Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Yeah, get 'em all real close together. Try out the new howitzers.

Sad.

Could have happened. Until the late thirties Carlsberg used a swastika on their beer.

And they still have 4 elephants statues at the front door, with swastika on them.

There’s also an elephant and a swastika on the cover of the 1921 edition of The Jungle Book.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1527719318364073986

One hitherto little-reported aspect of the Siege of Mariupol is that Ukraine appears to have been supplying the defenders by helicopter.

Evidence for this included Western-supplied military equipment getting through to the defending troops. There were also, a few weeks ago, photos of a crashed Ukrainian helicopter that the Russians claimed to have shot down outside Mariupol. Amidst the wreckage were the bodies of bandaged soldiers.

The missions appear to have had a high mortality rate.

Ukraine has some troops guarding the Belarusian border. It sounds like their primarily reservists, very young and older men. I hope their properly supplied with anti-tank weapons. I think any invasion from Belarus will include armored troops.

As an armchair general, NATO/Poland should announce/schedule a bunch of war games on the Belarusian border. You know, just games, nothing to see here.

It is my understanding that, rather like the US, young urbanites are less than enthusiastic about Putin’s war while older, rural types, particularly those who yearn for the good ol’ Soviet days, are avidly for it.

The young use the internet more and know how to use VPNs to bypass state media.

The number of young Russians is decreasing every day, though.

I’m seeing conflicting images. one is video at an indoor arena and one shows a crowd at an outdoor concert at St. Petersburg.

It seems to me that in the last week or so, both sides have lost the initiative. It seems we have reached the dreaded state of equilibrium. Maneuver has petered out.

Now we will see who can bring up more strength.

Russia’s air force is more active in Ukraine. I remember we didn’t hear much about air strikes at the beginning of the war.

Russia’s bottomless supply of rockets is surprising. I’m wondering if another country is resuppling them?

Ukraine forces are taking a beating.
Guardian blog

I’m sure it’s not bottomless, but regardless Russia does happen to have one of the largest arms industries on earth. Churning out advanced fighter jets might be a bit more complicated now with the pressure of sanctions (and is never quick, regardless), but unguided munitions will be the last thing they run out of.

I was thinking, at the start of all this, something similar, only with Ukraine’s military and NATO, in Ukraine near the Russian border with a series of big honking joint exercises.

This is not about doing fun stuff to tick off the Russians. This is about the very delicate task of beating the Russians without causing them to lash out.

When did I suggest that as “fun stuff to tick off the Russians”? And that is a very serious question btw; I want to know, from you, when I suggested that.

You were serious? Sorry about that. The reason why we ought not to do such a thing is that result in the End Of The World As We Know It. That would be a Bad Thing.

Sincere thanks for your response btw, and I was serious, but not as something to do now, but as something that should have been done in the post-2014, Crimean annexation years, as a preventative thing.

We already had NATO troops there in a training capacity, but what if (as an enhanced training activity) we had thousands of NATO personnel, representing all operational environments, exercising with their Ukrainian counterparts?

That would only be offensive to Russia if they decided to be offended, but I think that it would have been a significant deterrent to Russia by greatly raising the stakes. Again, not now but in the years prior to the invasion.