Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Yeah I think he means “Cavalry” not “infantry” (Tanks and armored vehicles being considered Cavalry)

Yes Cavalry . I had a brain fart yesterday.

Severodonetsk becomes a huge mass grave for Russian army and Kadyrovites (yahoo.com)

Ukrainian troops had prepared for the siege of Severodonetsk for a very long time, and roughly understood in which directions the attackers would go, they prepared — maybe they laid mines, maybe they set up ambushes.

The attackers were allowed into the city, and then this trap was snapped shut – and there they were all killed, and annihilated.

At first I didn’t really believe in this story, I thought it sounded too good to be true. However, I read [former FSB colonel, terrorist] Igor Girkin (Strelkov), and he says that the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Severodonetsk is indeed successful and developing. He said, “I don’t want to talk about the scale of the problems.” Obviously, the scale is quite serious.

Now the Russians are retreating from Severodonetsk in a panic.

Let’s hope it’s all true.

A YouTube vid from Military Summary channel was linked a couple days ago that claims the large chemical plant is mined.

Supposedly the Russians are very concerned that toxic fumes could escape. Killing anyone downwind.

That would be another reason for the Russians to pull back.

Interesting because the day after that article was published the Russians were claiming they had the Ukrainians feeling in Severodonetsk (I even posted about it in this thread). It must be a very complicated situation there because all the analysts I’ve listened to want to wait to hear more before making any claims and will not commit either way.

It does sound like maybe the Ukrainians retreated (possibly as a lure) and then counter attacked.

The mayor of Severodonetsk a few hours ago claimed that the city is in Ukrainian hands and they had strengthened their positions. But I still keep hearing conflicting reports - some say the Russians have been routed, but others (not just Russians) say that the Ukrainians are in a difficult situation and at risk of losing the city.

Edit: Forbes have just published a good article about Severodonetsk today:

This city is right at the centre of this war right now.

A lot of people will sleep better with this monster dead.
Site: https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/mercenary-vladimir-andonov-killed-by-ukrainian-sniper-with-two-russian-generals-dead-in-separate-attack-reports-claim/news-story/5cdfa678c1b7df5ccedbb49d9fc1552f

I’ve heard of assassins being executed, but The Executioner being assassinated…?

Mortuis nihil nisi bonum.

‘Andonov is dead.’

‘Good.’

Damn, I am getting more and more impressed with the Ukrainians every day!

Andonov was a leader of the Irony Brigade Wagner Group – the perfect name for a bunch of guys you want for to eradicate “Nazis”.

Two more Russian generals reportedly killed in one day this past weekend.

Ukraine war: Putin ‘loses two of his most senior commanders in one day’ | Daily Mail Online

Looks like Russia IS making gains in Severodonestk:

Russia is very close to capturing all of Donbas which might mean we see from Putin a George W Bush moment of “mission accomplished” (where it very much isn’t and years of bloody confilct still lie ahead).

I don’t think the city of Sievierodonetsk is of great strategic military value in that it does not really go anywhere. If the Russian invaders were to capture the city, then they immediately hit the Siverskyi Donets river, with the city of Lysychansk on the opposite bank on higher ground. So the aim of Ukrainian forces in Sievierodonetsk seems to be to whittle down Russian invading forces in urban warfare, rather than to hold the city at all costs.

The Russian invaders are not close at all to capturing the whole of the Donbas. In the map below, the area outlined in blue is the Donbas. The area with the red outline is what the Russians controlled before the February invasion, with red shading showing currently occupied territory. Furthermore, the portion of the Donbas under Ukrainian control is denser in urban settlements than most of the rest of the Donbas, which means it will be harder to try and capture.

This is an interesting story. The author makes the observation that Ukraine is taking advantage of Russia’s preoccupation with Severodonetsk to tie up Russian troops there, while Ukraine establishes a foothold to go after Kherson.

I think Ukraine has two advantages in this conflict. The first is the Ukrainian commitment, their will to fight. The second is their strategic ability. They seem to have Russia thoroughly outclassed in both areas.

They are jointly under attack - the fight is being short-handed in the media as for Severodonestk, but it is actually for both. Lysychansk is apparently getting pounded hard. The strategic position is they are the last major population centers in the Luhansk oblast (not the Donbas as a whole) and gives the Russians considerable control along the length of the Siverskyi Donets. Which would then shift to becoming a geographic impediment to any Ukrainian counter-attack, just as up until now it has been for the Russians.

From the NASA fire map, action seems to be concentrated in Sievierodonetsk:

I would think Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk would be the absolute last place along the entire front line in Ukraine that Ukrainian forces would be thinking of launching a counteroffensive from. There are huge areas of Ukraine that will need to be liberated first before contemplating such a move.

It does, but my understanding is Lysychansk has been hammered with artillery and there has also been some street-fighting there (granted, Fog of War and all that). I don’t expect the Russians to stop until they’ve overwhelmed both. It wouldn’t make much tactical sense to not.

Quite probably. But if Putin is looking for a settlement where he ‘keeps’ the Donbas (either directly or via puppet republics), which seems like it might be the new goal, eliminating the last major salient in Luhansk and ‘straightening’ up his lines makes some sense.

Do you have a cite for the street-fighting? I would be very surprised if there were any Russian forces in Lysychansk. I’m not sure how they would have gotten there.

Sievierodonetsk is of symbolic importance to the Russians, which is why they are focusing most of their energy into capturing it, and why the Ukrainians will aim to make it costly and painful for them to do so, even if the city is not strategically important in pure military terms.

Not readily at hand - I hop grasshopper-like from source to source these days. Could have been a general account of fighting in the twin towns where Lysychansk and street-fighting were mentioned in the same breath, but the fighting in question was all occurring in Sievierodonetsk.

Interior lines of communication help, too.

:unamused: Direct threats to you and your family. That would be demoralizing.

I guess collaborators are giving the Russians name of soldiers?

ISW: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8 | Institute for the Study of War