Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

[The_Stainless_Steel_Rat]

Why can’t a nation of 330 million produce one politician who (given the usual translation glitches) can speak like that?

@velomont

To me, however, this situation is different. I think that regarding WW II we were all, for the most part, able to look back on that as the end of a bad era in human history, and that we as a species might be starting to mature.

I would also note with the Cold War with Russia and the Communist takeover of China, suddenly Germany and Japan were the front lines again, but this time on ‘our’ side.

[Lumpy]

@Lamoral

@Walken_After_Midnight

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1510735976901103617

I’m just not buying that. It took Germany and Japan a lot less than 80 years to “live down” what happened in World War II and both of them did a lot worse than anything Russia has done in Ukraine

However, Germany and Japan both paid dearly in that the cream of their young men were obliterated, their cities leveled, their governments destroyed and many high-ranking figures executed for their deeds. Russia will not pay anywhere near that penance.

[Northern_Piper]

And, they were occupied and had their governance taken over by the Allies / US, with the US even writing a new Constitution for Japan. That’s not going to be happening.

[Mighty_Mouse]

@The_Stainless_Steel_Rat

Why can’t a nation of 330 million produce one politician who (given the usual translation glitches) can speak like that?

The primaries.

[eschereal]

@Lamoral

I’m just not buying that. It took Germany, and Japan, a lot less than 80 years to “live down” what happened in World War II and both of them did a lot worse than anything Russia has done in Ukraine.

Germany was invaded and overrun by the allied forces. Mussolini was hanged by his own people. Japan surrendered under somewhat unfavorable terms. The axis was unequivocally defeated. This is very unlikely to be the result in this case. Russia will withdraw, but they will not be delivered a clear defeat, just a failed enterprise.

As an unvanquished aggressor (no one is likely to chase them into Mother Russia as that never turns out well) who will retain their same psychopathic leader (Hirohito was at least a person who understood the meaning of honor), they will be viewed warily up until a sea change happens within, and probably even well after that.

[JRDelirious]

@eschereal

Russia will withdraw, but they will not be delivered a clear defeat, just a failed enterprise.

Which is a problem with a self-identified major power “losing” while still able to convince themselves “but we were not defeated fair and square!” Plenty of Dolchstoßlegende-fodder at hand. It was trade sanctions, it was corrupt Army/FSB officers, it was being soft on liberal values, it was unpatriotic degenerates in our own population, it was outsiders arming the fascists, it was perfidious NATO not abiding by the “deal” to not move eastward, … but in a just world we should have prevailed.

[Tamerlane]

@velomont

I think that regarding WW II we were all, for the most part, able to look back on that as the end of a bad era in human history, and that we as a species might be starting to mature.

With all due respect, I think this is a little naive. War never changes and neither do people. We’re always going to be capable of great evil. As evidence I can cite every significant or even most not-so-significant nasty, brutish war and insurgency since the end of WW II. The Mỹ Lai massacre happened just about a generation after the end of WW II. The Srebrenica massacre was, again roughly, a generation after that. It’s about a generation later and none of this surprises me.

We’ve arguably made a little progress. There seem to be fewer brush fires every year than they once were. But I think it is more realism than cynicism on my part when I say I doubt we’re ever going to entirely purge this kind of grotesque violence from human society.

[mordecaiB]

@The_Other_Waldo_Pepper

Post #3766.

Thanks. Looks like it may be two different incidents as the cities are quite far apart. What a strange coincidence.

@JRDelirious

Which is a problem with a self-identified major power “losing” while still able to convince themselves “but we were not defeated fair and square!” Plenty of Dolchstoßlegende -fodder at hand. It was trade sanctions, it was corrupt Army/FSB officers, it was being soft on liberal values, it was unpatriotic degenerates in our own population, it was outsiders arming the fascists, it was perfidious NATO not abiding by the “deal” to not move eastward, … but in a just world we should have prevailed .

Yeah, we will be hearing some variant of this over and over again. It would probably be wise for the Jews that remain in Russia to quickly leave. Slowly but surely, countries will lift sanctions because they need what Russia has to offer. Cries about war crimes will fade to nothing. Countries will decide Ukraine has received enough aid, but will continue to sell them high priced military equipment. And it will suck to be a Ukrainian trying to rebuild their country for 20 years just to get back to where they were in 2021. Russia will go back to being Russia, with the rich stealing even more billions and buying more yachts.

@Tamerlane

We’ve arguably made a little progress. There seem to be fewer brush fires every year than they once were. But I think it is more realism than cynicism on my part when I say I doubt we’re ever going to entirely purge this kind of grotesque violence from human society.

I think you are spot on. People are people, and someone is always going to want what the other one has, or hate the other one for a usually senseless reason. Ukraine is a prime example. There was no need for this war. Putin started it because he wanted to and because he could. Someone is always killing someone, even if it doesn’t make the daily news.

[GreenWyvern]

Institute for the Study of War

Key Takeaways

• Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv, and Russian forces are completing their withdrawals from both the east and the west banks of the Dnipro in disorder.
• Russian forces retreating from around Kyiv will likely need considerable time before they can return to combat.
• Incidents of refusals of orders to engage in combat operations among Russian units continue and may lead to the redeployment of two BTGs that had arrived near Donbas within the last few days to their home stations in South Ossetia.
• The continued existence of an independent Ukrainian state with its capital in Kyiv is no longer in question at this time, although much fighting remains and the war could still turn Russia’s way.

[TokyoBayer]

@eschereal

Japan surrendered under somewhat unfavorable terms.

It was not “somewhat unfavorable terms” but a complete surrender, with the only condition was the the emperor was retained, but his position of authority was removed. In all other regards, it was an unconditional surrender and Japan was occupied.

[aceplace57]

I think more Russian equipment will be found as Ukrainian forces retake their cities.

I wonder if Ukraine can really secure these cities from lawlessness and looting? It’s good that a lot of the people already evacuated. The local governments have to be reestablished and city services put back in place. The basics of providing food and safe water will be challenging.

It’s still a war zone. International Aid Workers can’t come in until it’s safer.

The Kyiv Independent

[aceplace57]

I’m finding the channel very useful in following the tactics of the war. I would want more details if I was a Ukrainian volunteer. I find it helpful when I see combat footage from Ukraine.

Three examples of his short videos (TikTok style)

How to ambush a tank in an urban environment

A textbook anti-tank ambush.

Why are Russian logistics so bad in Ukraine?

[FlikTheBlue]

@Tamerlane

We’ve arguably made a little progress. There seem to be fewer brush fires every year than they once were. But I think it is more realism than cynicism on my part when I say I doubt we’re ever going to entirely purge this kind of grotesque violence from human society

I think a lot of luck, both bad and good, is involved in these sorts of things. Imagine if the Nationalists had won the Chinese Civil War, and if Gorbachev had led Russia in the 90s instead of Yeltsin. The world would probably a much better place than it is now. On the other hand, had a few people in the top levels of the US military thrown in with Trump, the US might be a full blown authoritarian state by now. We were extremely lucky to have General Milley.

Ukraine got lucky with Zelensky. In a slightly different world they’d probably already be under Russian domination, with an even larger number of pro-democracy supporters killed or sent to the gulag.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔞𝔡 𝔇𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔯𝔦𝔠𝔱

[Love_Rhombus]

@JRDelirious

but in a just world we should have prevailed .

…so it was a Lost Cause? Sounds familiar.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

A couple of threads.

The first discusses a recently-published piece by one of Russia’s main state-owned domestic news agencies:

Yesterday, RIA Novosti published a lengthy piece titled “What Russia should do with Ukraine”, which explains in detail what Russia understands by denazification. It’s truly horrific: 1/6

The special operation revealed that not only the political leadership in Ukraine is Nazi, but also the majority of the population. All Ukrainians who have taken up arms must be eliminated - because they are responsible for the genocide of the Russian people. 2/6

Ukrainians disguise their Nazism by calling it a “desire for independence” and a “European way of development”. Ukraine doesn’t have a Nazi party, a Führer or racial laws, but because of its flexibility, Ukrainian Nazism is far more dangerous to the world than Hitler’s Nazism 3/6

Denazification means de-Ukrainianisation. Ukrainians are an artificial anti-Russian construct. They should no longer have a national identity. Denazification of Ukraine also means its inevitable de-Europeanisation. 4/6

Ukraine’s political elite must be eliminated as it cannot be re-educated. Ordinary Ukrainians must experience all the horrors of war and absorb the experience as a historical lesson and atonement for their guilt. 5/6

The liberated and denazified territory of the Ukrainian state should no longer be called Ukraine. Denazification should last at least one generation - 25 years. Then the author goes on to detail exactly what needs to be done:

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1510908227202002947

Another thread from the Head of Political Philosophy, The Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences:

Unfortunately, I am not surprised by the atrocities in the occupied zone in Bucha. One thing people tend to underestimate is the narrative built in Russia to justify this war. It sounds so outlandish to most observers that it is too easily written off. But it works. A🧵1/11

The narrative mounted by Putin from the first days of war focuses on “de-nazification” of Ukraine. Nazism is understood in Russia (just like anywhere else) as an absolute evil. However, it is seen an external evil, Russia is by definition free from Nazism (we defeated it!) 2/11

It follows that Nazism is an external enemy that should be destroyed at any cost. The initial view was that Nazis have seized power in Ukraine, while ordinary Ukrainians are just some sort of Russians with silly ideas about their identity and a ridiculous language 3/11

This meant “de-nazification” could be completed through regime change & Ukrainians should be liberated. Obviously, this conception failed when Ukrainians started resisting bravely. A natural conclusion from that: Ukrainians turned out to be deeply infected by Nazism 4/11

Therefore, liberation means purification. I have expanded on that a bit: 5/11

And this is precisely how the message of official speakers has changed recently. Here Margarita Simonyan is saying precisely this: we have underestimated how deep Nazism has permeated Ukrainian society. Now liberation means purification 6/11

That affects the operational choices by the troops on the ground. Imagine you are a Russian soldier occupying a city in Ukraine (I know it is an unpleasant experiment). What are the classifications and distinctions you would use when dealing with the local population? 7/11

Your basic theory is that this is a land occupied by the Nazis, and you are here to liberate it. Obviously, Nazis will resist; and those resisting are Nazis. Your primary task is to separate the Nazis from poor Ukrainians & make the city clean from Nazism 8/11

This is why we already see the filtration camps operating near Mariupol. The process of filtration reportedly involves many locations inside Russia, which means the whole concept of filtration operations was pre-planned. Once again, the purity narrative is crucial here 9/11

This is why I seriously doubt these atrocities are just excesses of war. Every war excites the worst in people, especially when commanders are rogue. However, the systematic and consistent actions owe more to the way war is justified than to affects like revenge 10/11

If you feel like this logic of purification actually reminds of Nazi thinking, I think there’s a lot of truth to that. I will probably make a separate thread on why probably has no immunity against Nazism.
I am afraid the worst thing are yet to follow. Hope I’m wrong. END

https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1510577039279071232

I do get the worrying feeling that Russia’s war could get truly genocidal.

[Northern_Piper]

That would be consistent with the Russian army in Grozny and Aleppo.

[RickJay]

@Cervaise

Another option: frustrated Russian soldiers trying to impede and sabotage their own military, hoping to derail their own pending deployment and thus save their skins

Not at all the most likely scenario, by a wide margin, but possible.

Really, the likeliest - by a long shot - scenario is it was a Ukrainian operation and they’re just trying to keep the Russians off balance.

[BeepKillBeep]

@The_Stainless_Steel_Rat

Why can’t a nation of 330 million produce one politician who (given the usual translation glitches) can speak like that?

I’ve been saying to my friends a lot lately “Zelensky for Prime Minister (of Canada)”.

[velomont]

@Walken_After_Midnight

I do get the worrying feeling that Russia’s war could get truly genocidal.

And I believe that it will be amazing if it doesn’t stop in Ukraine, unfortunately.