Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
,
6765

Another important aspect is that the F-16 can perform SEAD* and be an effective air-to-air fighter. So, unlike the A-10, it can potentially suppress air defenses, perform escort for ground attacks, and attack ground targets. Plus, it’s cheap-ish, and still in production. I think supplying them to Ukraine is kind of a no-brainer provided the logistics and training can be figured out.

I’ve said Putin turned into the best F-35 salesman that has been wrought in the last few months. He’s actually a very good F-16 salesman, as well.

Yeah, it doesn’t seem like either side’s SU-25s have fared really well in this conflict.

*The Israelis have supposedly done this against the S300 with their F-16s. It may have been done with an Israeli made jamming pod, but the details are hard to come by.

6766

Social, Emotional, and Academic Development? Is that what they’re calling it now?

6767

Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses

6768

Heheh, yeah, that’s why we need likes on this board.

That said, you could call removing Russia’s air defenses Social, Emotional and Academic Development. Most anything that removes them from Ukraine could be described that way.

6769

He’s a pretty good NATO salesman too. He also might be able sell used tanks as target drones.

6770

He’s moved Taiwan towards independence, in direct opposite to what his Chinese allies want.

6771

“So I was just strolling down to the flight line one morning, and BAM! There they were, Frogfoots as far as the eye could see…”

6772

There has been quite a bit of good news in-favor of Ukraine recently. However, I have to ask: Can Russia still win this? I’m worried that if the Russian public thinks a victory is possible, Putin might go full total war and actually start drafting in-mass. What would it mean for the world if Russia is able to secure the “independence” of Donbas?

6773

Frogfeet?

6774

Frogfeetses, since there’s more than four of them. Foot, feet, feets, feetses.

6775

Of course. For varying definitions of “win.” They just have to grind out bloody a stalemate to the point where Ukraine compromises at some level out of sheer exhaustion and Putin can walk away satisfied. Russia still has several significant structural advantages over Ukraine. If Putin is willing to dig in like a tick, Ukraine is going to have a difficult time shifting him ( not impossible, just difficult) unless there is a coup and/or the Russian will/economic capacity to fight completely collapses. And Putin controls the lever of propaganda, has defanged his enemies and he still has petroleum money as a backstop. Not to mention it is Ukraine, not Russia, that is getting fought over and on.

Nothing is guaranteed, but barring a sudden defenestration or mysterious heart ailment of the imperious leader, this might go on for awhile. It is still plausible Ukraine’s endurance will collapse before Russia’s.

6776

I can’t envision any war where you come out in the toilet and can be counted a winner. Russia lost when they were dropped from the world economy.

In theory, though, they certainly could always drop nukes on Ukraine and simply move in to overtake the sizzling flat wasteland that remains. But I think that if there was a goal to the war, it’s to teach the Ukrainians that they need to do what they’re told to do, by Russia, and that insubordination will not be tolerated. For that, you need them to mostly stay alive, to repent and to serve you later. That limits how completely destructive Russia is likely to be.

That said, Russia has already lost and they’re at the point where there’s probably not much that the world can still do to them. Once they do claim victory over some particular territory, they might as well nuke Kyiv or drown it in sarin gas, or whatever, just as a final gut punch, before calling it a day. What can the West do to them, still?

Likewise, if Russia’s position falls back too quickly, and Putin looks like he’s not even going to have won the territorial conquest part of the endeavor, he might throw the nukes as a measure to save face.

The long term strategy for peace is to keep the war going, without either side being confident of a win nor a conclusion - it just needs to keep looking endless. And Russia needs to have an out where they can regain some of their economic connections to the rest of the world and still have some land gains. If they are heading for the door and they’re still looking at complete isolation, there’s nothing to lose by being completely immoral on the out.

That said, Putin has an increasing habit of only ever taking a helping hand to gain the opportunity that he can bite it and show how stupid he considers all the care bears, legalists, and humanists of the world to be.

It’s unlikely that there’s any happy ending in any of this, with Putin leading Russia, because of his personality. The Duma really should remove him - for their own sake, and the sake of the people of Russia.

It’s okay to accept that you were wrong, and to start doing the right thing. Maintaining face isn’t worth depriving your children of their futures in a land of peace and prosperity.

6777

Thank you. I am informed.

6778

I wonder how many people in the Russian government are walking a nervous tightrope, being committed enough to glorious leader to avoid being purged but not so much that they would be carried down along with him if he fell. They’re all congratulating his genius now. But they also have their, “It was all Putins doing! I advised against it!” speeches rehearsed.

6779

The effects have not really hurt the Russian economy yet. These things take a while. Sadly it works both ways and many economies will suffer in the coming months.

6780

Ultimately, Russia has enough resources and people within their own country, that even being entirely isolated from the world economy won’t spell complete disaster for them. The average quality of life will drop, but not to mass starvation levels. And the people like Putin will still live lives of immense wealth, even as those around them suffer.

This is why I’m not too worried about a spoiler nuclear attack, even if Putin is forced by circumstances to withdraw form Ukraine. Relatively Rich in Russia is still far better than having everything nuked to shit, which is what Putin would be risking nuking Ukraine.

6781

I have a strong suspicion the Slovakia MiG-29’s will soon find a new home. :wink:

The Guardian

6782

From what I’ve heard, the Saab holds up well in simulated combat with F-15s, F-16s, and Typhoons.

6783

I hope this time the Mig-29’s are quietly donated without any announcement.

The last attempt with Poland got very screwed up.

6784

Amen.
Although when it comes to transferring military hardware, we should acknowledge there are competing interests at play. On the one hand, there’s the obvious benefits of maintaining operational security on a strategic level when providing military assistance. Surprise has its advantages, while providing a laundry list in public lets an enemy know with precision what is or isn’t being provided, and oftentimes gives a good idea on the timeline as well. On the other hand, naming specific items does give the political advantage of publicly proclaiming support in very definite terms. This matters especially for democracies.

But the way the whole MiG 29 thing with Poland was publicly fumbled amongst all the public debate…yeah, that was a cluster from start to finish no matter how you cut it.