Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Now I want to be teaching a writing class and giving as an assignment “write the story that goes with this headline”.

People are returning to Kyiv. Linked is a brief audio clip and transcript.

I realize it’s still dangerous but Ukraine needs a functioning Capital. It’s good for morale and the economy.

Some interesting political analysis.

What’s that screen about “checking your browser”? when you click on that link?

Putin thinks a coup is a real possibility, as shown by his actions. New measures against public dissent. Restricting access of soldiers to their families. Elimination of potential threats within the security services. I’m sure there’s more. These are not actions of someone confident in their authority.

I see that message on a lot of web sites. Page formatting works slightly different on various browsers. I have wondered why the message is needed. Checking the browser is pretty standard.

Is he still holed up in the bunker?

(Not asking you specifically. Just taking off from your comment.)

I mentioned WW-1 and WW-II because the consequences were substantial. Europe is a considerable chunk of the functioning free-world planet.

Since there is no logic to Putin’s conquest of Ukraine it’s reasonable to consider all of Europe at risk.

Imho A Russian coup is the West’s best hope to end the war. The next leader will still be a dictator but it’s in Russia’s best interests to have sanctions lifted. I think a new leader would negotiate with Ukraine.

I agree with the Kyiv Independent article. It’s going to be awhile before conditions are right for a coup.

Do we have any idea who the successor is likely to be at this point, given Putin’s deliberate hobbling of anyone smart and competent enough to be a threat? And should we be starting to plan for them?

There were a few reports about a plan by Aleksandr Bortnikov, the head of the FSB, to overthrow Putin but I’ve not seen many heavyweight serious news sources talking about it

https://dailyangle.com/articles/report-putin-s-overthrow-being-planned-fsb-head-identified-as-possible-successor

However the FSB is hardly a democracy-loving organisation. They do all of Putin’s really dirty work.

EDIT: I’m unfamiliar with the site I just posted a link to, but just found the story being reported there.

Eh, what? There is a considerable amount of logic to Putin’s attack on Ukraine. A lot of very bad assumptions as well, but in a vacuum it is a perfectly sane bit of ruthless realpolitik. Especially if you’re an authoritarian strongman who is paranoid about being encircled and who also happens to be a nationalist eager to leave a legacy of rebuilding the Russian empire from the ashes of the old USSR.

I don’t really get this ‘Putin is nuts’ meme. There is as yet no reliable indication he is. Living in an over-optimistic, low-information bubble surrounded by nervous yes man? Sure looks like it. But has he degenerated into a frothing madman? Possible, but I doubt it.

This.

This one I would read, especially once I looked up what a slide whistle was. We could give Ukraine billions of those if they retail for $1. Cost is probably .25 and you could fit a bunch of those in a C-17. Ukrainians would have to make their own slingshots, those are well over a dollar.

Nuts, psychopath, Satan incarnate. Whatever word fits. He’s a mass murdering piece of shit who is responsible for many thousands of deaths including his own people.

I don’t buy the low-information bubble one tiny bit. he has access to the internet just like everybody else. He knows EXACTLY what is going on and is responsible for a scorched Earth policy.

IMO he was always a frothing madman. Just look at the assassinations he’s ordered. He couldn’t be any more of a frothing madman.

IANA psychiatrist or psychologist, and maybe Putin’s behaviour isn’t described in the DSM but, at the very least, his behaviour (in terms of foreign relations at this specific point) is wildly and bizarrely out of touch with the norms of the post-1945 first world.

This would be like living next door to someone in some banal, reasonably well-off suburb and some leaves fall from your tree into the neighbour’s pool and he then challenges you to a duel - maybe okay in the 17th or 18th century, but not now. Or if you’re in a movie theatre and, as a result of your sneezing a couple of times, the guy in front whips around and stabs you to death for making too much noise.

Maybe, technically, it’s not psychologically unusual behaviour, but it’s certain nowhere near normal.

The most ridiculous example I saw was last week, an article that claimed that even Ukrainian honeybees were fed up with the Russian invaders and attacked them, stinging 3 to death while wounding 25.

Yes, all of this sort of thing belies the fact that there is an appalling tragedy taking place. Even if, by everybody’s standards, Ukraine wins, there’s going to be an entire country’s worth of destroyed buildings and millions of PTSD cases.

Yeah, where’s the tractor? :crazy_face:

I guess we didn’t mean it when we said never again. The bombing of the train station(s) trapping the survivors in the area and then starve them to death or shoot them after they’ve raped them and pulled their tongues out.

This is barbaric. So many thousands of lives lost. I can’t stand it. Seriously, I’m having a really hard time today. I had to go to Home Depot and almost lost it when a sad song came on.

Fucking hell, so much evil.