Sure, but they can’t do that now. You are talking about a lot of training in unfamiliar aircraft with new equipment and tactics. Frankly, I would hesitate to give Ukraine state of the art systems that could fall into Russian hands. NATO has a bunch of countries right there, maybe they should step up with better weapon systems. Hell, you can walk/drive to the front lines from European NATO countries.
I really don’t know, I can’t think of any. How many HIMARS has Russia managed to destroy? Unless there has been a change in tactics, I believe Ukraine is forbidden to use US supplied weapons to target sites in Russia. Not the annex crap.
The significant issue here is that Vlad has officially posted notice that Russia now claims several eastern oblasts (at least Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzha) to be Russian territory, presumably in order to use the premise that Ukraine is now attacking Russia while Russia is defending their homeland.
Now, it seems unlikely that most of the rest of the world will recognize this annexation as legitimate and may well view it as an illegal/criminal act. Thus, in terms of an international perspective, the Ukraine/Russia border has become a blurred line. If Ukraine were to push past its 2021 recognized borders into actual Russian territory and gain control of it, the international community might well be inclined to allow them to claim it.
After all, there are places where the border between Russia and Ukraine is about as distinct as the border between Colorado and Kansas, and who owns that land has to be a matter of inter-state conensus. Putin has put himself in a profoundly difficult position here, worthy of something some sort of Cheeto-Faced ShitGibbon might do.
Not very well considering how few sorties they have flown since the war started. If they had suppressed Russian air defense this war would be totally different. As it is, no one from either side has been able to acquire air superiority. Airstrikes are basically an afterthought in this war. Heck, it’s been months since we’ve seen the Ghost of Kyiv stories.
Putin has thrown a giant celebration in Moscow, welcoming the new Ukrainian territories as part of Russia.
The point of that is to make sure the world knows there is no going back. Putin is not about to negotiate away those territories. It would be a tremendous loss of face.
In the meantime, Ukraine wants a fast-track acceptance into NATO. Which can’t happen, because NATO doesn’t accept members who are actively engaged in conflict. Ukraine could invoke article 5 immediately, which would put the nuclear powers into a shooting war against each other, and probably be seen by Russia as an existential threat and boost support for the war.
We’re heading into Kobayashi-Maru territory. There don’t appear to be any resolutions of this conflict available that don’t involve some kind of horrific escalation, or forcing Ukraine to capitulate which will lead to more aggression.
And I’m very worried that China, Iran and North Korea could get into the game. Western militaries have dangerously depleted their weapons and ammunition stockpiles in Ukraine. Opportunists will take note.
Or a Russian whose son just got drafted putting a bullet in Putin’s face, and Putin’s successor (whoever that may be) getting the message and chalking up the whole sorry undertaking as Putin’s project rather than Russia’s.
Russia might escalate again, but there’s nothing really new – all of this was very expected. The way out is the same way out from last week, last month, and Feb/March – help Ukraine push the invaders out of Ukrainian territory. If Russia escalates with WMDs (and it’s far from certain that Russian generals and other officers would follow such an order), including tactical nukes, respond with overwhelming conventional NATO force against Russian troops in Ukraine (and, possibly, Russia’s Black Sea fleet).
Putin is still delusional. He still he thinks he can win. There’s no possible Russian victory here.
Ukrainians have already modified two types of their aircraft to fire HARM missiles against Russian air defenses. The attacks have been effective enough to get Ukrainian planes dropping conventional bombs and the Turkish TB2 drones back in the air and active against enemy forces recently. The Russian S-300 air defense systems have been particularly susceptible to HARM interdiction to the point where the S-300 missiles are being launched in surface-to-surface mode as terror weapons against civilians. (no radar activation required).
The most immediate need IMHO are the NASM air defense systems. Besides aircraft, they are effective against most cruise and short range ballistic missiles likely to carry any threatened tactical nuclear weapon.
I agree. Putin can’t be allowed to get away with this, and ‘more sanctions’ isn’t going to get the job done. I just don’t see how that gets done now without some sort of major escalation.
I’m worried about a wildcard, such as China and North Korea announcing that an attack on ‘Russian soil’ will bring them into the conflict, followed by military manoevers that back up the threat. We might be heading for a game of global chicken.
But even absent that, Putin could certainly escalate with tactical nukes against Ukrainian forces, or even a threat to hit Kiev or European cities in countries backing Ukraine with arms.
The problem is that we have no visibility into the power dynamics in Rusdian leadership or the military. For all we know, any rival faction might be even more hawkish than Putin. Or Putin may have an iron grip on the country. Hoping for a coup is not really a great strategy at this point.
Not in terms of his goals before the war, that’s for sure. But if he can hang on to the territory he managed to glom onto, he can spin it as enough of a victory to keep himself in power, and that’s probably all that matters to him right now. He’s going to literally fight to the death to keep it that way, I think.
Your keyboard to God’s ears. But dictators are generally really good at protecting themselves. Many die in office after having ruled despotically for a long time.
Regarding HIMARS.
The Ukrainians built a number of plywood versions for decoy use. The Russians were using their drones to search for the launchers that were long gone. Another factor in the survival is that HIMARS out-ranges almost all Russian artillery guns. The few multiple launch rocket systems that could reach the launch point are only capable of targeting a general area, not a specific target.
Also of note, the primary Russian reconnaissance drone, Orlan-10, besides being shot down is now being captured with regularity. At least one of the acquired anti-drone systems is very effective in taking over the communications link and landing the drome. The drones recently acquired from Iran are not reconnaissance types, more like cruise missiles.
I don’t think there’s any way he can hang onto that territory. Russia continues to weaken, and 300K more random unmotivated, untrained people aren’t going to help. A million more untrained and unmotivated soldiers wouldn’t help. The entire population of Ukraine is motivated to fight for their own lives and families, and as long as we keep them supplied with weapons, Russia’s kleptocratic, corrupt, and inept military cannot hold territory in Ukraine.
I suspect the odds of that are exceedingly low. China isn’t in Russia’s pocket and they have little to gain by getting entangled in a conflict in distant Europe. The logistics of it alone make any substantial tactical participation a near-impossibility. It certainly doesn’t bring them any closer to getting Taiwan.
North Korea is a basket case. Other than stocks of ammo and old artillery they have little to offer. They’d be absolutely paranoid of weakening themselves re:South Korea.
I’d agree this w/ attendant escalation to be the realistic worst-case scenario. Far, far more likely than another world war.