Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

I’m not sure if FilkTheBlue was referring to my post.

In any case, things may have gone too far. Even if people believe the truth, they’re afraid to acknowledge it.

People are getting arrested for holding up a blank sign… they know.

One of the Anonymous Twitter accounts posted a handy map of suspicious Russian fires:

I was thinking that it might be a Pyrrhic victory for Russia, if they end the war with more territory taken from of SE Ukraine.

The iinstructive part is here:

If you can relentlessly pound the populace with unpleasantness, they will be worn down to the point where you can wrap a turd in the flag and they will eat it up.

Combine that with the baseline Russian fatalism and nihilism, and you don’t really need to try that hard.

The Abortion Thing has chased the Ukraine Thing below the fold on news sites this morning. We must not be distracted.

You’re assuming that Russia wants or even cares about “international support”. So far, the evidence leans towards the contrary.

Yes, with outside help from those who had defeated them. Had there not been support and aid for defeated Germany and Japan thousands (tens of thousands?) would have perished from shortages of vital things like food and fuel and it would have taken much, much longer to rebuild their infrastructure and economy.

Would Russia get such support? Interesting question. The US and others who helped rebuild Germany and Japan felt they had some self-interest in doing so. Who would feel that way about Russia? Certainly not the US (well, OK, we’d send food to keep people from starving, we do that even for declared enemies like North Korea but they’ll need more than food). India? They have their own problems, and I doubt they’d help without something substantial in return. China? Maybe… but with a lot of string attached.

We’re on Invasion II of that program - Russia invade Crimea in 2014, “rested” for 8 years, and is now back for more. So yes, they could do that because they’re already doing that.

South Africa does not have an authoritarian regime. It’s exactly that kind of glib narrative that prompted that article.

Also, many German and Japanese cities had been bombed into rubble. Those countries had their infrastructures destroyed with millions dead. As you point out, many more would have died without foreign aid.

In what scenario does Russia suffer such dire consequences?

It’s literally the only thing I notice.

Who doesn’t have their own problems!!

The fact is that until 9/11 and perhaps even past that, the US was pro - Pakistan: supporting the Taliban insurgency against Russia, funneling money through Pakistan. Then the US went on to support Dictators in Pakistan with money / weapons. All through this, the US did not let India buy US weapons / fighter jets etc.

All the while India bought its arms from Russia / France / UK etc, with the result that 70% of India’s overall Arsenal is of Russian origin. The Navy relied the most on Russia, followed by the air-force. Russian parts and servicing is essential for India to defend itself against the belligerent China at its border.

There’s been quite a bit of speculation that Russia may formally declare war on Ukraine on May 9th, as opposed to doing a victory lap that day. I wonder what impacts that will have on the war? Up to now, Russia has been fighting with one hand behind their back in terms of manpower. A declaration of war would allow the government to commit full reserves, active conscription, and conversion of industry to war production. But how might this affect the outcome long term?

Western officials think Putin may formally declare war on Ukraine on May 9 — Russia’s Victory Day — making his ‘special military operation’ bloodier (msn.com)

As I said…

Americans are like, ‘Oh! Something shiny!’ :frowning:

RE: The Meduza article linked above:

The other thing I noticed was several people (usually older) don’t call Putin “President;” they referred to “the tsar.”

On the whole, it seems that nation truly has a single identity; the vast majority of the population is perfectly content to follow a strong leader no matter what decisions he makes. They’re fatalistic, and will go to any mental lengths to justify terrible things done to others “to defend the Motherland.”

The article made the comparison of an abused wife continually returning to her husband, i.e. “he only beats me because he loves me, and he knows best.” They have no concept whatsoever of democratic self-rule.

Hoping for a massive groundswell of grassroots opposition in Russia to the war is a fool’s errand, I think.

There’s precedent for Russians deposing their governments after failed military operations. Granted, the circumstances were different each time but it can and in fact has happened before.

I’m just hoping he doesn’t get really stupid and declare formal war on NATO and the US that day, because that’s when the shit really starts hitting the fan.

Honestly it doesn’t even matter. The US is not helping Ukraine because its popular or because it has the publics attention. They are helping Ukraine because the next fight is against NATO and now that they know Russia would crumble instantly in that fight they are terrified of their response to that.

Or “Uncle Vova”. What the hell is that?

The slow squeeze of sanctions. It’s less dramatic than dropping bombs on their cities but the net effect will be similar. I’d say North Korea writ large but I’m pretty sure Russian can feed itself even without the Ukranian breadbasket.