Even if they could, they’d have almost no ammo to use for it. Russia can’t manufacture its own GMLRS or GLSDB munitions.
While this is certainly true in operational terms, strategically, it may not be in Ukraine’s interests to allow the conflict to quiet down, settling into the current battle lines for any extended period of time. The prevailing wisdom is that support in the West will eventually diminish for prolonging the conflict so long as it seems the outcome on the ground is more or less decided or unchanged. To this end, Ukraine NEEDS (in the next few months) to strike some decisive offensive blows while western support is still running fairly high and offensive weapons are still pouring in.
It’s very likely Russians will dig in like ticks on a hound, consolidate, and fight a purely defensive battle once they’ve gained the territory they’re willing to settle for. Defense is easier than offense. Ukraine will not only have to replace their recent losses, but will also need many thousands of additional new soldiers, as well as a good deal more offensive weapons capacity than they currently possess.
One big question is whether Russian supplies and morale will be depleted sufficiently at that point to allow Ukr to force the Russians into some kind of defensive collapse. The domestic Russians arms industry is fairly robust, and while Russia may not be able to easily replace much of the precision weapons and equipment they’ve already lost and expended, they can still continue to produce lots of shells and ‘dumb’ weapons to keep their forces adequately supplied to maintain a defensive posture for the foreseeable future.
The other big question depends largely on NATO/the west: what outcome to this war do WE want to see happen? Thus far, we’ve provided adequate weapons to allow Ukraine to just barely hold on, do we want to see the conflict end with Russia in possession of the eastern breakaway provinces and the land bridge to Crimea? Or do we want to see Ukrainian boundaries restored to pre-2014 positions? If the latter is the case, then we need to be sending a lot more offensive weapons than what we’ve sent thus far.
Modern warfare weapons - drone-jamming rifles:
The Russian fascist invaders’ drone-jamming rifle, called the “Stupor”:
I agree that Ukraine needs some kind of victory. Some results need to come from that 850 million military aid package. Liberating Kharkiv is noteworthy, but who knows how long that’ll last.
I know its not for lack of trying or sacrifice. The Russians are like bulldozers. Fucking relentless. They are taking heavy losses but are keeping the numbers out of the news. Their military units should be severely degraded.
Ukraine has to keep morale high and retain support. The economies are tightening and gas increasing. NATO may struggle keeping united support for the war.
Maybe. I think it has been a long time since NATO has had such support.
I don’t recall seeing anyone flying Kuwaiti flags in Canada during Gulf War I.
Ukrainian flags are everywhere.
To the extent that’s a measure of popular support…
Wow, I’m pleasantly surprised. Turkey stepped up big time. There is some confusion over the registry of the ship.
I’m not sure how you prove the origin of grain. Russia grows it too.
Site: Turkey seizes Russian ship carrying ‘stolen’ Ukrainian grain | Ukraine | The Guardian
The narrator mentions the drone landing and getting captured when control is lost. Some civilian drones have a ‘return home’ feature when that happens, using GPS to come back and land at its take-off point, assuming control is not reestablished when it gets closer.
I can see that not being a desirable feature on a military drone, though.
That is interesting. If Turkey uses the illegality of the occupation to simply claim everything leaving Russian territory in the Black Sea, in perpetuity, that really drives down the value of claiming the land. And Turkey is basically immune to Russian threats, since Russia is already strapped for military might and Turkey is part of NATO. I expect that Russia also still has a lot of people in Syria, and Turkey is well situated to muck with them.
There are three basic things that (potentially) come with the conquest of Ukraine:
- Farmland
- More workers
- Port access
If you can’t make it past Eastern Ukraine then you don’t get the first. If Turkey takes everything leaving Crimea and Eastern Ukraine then you lose the last. I’m not sure that there’s so much value to the middle one, really.
Putin must be making incredible demands on the military. They know Ukraine will have better artillery in a few weeks.
CNN live blog
You forgot the fourth: untapped oil and gas reserves in the eastern part of Ukraine.
Zelensky says Western artillery that Ukraine has received “started working very powerfully”
Its accuracy is exactly as needed. Our defenders inflict very noticeable strikes on depots and other spots that are important for the logistics of the occupiers. And this significantly reduces the offensive potential of the Russian army. The losses of the occupiers will only increase every week, as will the difficulty of supplying them.
Zelenskyy, in his nightly address
The Ukrainian flag is flying again on Snake Island:
Video demonstrating the accuracy of drone-dropped munitions:
So, a question: Could U.S. intel work closely enough with Ukrainian artillery (such as HIMARS) that it functions as a real-time artillery spotter? i.e., message Ukrainian high command or even the Ukrainian arty directly, “American satellites spot a Russian howitzer battery at ------coordinates, you ought to open fire on them within minutes if you can.”
I understand a lot of the artillery war is all about spotting and recon; ie, drones.
Just. Wow. I thought they where attacking the crew when they got out of the tank to rest.
As one of the comments said, probably clearing out an abandoned tank.
Quite possibly, as it looks like the bomb was dropped at a much lower height than usual.
So now Putin is practically begging for Ukraine to enter talks.
AP - Putin to Ukraine: Russia has barely started its action
- With Russia’s military action in Ukraine in its fifth month, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday warned Kyiv that it should quickly accept Moscow’s terms or brace for the worst, adding ominously that Russia has barely started its action.
[Christo Grozev, Bellingcat:]