Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

(I can’t put in a link from my phone) Anti-Russian feeling is growing in Georgia as a result of the Ukraine war: ‘We Don’t Want To Serve Occupiers’: Backlash in Georgia Against Russian Emigres - The Moscow Times

Kherson is not tiny and it’s not completely unimportant, but as an export cargo port it’s also not huge. It’s absolutely dwarfed by the ports to the west - the Odesa-Pivdennyi-Chonomorsk complex and, separately, Mykolayiv on the Bug (also the main ship-building center, a lot of the Soviet navy was built there). Berdyansk and Mariupol (both under Russian occupation) were both more active ports than Kherson to the east on the Sea of Azov. But it’s those western ports that handled the great bulk of Ukrainian exports.

The Dnipro/Dnieper river has a fair bit of cargo tonnage moving along it, but the bulk of it seems to be internal movement. The largest port is not near the mouth but rather the riverine city of Dnipro closer to the middle.

There seems to be a persistent belief that cutting the Dnipro cuts Ukraine off from the Black Sea. But that is absolutely not the case. Most of Ukraine’s export sea traffic is threatened by Russian interdiction, not by Russian occupation (for the moment).

Yes, I was going to post a caveat; but it was obvious.

That’s a 3 wheeler with a single wheel up front. I think it’s closer to a FriskySport 3 wheeler with the 3rd wheel in the back.

I also had hoped that people would be that sophisticated. Ukraine is really good with their spins and while I completely support them, people need to know they aren’t a detached, disinterested party.

My favorite is their claim about the railroad cars being sunk to make a bridge for the Russians to retreat rather than to supply.

I’d like to see the oneway only sign.

Considering the Russians’ lies, the spins from Ukraine are nothing.

Russia is struggling to annexe Ukraine, but China is annexing Russia pretty effortlessly. Author is the paper’s International correspondent.

I met President Zelensky, an even larger presence than social media suggests.

Australia should (and easily can) provide Ukraine with sufficient armoured vehicles to equip an entire mechanised brigade. We can and should prepare one of the Royal Australian Navy’s large amphibious ships to sail for Europe at the end of November with the following: 50 M1 Abrams tanks, 50 M113 Armoured personnel carriers, 50 Bushmasters and 5000 sets of soldier combat ensemble to equip Ukrainian soldiers. This provides a critical mass of equipment (with spare parts) to re-equip a Ukrainian brigade to fight in 2023. We are already planning to replace our tanks and armoured vehicles. Frankly, Ukraine need them much more that we do at present.

Author is a retired Australia Major General

That Twitter account does do weapons-grade shade, no question:

Moderating

Political jabs aren’t appropriate in breaking news threads. Knock it off.

I didn’t intend it as a political jab. It was an honest question that I realized could be a hijack and didn’t fit the thread. Sorry!

Russians imprison and torture Sri Lankans in Ukraine:

Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania impose travel ban on Russian visitors:

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/baltic-states-close-borders-russians-ukraine-war-90141954

Hopefully, the rest of the world will follow suit.

They’ve taken roughly 60

Even Operation Cobra took about a month and change for the Allies to break out at St. Lo, encircle the Germans in the Falaise Pocket, and destroy them.

The counter-offensive hasn’t been in motion for more than a couple of weeks; it’s still too early IMO to tell what the ultimate effect will be. For all we can tell, in the South, they may still be feeling out where the Russians are weakest, in order to mass their troops and hit them there.

I’m not so sure this will be WWII-style mobile armored warfare; it seems to be a bit more grinding than that- less 1940 France/1941 Russia, and more 1945 Germany broad-front advances.

This makes me wonder how Russia is keeping the Kaliningrad exclave supplied. Do Poland and / or Lithuania still allow rail supplies through, or are Russian ships having to go all the way around to the Baltic to supply them by sea?

A couple few articles, note the dates:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/first-russian-train-reaches-kaliningrad-after-lithuanian-ban/

You forgot “>Ukrainian HIMARS drives by in the background<

I did not see this posted anywhere else, but it does seem a little bit like desperation:

I assume this is to give legitimacy to the war after the fact. Or maybe make it so that any attack is considered an attack on Russia itself since they would now be part of it.

//i\\

I think this is the main reason. I expect the vote will be 105% in favor of joining Russia. Perfectly transparent and fair, of course.

Winter should be of considerable advantage to Ukraine. It makes everything more miserable for everyone, so all things considered, the side with higher morale and reason to fight, should gain even more psychological advantage. Russians have no reason to endure the conditions.

For everyone worrying about Germany freezing in the dark this winter:

While the government tries to stabilize Uniper, authorities say Germany’s gas storage facilities are now more than 90% full in preparation for the winter heating season despite Russia halting gas deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

Germany introduced a requirement for storage to be 75% full by Sept. 1 and raised the targets for October and November to 85% and 95%, respectively, from 80% and 90%. The November target is roughly equal to the amount of gas that Germany used in January and February this year, when temperatures were relatively mild.

So they’re ahead of schedule for storing enough gas to last the coldest two months. It’s almost as if planning ahead and making important changes works.

  1. Remove locals.
  2. Move soldiers in, over the border.
  3. Hold vote.

Fair!

I am, personally, in favor of letting the South-Eastern regions vote for what they want but you would need a neutral party to manage the vote and, more importantly, defining who is and isn’t a local of the regions. You would need to establish a rule like “no one who moved into the country since 2014”.