Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

I think a lot of the question is, how many of those people are still Russian partisans after they’ve actually been occupied by a Russian army behaving, by most accounts, like a classic invading force of previous centuries instead of like the rescuers Putin tried to claim them to be?

I very much doubt the number is zero; but it might be a whole lot fewer than before the invasion. Impossible to tell from where I’m sitting, of course.

FYI he is one of nineteen double recipients of the Medal of Honor. His first was during the Boxer Rebellion in China some fifteen years before his second in Haiti.

Belleau Wood he only got a Navy Cross.

It’s almost certainly fewer.

Some no doubt changed their mind when they saw the indiscriminate thuggery of the Russian occupiers. There was an interview a few weeks ago, for example, with a mayor of an eastern town. He’d previously wanted his area to secede and join Russia. Then he saw firsthand what that meant, and took up arms for Ukraine. I’d need to go find the article to confirm the details, but that’s the gist.

Then there are those whose loyalty did not change, who were happy to work with the Russians to cement their gains. Many of them have now fled from the Ukrainian advance, fearing reprisal for their collaboration with the invaders.

Either way, there are undoubtedly fewer Russian loyalists on the ground in territory recaptured by Ukraine’s forces.

Ukraine captures a top of the line Russian T-90M tank in perfect condition near Kharkiv, and throws a little shade announcing it.

The Pentagon: “Say, remember all that help we’ve given you? Here’s what you can do in return. . . .”

The mx. López Obrador government is very left leaning … so no big surprises, here. They - just like Venezuela and Bolivia - support Russia

AFAIK, the support for Russia was there before the invasion, after the invasion those left leaning countries abstained when voting to condemn Russia, not a repudiation, but not really being supportive of Russia or the USA.

Still, when it came to the United Nations General Assembly vote this week calling on Russia to immediately withdraw its troops, the three countries stopped short of offering Putin their full support.

Nicaragua and Cuba abstained. Venezuela could not vote because it had not paid its member dues.

Experts said Nicaragua and Cuba made a calculation that they had too much to lose by joining Russia, Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea as the only countries to vote against the resolution. Cuba in particular did not want to “burn all its bridges” with the United States, said Vladimir Rouvinski, a political scientist at Icesi University in Colombia.

During the administration of President Obama, the countries restored diplomatic relations. Cuba would like the United States to ease sanctions that limit remittances to the island.

Still, Jennie Lincoln, a senior advisor on Latin America at the Carter Center think tank, called the abstentions “a kick in the shins to the U.S.” and “a way of expressing their anti-imperialist view of the West.”

Apart from abstentions from El Salvador and Bolivia — also places where anti-U.S. sentiment runs high — the rest of Latin America supported the U.N. resolution.

I strongly suspect, as others have already indicated, that support for Russian rule in the Donbas will have dropped precipitously during the last few months chafing under Russian occupation. Expect to see more lines forming at the Russian border as more collaborators flee from retribution as Ukraine forces advance like we saw happen during the Kharkiv offensive. I doubt partisans will be much of a concern for Ukraine.

The same is likely true in Crimea. There have been lots of videos and reports of long lines of cars leaving Crimea. Those aren’t Ukrainians - they are Russians who relocated to Crimea after 2014, or current Russian workers and tourists who are getting out of Dodge. If the war turns to Crimea and it looks like Ukraine is winning, I would expect a mass exodus of Russians if they can get out.

If the Ukrainians take back Kherson and then start moving on the rest of the Donbas and Crimea, that will be the point of maximum risk of a tactical nuke being deployed by Putin, IMO. Hopefully it won’t hapen, but that will be the moment when Putin’s back is against the wall - perhaps literally if he loses Crimea as well.

Why is there cloth all over the outside of that tank? Are they trying to protect it from bug splatter or rocks being kicked up?

They’re gift-wrapping it before sending it state-side.

They forgot the bows and ribbons. It’s not a real present without bows and ribbons.

It’s a camouflage material called Nakidka that’s intended to reduce the chances of detection by infrared, thermal and radar imaging.

Famous Russian singer comes out as against the war. Alla Pugacheva “enjoys an iconic status across the former Soviet Union as the most successful Soviet performer in terms of record sales and popularity” (Wikipedia).

Armenia is disatisfied with the lack of assistance in its Azerbaijan conflict from its CSTO (“Russia’s NATO”) ally, Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/putin-says-russia-able-mediate-azeri-armenian-conflict-yerevan-unhappy-with-2022-09-16/
There have been protests in Armenia calling for the country to leave the CSTO.

don’t the russians have a special gift for winning hearts wherever they walk the earth??? :wink:

the Ukr. have proved their smartness over and over … they will def. leave a corridor open for russians to evacuate … remember every russian in Ukr. could later be “used” as … has called for russian help and invasion as his fundamental rights are being violated… … also a couple of 10.000s (or 100.000s?) of russians heading home to mother russia are def. a destabilizing element as they would need to go somewhere … so a doble-win for Ukr. if they can get rid of them peacefully

at this stage, everything that does de-stabilize russia / is a headache to Putin is good news, I guess …

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1571633553397678081?cxt=HHwWgoDUtfqYyM8rAAAA

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that is a highly interesting synthesis:

I hope she has lefty Russia.

It’s not as if they should not have noticed that was not much help back in 2020 either.

(This is also by the way why NATO requires entrants to have any border issues at least nominally settled – so that nobody can then seek to Article 5 a conflict that was standing but just paused)