Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Imagine what a bunch of poorly trained troops could do using their advanced weaponry.

Newsweek

  • Russia Accidentally Shoots Down Their Own $36M Su-34 Bomber, Ukraine Claims

A $36 million Russian Su-34 bomber was reportedly shot down by Russia’s own forces over Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, Ukrainian media outlets claimed on Monday.

Of course that’s a Ukrainian claim that can’t be verified but they have a video that should be verifiable against previous stock footage.

I’m not sure that is entirely a training issue - might just be a technology problem (could also be both). Russian air defense systems seem to be pretty good, they probably poured more resources into them than any other nation during the Cold War. But it’s been known since at least the war in Georgia that have a serious flaw with IFF, particularly when fighting an opponent equipped with a lot of the same aircraft designs. Ukrainian Su-27 or Russian Su-34? They are based on the same air frame and Russian operators/systems may have some difficulty distinguishing air forces.

I’m sure the new recruits will fit in nicely.

Did they shoot down another one after I posted about it?

To be fair, there has to be similar cases on the Ukrainian side. Warm bodies are at a premium in this war.

Site: ‘They hunt us like stray cats’: pro-Russia separatists step up forced conscription as losses mount | Ukraine | The Guardian

I’ve seen speculation the Russian Su-34 wandered outside its corridor.

Air Defense is told a mission will be flying from 22:00-23:30 at 30,000 - 32000 ft. Anything in that corridor is friendly.

Just speculation.

IFF may have been turned off. There’s several things thay coulx go wrong.

Russian air defense operators don’t have a great history of target discipline.

Four additional HIMARS to Ukraine. New total will be 16 in country. The figures are tied to training crews, not availability of weapon systems or GMLRS rounds.
Recent announcement from Sec Def Austin.

July 20: Update about that Antonivsky bridge just beside Kherson. It was hit a 2nd day in a row with HIMARS . At least 10 or maybe 12 missiles have hit the bridge so far, with many holes of various sizes. It is now closed to traffic.

I’d like to see satellite photos of the bridge. There probably are holes in the bridge deck. That would stop traffic.

It would take a extremely accurate shot to hit a concrete bridge support.

A laser guided missile would do it. If someone in the river pointed the laser. Probably not a survivable mission.

Battle Of Kherson - Ukrainian GMLRS Rockets Hit Antonovsky Bridge In Kherson - 19th JULY 2022 11:30 - YouTube
Not a satellite photo, but this video was taken yesterday. I understand the bridge has been attacked again today. HIMARS systems are evidently highly accurate.

The rockets are punching holes in the deck.

I guess the bridge such a critical logistical target that it’s worth using HIMARS.

The bridge should have been blown up in February. Because it wasn’t the Russians were able to take possession of Kherson.

Kherson, is located on the north side of the Dnipro River. Losing this bridge will complicate Russian efforts to resupply the troops around the city. You may also recall a couple days ago seeing a major ammo depot exploding in this vicinity, so the re-supply is likely badly needed right now.

https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/land/mlrs-g.htm

During development of the guided M30 rocket, they integrated…

(“CEP” means “Circular Error Probable”, a measure of ballistic accuracy. Circular error probable - Wikipedia)

So, not bad precision for an super long range artillery weapon.

There are only two roads crossing the Dneiper river that connect the Russian fascist-occupied areas north of the river to the south.

Antonivka Road Bridge:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ac/01_09_2006_08_23_Kherson.JPG/440px-01_09_2006_08_23_Kherson.JPG

Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant Dam:

Nice occupied territory you have there. It would be a shame if it were cut off, so there’s no way in or out…

Like the invasion in general, I suspect that’s a factor they hadn’t given sufficient weight in the planning.

There is a slightly longer cut of the same video (1:09) on that page that shows cars driving on the bridge. Not sure I’d like to drive anything heavy across the bridge.

A while back I saw a post showing the use of fake civilians in Russian-occupied Donbas. The same people would appear in different unrelated photos or videos pretending to be different people.

Here are some more examples involving Putin:

General Milley refutes claims by the Russians that they have destroyed any HIMARS:

Holy crap. I can’t believe those people are driving across that bridge. And yeah, driving any sort of military equipment over it would be a real sphincter-tightener.

On another bridge-related note … how low are those guardrails?! Even without the holes punched in the decking, the bridge doesn’t seem safe.