Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

[Broomstick]

@Terminus_Est

@Magiver

They also canceled their flyover’s due to weather.

They said they cancelled the flyover due to weather. We all know how reliable statements coming out of Russia can be these days.

Exactly. And the weather in Moscow today looked really decent for flying. Obviously there was another reason.

@Euphonious_Polemic

he “weather” was probably a lack of parts for the planes.

Could be.

@Walken_After_Midnight

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1523676670443409410

As bad as that sounds… consider that Putin’s Russia has recently changed adoption laws to make sending those kids to “proper” Russian families easier. The plan being to erase the fact they were ever Ukrainian.

@Walken_After_Midnight

No-one in the outside world knows what happens to the people who are “filtered out” from these camps

Not entirely true - there seems to be a bit of an ad hoc underground railroad across Russia. Some people are escaping the camps and getting out of the country. I expect we’ll be hearing more about that in the future.

Apparently what’s happening so far is that their ID documents are being taken away (which makes internal travel in Russia nearly impossible), they’re being housed at set locations, not permitted to leave, and apparently being assigned work of some sort. Which is not to rule out other things occurring, too.

[DesertDog]

@Euphonious_Polemic

The “weather” was probably a lack of parts for the planes.

I was part of an ancient text-MUD back in the transition era to high speed so the folks on dial-up sometimes had serious lag issues. To keep somewhat in character, in complaining they would refer to it as “weather.” Boy, the weather is awful this morning.

[Velocity]

So, technical question: When the United States gives 90 howitzers to Ukraine, where are they from? Are they being taken out of some active Army unit’s inventory, or does America just have a few hundred spares lying around in a warehouse at all times?

[silenus]

@Velocity

Are they being taken out of some active Army unit’s inventory, or does America just have a few hundred spares lying around in a warehouse at all times?

Yes. My guess is that we are sending materiel that was replaced by the latest models and is in storage at various bases around the planet.

[Velocity]

But the stuff we’re sending Ukraine is the latest. M777 howitzers, for instance, are the latest - they are the most modern version, not something old and replaced-already.

[silenus]

Then some units are going to have their upgrades delayed for a bit. No idea how they decide which units. If I were in charge I would give the Ukrainians stuff that was already in-theater. That will piss off 41st FAB, but what are they gonna do?

[duality72]

Take notes from the Ukrainians on how the new systems perform in an actual war.

[bordelond]

@duality72

Take notes from the Ukrainians on how the new systems perform in an actual war .

Had this same thought – there may be very new materiel that the U.S. military is interested in trying out in theater.

[filmstar-en]

I am sure there is no finer test of what military hardware works well and what does not.

Nato countries seem to have gone from clearing out old inventory to - Here! Try this!

Equipment that is battle tested against the Russian military will surely command a premium in future arms sales.

[Mr.Duality]

Can’t recall where I first saw it, but here’s an apt term for the fires in Russia:

Special Combustion Operations

[wolfpup]

@Terminus_Est

@Magiver

They also canceled their flyover’s due to weather.

They said they cancelled the flyover due to weather. We all know how reliable statements coming out of Russia can be these days.

This is what the weather was like in Moscow during the parade – a partial cloud cover. Sure doesn’t look like bad weather to me.

Maybe the airbase experienced one of those mysterious fires that are popping up all over. Or maybe too many planes were missing engines or instrumentation – the kinds of things that have black market value.

[Magiver]

They seriously might have been afraid of a stinger missile taking down their doomsday plane en-route to the fly-over. It was supposed to be the main attraction.

[wolfpup]

From what I read, the main attraction (or at least, one of the high points of the planned flyover) was to have been 77 fighter jets (symbolizing the 77th anniversary of V-E day), flying in a “Z” formation.

[Magiver]

I don’t think they’ve ever included a doomsday plane in their celebration. It was supposed to be another saber rattle referencing nuclear war. Apparently they ran out of victory Viagra.

He looked like a little old man in a retirement home with the blanket on his legs.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

CNN: ‘Putin and his circle are doomed.’ Russian journalists post articles critical of invasion on pro-Kremlin site

Each article on [the pro-Kremlin website] started with the same urgent plea under the headline.

"Disclaimer: This material is not approved by the state, therefore the presidential administration will delete it… In other words: TAKE A SCREENSHOT URGENTLY before it’s deleted.”

[Morgyn]

I heard that the Wayback Machine got all of it.

[Northern_Piper]

Interesting article from the NYTimes, reprinted in an Indian paper, on Russia’s assumption that they’d be welcomed by Ukrainians:

Russia’s Grave Miscalculation: Ukrainians Would Collaborate

[Gyrate]

@Northern_Piper

Interesting article from the NYTimes, reprinted in an Indian paper, on Russia’s assumption that they’d be welcomed by Ukrainians:

Hey, it worked for the US in Iraq!

/s

[aceplace57]

You consider Putin’s speech a step towards De-escalation? It’s good news he didn’t declare all out war in Ukraine . No state conscription. This speech could have been very inflammatory towards NATO. Putin’s Victory Day Speech Forgoes an Opportunity to Escalate Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine | Institute for the Study of War

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin used his May 9 speech to praise ongoing Russian efforts in Ukraine and reinforce existing Kremlin framing rather than announcing a change. He did not announce an escalation or declare victory in the Russian war in Ukraine.
• Putin likely calculated that he could not ask the Russian population for a greater commitment to the war effort and implicitly reassured the Russian people that he would not ask for a greater societal commitment in his speech.
• Putin may be recognizing the growing risks he faces at home and in Ukraine and may be adjusting his objectives, and his desired end state in Ukraine, accordingly.
• The Kremlin has already scaled down its objectives in Ukraine (from its initial objective of capturing Kyiv and full regime change) and will likely do so again—or be forced to do so by Ukrainian battlefield successes.
• Regardless of any change—or lack thereof—in the Kremlin’s objectives, Putin’s speech indicates that the Kremlin has likely decided to maintain its current level of resourcing in the war.
• The Kremlin attempted to demonstrate the alleged popularity of its occupation of eastern Ukraine through forced Victory Day celebrations in occupied Ukrainian territories.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Here’s a screenshot of the articles posted on the pro-Kremlin website (translated into English):