I don’t see how ‘mobilization’ works. They’ve already been doing recruiting drives through the country. They’ve been sending 50-60 year old men into battle. They tried recruiting in prisons.
They don’t have the logistical capability to really supply the armies they have in the field now, and their officer ranks have been thinned substantially. They are running low on weaponry. What is mobilization supposed to accomplish? How long would it take to go from starting a general mobilization to having effective soldiers heading for battle?
My worry is that a call to mobilization and a declaration of war will be a precursor to Putin declaring that Russia is now in an existential war against the west and the use of nuclear weapons are now on the table.
But I also think calling for general mobilizaation could result in mass uprisings. That’s the last thing he needs right now. Tomorrow’s speech will be very interesting.
I feel like, at this point, Putin has to realize that he screwed the pooch. I think maybe he was hoping that he could get a bail out from India or China at the SCO but that didn’t pan out so, now, his choices are to escalate or de-escalate.
In terms of escalation, probably all that he can feasibly do is perform a micro-conscription to put together a border security force, so that the war stays on Ukraine’s side OR go all out and start flinging nukes. If it’s the latter then I could certainly see why there’s a delay in the announcement - he’s having to fight through his own advisors, trying to convince him to not go that direction.
Otherwise, the path might be for de-escalation. Setting up the annexation votes and making some moves like Russia is going to start performing a full-force conscription could both be negotiating tactics to encourage Ukraine to not be too pushy, as they head into truce negotiations.
isnt that the best reason to HIMARs the living daylight out of it, right now? … once the heat and heavy shelling has been turned on for weeks, claiming “if you keep shooting at us tomorrow we are at war” … will be a tough sell
the point you did not address is: what is the COST of having those vintage pieces brought to Ukr. … just think of the repair-refurb-logistics-organization-training-maintenance and what.not … associated with that … it is a fallacy to think "hey, that stuff sits there in sibiria - its free weapons" … except it will cost you a LOT of resources to get it where you need it and I venture a guess that it’s not a lot of weapon in a 2022 battlefield.
Could as well be that it turns out to be more efficient to be charging forward on a mountainbike than on a museum piece. Bear in mind even with the current equipment the russkys had 3 categories of tanks: the ones that can drive, the ones that can shoot and the ones that can both …
my honest take on the mobilization is: so Putin won’t get killed in 2022 (but surely will in 2023) … its between dying today or next month …(even if next month means 100.000 extra deaths9
This, I think. He is trying desperately to stave off the coup that is so close now he can smell the burning. He’s resourceful and ruthless but I don’t think he is savable now.
Mobilizing now won’t do Russia any good. The troop carriers that the mobilized army would have used have been largely captured or destroyed. A video upthread talked about how the BMPs had crew but no passengers because the passengers would have been the mobilized reservists. And the BMPs were lost because there were no passengers to deploy and protect them. So guys who would have been adequate last February won’t be well-enough equipped to be effective next February.
Apparently Germany has 23 BCM of gas storage capacity. In 2021, they used 90.5 BCM. So they have storage for close to 25% of normal yearly use. With conservation efforts, some other imports likely still an option, I think they can do it okay.
You aren’t looking at a map of the oblasts – they are all of more or less comparable size. What’s the size of Rhode Island is the just piece that Ukraine recently took back in their drive to the east.
Donetsk Oblast is a little over 10,000 square miles, Luhansk about the same (for comparison, Texas is about 268,000). The Ukrainian forces recaptured more than three thousand square miles this month, according to Kyiv.
I think they’d need to ramp up production first, so most would go towards that.
Otherwise, it depends on what quality of soldier you want. We spent 7 months working with Ukraine’s male population, but that was probably to train them up to near-American level. If the goal is just to overwhelm the meat grinder, you don’t need so much time.
It would depend on what Russia felt would be the best strategy.
If they’re planning to double-down on “self sufficiency” then the focus would be on ramping up manufacturing capabilities, and then there’s no large purpose in sending troops out until you’ve got equipment ready for them.
If the goal is to annex, fortify, and call it a “victory”, in as little time as possible, then they might try to use conscripted meat shields while the professional army builds up walls and bases in the captured terrain.
Referendum, what ifs?
I know a lot of folks hate my recommendations of sources. But if these referendums go forward ( believe the results or not ), this episode has some interesting info on possibilities of changes afterward. As well as some info on odd current military situation as well. Not posting it as any pro Russian yap. But interesting as to possible changes that could occur, politically and militarily.
German gas storage 90% full ahead of winter despite Russian cuts
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Germany has a chance of getting through the winter “comfortably” despite the lack of Russian gas. Germany is on track to meet a 95% storage capacity target by November.
Not sure why this reply was posted?
I just wanted to add some hard numbers to illustrate the amount of gas that can be stored. Absent in the article. If Germany can only store 5 cubic feet of natural gas, then 90% does not help much.
I wanted to clarify that they are getting a good enough amount stored to get through.
I replied to a post with that link already. Added more useful information.
Obviously I am targeted. Even if I post useful, pro west information.
Pathetic.
My sources were western ones. And favorable to the German situation.
