opportunity for Georgia.
At this point, I think they’re going with “Trolling the Troll”. Russia is so used to being the one doing the lying, being lied to is probably messing with their heads.