Do the Russians actually believe they can come out ahead in a nuclear exchange? Maybe it’s because I’m a child of the 80s, but I’ve always been told that as soon as the nukes start flying, everyone loses, equally. There’s a reason Israel calls using nuclear weapons the “Samson Option” - Samson, if your remember, did not survive tearing the temple down on his enemies.
It might be off-topic, but I pity the soldiers guarding sites where partisans seem to have struck. Either they are suspected of complicity or incompetence. Either way just folks doing their jobs I’d imagine.
I’m starting to think that with 40 years of technological progress, maybe it’s time to revisit Reagan’s Star Wars defense grid dream. It sure would be nice to be able to take all nukes off the table.
Sort of the Israeli Iron Dome writ large.
To your first sentence: No. Not at all.
As for your second sentence: No. They are very different events.
“Causing a nuclear power accident” would be more in line with detonating a dirty bomb, which would likely have nowhere near the destructive force of even a small nuclear weapon.
A dirty bomb is not a nuclear bomb. A nuclear bomb creates an explosion that is millions of times more powerful than a dirty bomb. The cloud of radiation from a nuclear bomb could spread thousands of square miles, whereas a dirty bomb’s radiation could be dispersed within a few blocks or miles of the explosion.
(From the Nuclear Regulatory Commission)
It’s not possible. Even with a perfect satellite defense (and we wouldn’t have that) it wouldn’t be possible. There’s submarine launched nukes that could hit coastal cities. Even barring that there’s the old fashioned method of driving them in and them setting them off rather than having to launch them with a missile. I’m sure there’s other also delivery methods that I’m missing.
Sneaking in across the border.
Launched by artillery or a modified tank.
Disassembled then reassembled at the target.
Who knows what else, but the Russians would surely get creative in that scenario.
ETA. If the mechanisms for a nuclear winter are as I understand them, and if Russia only cares about dragging the world down to hell with them, they can probably succeed by nuking themselves, especially all that drying out taiga in Siberia.
That has the benefit of making their enemies suffer while they get a quick death for themselves.
Wouldn’t those emergency diesel generators run on the same fuel used by Russian trucks and armor? I mean—I’m sure the Russkies are running low on supplies and all but no matter who you are, you gotta lend a spot of diesel to help avoid a nuclear meltdown, right? That’s just good manners, ISTM.
That was my thought - nuclear extortion. “Oh, the plant will melt down if you don’t send us 50,000 gallons of fuel by this afternoon!”
“Where did the 50,000 gallons we sent yesterday go?”
“…we lost it?”
Interesting take on recent events. There was another drone strike against Navy hq in Sevastopol. No damage but it will be unsettling for the Russians far from the war.
I see the need to keep up optimism and interest in the war. It’s a bit frustrating that my major source of war news is ***ISW, The Guardian and BBC. US news rarely breaks any War stories before the British news.
***ISW seems to be US staffed research.
Cite The Guardian view on war in Ukraine: fighting on multiple fronts | Editorial | The Guardian
Washington Post is running a couple of articles on the Russain intelligence failure in their planning for Ukraine. Short version: they assumed that the Ukrainian government would easily collapse and Russians would be welcomed as heroes. Any information to the contrary was either ignored or not included in intelligence sent to the Kremlin, because it was known that the Kremlin didn’t want to hear it.
Here’s the short article:
Since it may be paywalled, here’s the 5 takeaways it lists:
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A clandestine branch of Russia’s security service was deeply involved in the Kremlin’s failed war plan, assuring officials in Moscow that Ukraine’s government would fall quickly and deploying operatives to install a puppet regime.
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FSB officers were so confident they would seize the levers of power in Kyiv that they spent the final days before the war arranging accommodations in the capital.
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The FSB’s Ukraine department underwent a major expansion in the period leading up to the invasion, according to Ukrainian and Western security officials.
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The FSB worked closely with prominent collaborators and lined up at least two pro-Russian governments-in-waiting.
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Despite repeated failures, FSB leaders remain in their positions and the agency has regrouped, putting officers on three-month rotations in regions occupied by Russian forces.
And a link to a much longer, more detailed article, with 8 parts:
And finally, an article from back in April, which argues that the fault lies right at the top, with Putin’s own miscalculations about Ukraine:
one or two (somewhat relevant?) thoughts …
(don’t know/endorse this person - but he is having a lot of good points in a very condensed statement)
2.) way more frightening:
If things get really sour for the russians in Kherson … does anybody doubt they’d blow up this huge dam upstream and possibly drown the town and possibly tens or hundrets of 1000s of people … just “because”
and there will be very little the ukr. could do to prevent this
British forces blew 3 dams that provided power and water to the Ruhr industrial region of Germany. There’s a movie The Dam Busters about the mission.
If the shit hits the fan they won’t have a choice.
political post hidden, please don’t reply
Hi guys, just wondering is this a pro-US, anti-Russian thread? I couldn’t read all 7000 posts but from the dozen or so that I did skim through, it sounds like it.
I don’t dislike anyone so please don’t take it personal or to heart. I’m actually pro Russia on this one and hope for world peace but it doesn’t help when NATO and US forces are expanding their powers. There is a great youtube video that explains how the West started this from a long time ago…a lecture from 7 years ago: Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer - YouTube
stay safe everyone and don’t hate the messenger. I love America too, just not their foreign policy.
So you don’t think this could be a pro-Ukraine thread?
As was pointed out earlier in the thread, this is for news about the the war.
There’s a thread in The BBQ Pit specifically for defending Russia.
In addition to what others have mentioned, that lecture has to do with the Crimea invasion of 2014, not the current conflict.
These are mutually incompatible positions. Please take further discussion to the Pit thread linked above.
where have I heard this before? …
Seit 5 Uhr 45 wird jetzt zurückgeschossen!
… when nazi germany was attacked by poland … of course they had to defend themselves - one would understand that russia today is in a similar position. /s
if it weren’t for the 1000s of ukr. deaths and general destruction, the whole thing surely had its interesting, ironic even comic moments, when the russians get there ass kicked quite consistently by ukr. - moscva, krim, … (and claiming it on their incompetence - to make it look “better”)
the collapse of the soviet union came with the forced withdrawal from their afghanistan debacle - and all that went with it… so I am really interested in seeing a 2030 map of what today is russia 
It is quite pro Ukraine. Which is fine. But often any facts that may favor Russian situation on the battlefield are attacked as pro Russian.
I find it just amusing to read this thread.
The BBQ pit thread is even more a waste of time. Much flaming of course. It is BBQ.
Occasionally The New Atlas has Ukraine war updates and explanations. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVkSF37pPXkZbElFjBwUsEA