At a gut level, notwithstanding the fact that most Russians are probably either ignorant of what’s really happening or in no position to control anything, a nasty part of me thinks that Russia deserves to have a modern version of the Morgenthau plan inflicted upon them.
In reality, however, if this ever ends, and in the West’s favour, we’ll probably have to offer Russia some sort of Marshall plan.
Assuming it ends with minimal incursion into Russia proper (the occasional fuel depot or rail line notwithstanding), I don’t see. Lift the sanctions (on some timetable), and that should be it. What would you rebuild, their military capability?
This is the critical question IMO, and it is rendered extremely complex and messy by Russia’s nuclear arsenal. I think that it would have to be some tricky balance of making sure that the west doesn’t create an extremely bitter, furious-at-the-west Russian population a la Treaty of Versaille, against ensuring that they can never be a threat again. And if I was a gambling man, I would be tempted to give Ukraine an immediate membership in NATO right now and then go in and help Ukraine get rid of the invaders and clean up the mess.
Genetically no. Culturally yes.
Good luck with that. Marshall plans can’t really be offered. They have to be imposed when the enemy gives an unconditional surrender. And the West has been loath to ask for unconditional surrenders since the end of WWII. Even when we’ve had total military superiority like with Iraq and Afghanistan, we refused to impose anything like a Marshall plan.
Boris wants to provide anti-ship missiles to protect Odessa and other Port cities. It’s not been decided.
Imho Russia cannot be allowed a coastal invasion. Especially after the human atrocities around Kiev. They’ll do the same in Odessa. There’s a million people that will displaced or slaughtered. It’s also a vital port for the export of the world’s wheat.
The original article is the British Sunday Times. Its linked and unfortunately, pay walled.
Oh, agreed. I expect it’s a combination of culture and the stress of finding themselves in an actual war – plus the stress of realizing, on whatever level, that they’re losing that war.
But it does also mean that compassion for Ukrainians isn’t widespread enough to stop the Russian army from doing this kind of shit; even in situations in which it must be utterly obvious that that’s what they’re doing. You might be able to convince troops shelling from a distance that they’re aiming at military targets and/or at Nazis; hard to do that when they’re murdering a child close up.
I fully get your thinking on this except a “Marshal plan” involves political reconstruction imposed on a vanquished regime.
In this case the regime is the problem internally as well as externally. It has to be brought down from within before the West can help. The Russian people need to understand that a tremendous amount of their tax wealth was used to keep oligarchs in power. They could have been partners with Europe and been a wealthy nation. Instead, a massive amount of their tax base went into maintaining an aggressor nation that threatens it’s neighbors. Nothing really changed with the fall of the Soviet Union.
Latest Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses:
Lots of luck with war crime trials too.
I agree. Germany and Japan were completely defeated and occupied. That’s what allowed the War Crimes Trials.
The best anyone can hope is Russia totally withdraws troops and pays token reparations. That would require lifting Western sanctions.
I certainly get all the negative comments about some sort of Marshall plan for Russia, however - and I really don’t know how doable this could ever be in these circumstances, somehow the west has to try to create the conditions in which most of the Russian population don’t hate us and want pay-back.
Do I think that it’s possible? Probably not, and it’s depressing that Putin has done this to the world for the next few decades.
I doubt Russia will pay a dime towards reparations. I doubt they can. There will be no war crime trials. Putin thinks he was right and it’s Ukraines fault for not falling to its knees.
I wonder if there is a way to get to Putins billions (100’s ?) and seize it. I doubt it, but it might be a start.
I hate keeping the sanctions, and am troubled what it may do to the average Russian (and it’s going to fuck with the rest of the world as well). But I think they will need to remain in place for a while.
Perhaps that will encourage change from within.
Sadly I think that you’re right and that we are sort of screwed.
The best we can hope for is that Russia can somehow be disarmed and prevented from rearming. Even that is extremely unlikely. I think the most likely scenario is a new Cold War in which we have to hope that the more rational thinkers in Russia keep the “if I can’t have it then nobody else can” thinkers under control.
Ukraine is just another Russian province. These people who steadfastly deny this and persist in using that fucked-up orthography are traitorous nuiances. The more of these obstinate criminals we kill, the easier it will be to make the others understand the error of their ways.
Indeed, and the whole bloody thing is compromised and threatened by Russia’s nuclear weapons.
Yeah, I donno. I’m conflicted about it. Continuing sanctions is just going to piss off the Russian people. It will be blamed on the ‘West’ and Ukraine.
Perhaps lift some sanctions (anything that involves food), invite Ukraine into NATO, help rebuild Ukraine and arm them (conventional) to the teeth.
Germany was allowed to blame most of its collective sins on one man. With Putin out of the picture Russia may be allowed to do the same. If Russians do the deed themselves it will allow the rest of the world to at least pretend all is forgiven.
I’m committing this atrocity because the child may want to kill me for the atrocities I’ve been committing. So many poor broken people are going to come out of this.