I don’t know, but I’m wondering whether these are relevant:
Day 49 of the war and I am still hoping on the edge of my seat for a Russian attack on a NATO nation or whatever it takes to trigger Article 5…
It goes way back.
So you’re hoping for more people to die. Personally I’m hoping “on the edge of my seat” for peace talks to move forward and negotiate an end to this conflict, but different strokes, I guess.
No, I’m hoping for less people to die.
The longer this war goes on as a bloody stalemate that drags on for years and years, the longer the death toll continues - and things like lack of food, medicine, take a greater toll as well. A swift all-out conventional intervention in Ukraine could end this thing in a week and then the rebuilding can begin.
Swift removal of bandage in 2 seconds vs agonizing slow pull off over minutes.
I realize this is old ground… But a swift NATO intervention in Ukraine would very likely result in a nuclear response from Russia, which would turn into a complete nuclear strike on every major city in the Western Hemisphere.
The possibility of this is very real, and must be taken into account.
Way to miss the point. Russia can inflict misery and destruction on Ukraine for months or years eventually killing millions and displacing tens of millions.
So long as a bigger dog doesn’t enter the fight, that seems to be the plan. Destroy, depopulate, consolidate, colonize, destroy, depopulate, etc.
It’s a risk. But I doubt it’s “very likely.” However, we can agree that even a small risk of global annihilation is a bad thing.
So it’s in NOBODY’s best interest for Russia to attack a NATO country. Hoping for this to happen, as a means to ending the conflict in Ukraine, seems to me like hoping for someone to shove an M-80 down your drawers because you’ve got a wart on your pecker.
Or you know, the other thing. I really wonder if there is an actual red line. Maybe in response to chemical weapons a one-time massive strike inside of Ukraine on Russian positions with a “don’t do it again” warning? Its a dangerous game. Unfortunately, a protracted war might cost less lives in the end.
Unrelated - I saw anti-ship missiles were being sent. How long before we could see one of those deployed and how effective are they against large ships? What kind of platform do they require? A successful use would be a morale booster, if nothing else.
The red line is NATO Article 5.
Befroe that, you’ll see strong but indirect responses to an escalation like non-nuclear WMD use on a Ukrainian target.
I understand but I meant in Ukraine. If the Russians publicly executed hundreds of civilians at once or posted video of mass rapes, would everyone just yawn? Minimally, there ought to be some sort of covert action. Easier said than done, however.
Maybe I’m a bit slow, but I don’t even understand this. Why is a Russian making a Nazi salute and why would he think it’s funny? Most importantly, why is there an International Go-Kart League?
Can you point me to something with enough details to make a guess? I don’t see any real info other than a couple of soldiers were temporarily sick but are fine now. Nothing about if it was in gas form or aerosol or anything else. No info on if they moved everyone out of the suspected contaminated area.
While I’m willing to bet Russia will use chemical weapons if it suits their plans, I don’t think this is an example of it. Chemical weapons are area weapons. They are not made to drop a small amount on a few soldiers. And it’s not like Russia needs to do a test run. They have used chemical weapons all over the place.
As long as we are being a bit lighthearted here, I like this quote from an articleon Russian tank losses. Bolding is mine.
"Many tanks have been abandoned because of bad driving. Some have been driven off bridges. Others have been driven into ditches so that the tracks have come off. The ability of the troops to use their equipment has been lacking.
“But often, soldiers have simply abandoned their vehicles and fled. So the will to fight has also been lacking.”
The Ukrainian government has even issued instructions on how citizens should turn in abandoned military vehicles.
Authorities also confirmed that anyone who found such “combat trophies” did not need to declare them for tax purposes.
Way back in the Falkland War, the UK lost 4 ships to the Exocet missile. I believe all those were launched from aircraft, but you can launch them from ship or land also. I’m sure things have improved greatly since then.
Bit of excluded middle there.
NATO would not intervene in active combat. The standing assumption is that the terms of Article 5 work in reverse, too: an attack by a NATO member risks a response tagainst any and all NATO members.
There would be sanction escalation and/or military aid to the victims. I would wish that there would be some kind of “robust humanitarian response”, like an armed convoy to relieve Mariupol which forces the siege line without starting a fight, but their mere presence would probably trigger a Russian attack, so instant Article 5.
So MAD doesn’t work anymore?
I understand the Ukrainian military is taking foreign volunteers. Even absent a massive escalation, every little bit helps, right?
Entry into Formula-1. Charles LeClerc, this year’s F1 leader, for example, was the runner-up champion in 2013 for the World KZ Championship. Michael Schumacher was a runner-up in 1984. It’s a step in the progression to F1 racing.
MAD still works. We just need to consider that nuclear weapons aren’t the only means of destruction. Destruction is destruction, and if it comes at the hands of hundreds of Abrams tanks, A-10 Warthogs, F-16s, and Apache attack helicopters rather than nuclear weapons, that might not matter to those getting destroyed. It’s still destruction and runs the risk of triggering the mutually assured part. Since it’s now obvious that Russia lacks the means to respond conventionally, that means nuclear weapons are what they would turn to.
MAD only works if both sides realize (and agree) that destroying the world is a Bad Idea and Something to be Avoided™.
We were pretty sure the leaders up through Yeltsin weren’t crazy and weren’t eager to commit suicide. We don’t know if we can count on that with Putin.
To all, please keep the MAD and nuclear war talk to the spinoff thread and not this one. Last week a bunch of posts were moved out for the same reason.