I think, either way, it’s a hypothetical that’s well outside the scope of this thread. If someone wants to start the discussion in Politics “what happens in Ukraine if Zelenskyy gets captured on the first night,” I will take the position that Ukraine’s effectiveness in responding is radically reduced, because Zelenskyy has proven himself stunningly capable as a figurehead and administrative coordinator for a nation at war, and this kind of symbolic leadership would be sorely missed. But again, this would be a different thread, I think.
China social media has turned against the Russians.
It was indeed surprising to me that they didn’t achieve air superiority, but to what margin I wasn’t able to guess since it was attacking a large fairly modernized country which hasn’t happened in quite awhile.
What was more surprising, though, was the other geographic impediment that slowed the Russians - the rasputitsa. If anyone should be aware of that it’s the Russians, but sticking to the paved roads hurt them almost as much as going through a dense city.
So I think I can explain this. I follow a number of generals and military analysts, and this is basically what they say:
The original plan was to make a high speed ‘blitzkrieg’ style armored thrust to Kiev. Now, armor without infantry support is incredibly vulnerable, especially in cities and towns. But if they had left Russia with an infantry it would have taken so long to get to Kiev that Ukrainians would have had time to prepare. Putin wanted ‘shock and awe’, because he thought Zelensky was a pushover who would run at the first sight of the mighty Russian forces.
So the plan was for airborne troops to take Hostomel Airport and the town of Hostomel outside of Kiev and then reinforce and wait for the armor. When the armored column got to Hostomel, it would be joined by the infantry and a combined arms assault on Kiev would rout the Ukrainians and send Zelensky running.
There was a secondary backup plan that involved Chechen special forces driving right into Kiev from Hostomel in an attempt to assassinate Zelensky.
That was the plan.
What actually happened is that the Ukrainians put up a bigger fight at Hostomel than expected, repelling the first attack. Russians then took it back, but fighting still went on around the town. The Chechens got hammered, and their general killed. The lead armored element of tanks and BMPs that showed up were destroyed, and a Ukrainian sniper killed a Major General who was commanding the combined arms army in the area. Eventually, Hostomel was won by the Ukrainians and the Russians buggered off, having sustained major casualties.
In the meantime, the armored column was frozen in olace, because it no longer had infantry support waiting and because the path to Kiev was no longer open. While they sat there, UAVs or Anti Tank Guided Missiles took out the lead vehicles on the road, trapping them. Then eventually the trapped vehicles were slowly picked off as sitting ducks by the ATGMs, because that’s what happens when you don’t have infantry to clear the area around the armor.
The original plan probably looked pretty good on paper. But the Ukrainians were tipped off by someone in the FSB, apparently, so they were prepared for the Russians at Hostomel, and in particular were told about the assassination plot, so they intercepted the Chechens and beat them up badly.
And that ended the first phase of the war and Putin’s hope for a short, relatively bloodless and cheap war.
While the US and UK have contributed big numbers, here’s a look with contributions as a percentage of GDP. The Baltic threesome and Poland led the way. Fond Not fond memories of Soviet occupation.
The Baltic states not unreasonably think they may be next if Russia wins in Ukraine.
(Kind of a pointless question in the scheme of things, but my curiosity is gnawing at me: why isn’t that chart sorted from most to least. I mean, it mostly is, but it isn’t.)
European cars are based on diesel fuel which burns just fine in space heaters. They could turn the thermostat down 1 or 2 degrees and let the space heaters reduce the amount of natural gas being used to maintain it.
LNG will be supplemented from North America and Mediterranean sources via sea ports and Spanish pipelines. It’s just a matter of adding up the needed resources.
Following up on Sam’s military summary, here’s an NYT article on the failure of Russian intelligence, which contributed to the failure to take Kyiv in a lightning strike:
(I’ve posted it before, but it’s several hundred posts back by now, so re-posting.)
It’s not just about ‘freezing’ - it’s also further supply chain breakdowns and a large economic hit from factories being shut down or not being able to afford to run due to the price of energy.
And also, further business closures will happen because people are using up all their disposable income for energy, and because goods and services are also going up in cost. The combination does not bode well for the small shops many Europeans rely on.
But yes, in northern countries if there is a ‘dark doldrum’ that hits during a real cold snap, people could literally freeze to death in their homes if the gas runs out. Five times as many people are killed by cold than by heat waves in a given year, and a strong heat wave in Europe can kill thousands.
I hadn’t seen this. Could you give a link to where this is being reported? Thanks.
ETA - I see Cardigan has given one cite above.
Air superiority means support for ground troops and assets. Clearly that is not happening. The more planes Russia loses in this failed process the more they need to replace In a war of attrition.
Not likely. Pretty much everybody is a phone call away from help.
And another detailed Washington Post article about the battle to save Kyiv.
The Kyiv battle was very nearly resounding success for the Russians. The main reason for that seems to have been the fact the Ukrainian leadership was totally flabbergasted by the fact that war was actually happening. The Ukrainians defences in the first few days were totally disorganized.
It was the troops on the ground that held firm despite not getting much direction from the top. They proved to be the difference.
And yet people keep dying during extreme weather events.
https://www.axios.com/2022/07/18/heat-wave-europe-death-toll
We were talking about winter conditions and people freezing as a result of Russia cutting off natural gas. Neither of your cites had anything to do with that.
Thank you. I remembered some of the details. The entire narrative helps put the first days of war into context.
One very happy Russian pow explains how he got captured. I’d be happy to survive that shit show and be taken prisoner.
Undoubtedly the inflation due to energy prices will hurt us in Europa economically, and not only us in Europe. The rest of the post is so far off reality that it does not merit replying to.