Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

From the NYT live blog:

German intelligence has intercepted radio transmissions in which Russian forces discussed carrying out indiscriminate killings north of Kyiv, the capital, according to two officials briefed on an intelligence report.

The conversations were intercepted from Russian military radio and include one Russian telling another that first you interrogate people and then you kill them. The intercepts were reported earlier by the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel.

It could not be confirmed whether the radio transmissions collected by German intelligence were from Bucha or another place near the capital, one of the officials said.

I’m glad they have this - the more evidence the better.

The U.S. has allies that aren’t in NATO, FYI.

And we have different treaties with them, but not all of NATO does.

Not to sound defeatist, but will this really matter? Putin’s never going to trial, nor are his military bosses. Not unless he throws them under the bus.

Yes they do. The US has security guarantees with some of them, too.

With Ukraine, it doesn’t, beyond a promise to not attack Ukraine.

It’s another data point to counter Russia’s lies, and to show to any of those other countries still sitting on the fence.

We don’t know what is going to happen in the future. This kind of stuff may become a valuable thing to have.

Here’s an interesting tidbit from ISW’s assessment of April 6:

Ukrainian Military Intelligence reported increasing Russian censorship in an effort to combat growing morale problems among Russian troops. Ukraine’s GUR reported that Russian officers are intensifying censorship of their troops and restricting access to the internet due to low morale.[1] The GUR claimed that Russian commanders complain about increasing Ukrainian influence over the information consumed by Russian soldiers. The GUR claimed to have intercepted an extract from an order issued by the Deputy Commander of the Western Military District for military and political work, which blamed low Russian morale on the internet and social media. The document reportedly instructs Russian officers to either ban or severely censor all messages received by personnel, as well as access to the internet. Draconian measures to restrict access to information among Russian personnel will likely further exacerbate low morale and desertion rates.

I really hope this is true. Russia richly deserves payback for all the media manipulation they’ve done over the years.

Somewhat random, but I’m curious what the feasibility would be to 3D print some full sized tank shells? The specific thought would be to cause Russian defenses to waste ammo firing on dummies, in an attack. Though, I could also see applications for defense and generating red herrings.

Obviously, any success would be matched by the opposite side trying to do the same.

Sad thing is that 10 rubles is about a US Dime. :scream:

Dummy vehicles have already been used. No need for 3D printers.

Inflatable tank from WWII:

I believe South Africa gets credit for Mr. Dibble.

Shit, I meant “blow up the tires”!

Yes I demonstrated my essential laziness in not checking his profile :smile:

The thing is, the Ukrainians are fighting an existential threat to a nation of 40+ million, and if only 1/2 or 1/3 of that number of citizens fights that’s still larger than any army on Earth. Versus the Russian army which, although large, is “only” about 3.5 million including reserves. The Russians are outnumbered more than 10:1, maybe as many as 20:1. The Russians have fewer people to lose.

I’ll note that such calculus is absolutely horrific, but that’s war for you.

Russia was using inflatable decoys just last year:

If Ukraine population is 41.5M and Russia’s is 145M, how is it that Russia has fewer people to lose?

Well, Russia will have to start by bringing more of those 145M closer to Ukraine if they want them to invade.

All Ukranians (or ½ or ⅓), who are fighting for their existence, vs. the Russian military.

The Ukrainians are fighting because they don’t have anything to lose. There are some, ineffectual thus far, protests against the war as it is in Russia. If they try to mobilize even a fraction of their 145M population, some of them will calculate that they have less to lose from working against the regime than to be sent to their deaths.

One of the two sides is REALLY facing an existential threat. And it’s not the one that keeps whining about how anything and everything that doesn’t go theor way is one.