Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

From the BBC today:

Mongolia says it is ready to issue residency permits to all Russian arrivals who request them.

It comes amid a Russian exodus to neighbouring countries, triggered by President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a partial military mobilisation on 21 September.

Mongolian immigration agency chief Nerguin Uuganbayar did not specify the permits’ duration. He said 6,268 Russians had entered via Altanbulag, a border town, in the past week.

The Russian call-up affects reservists – not conscripts – but alarm has spread among Russian men of fighting age.

Russians can enter Mongolia visa-free and stay for 30 days, then request an extension.

Kazakhstan reported that 98,000 Russians had arrived since Putin’s announcement.

In the Caucasus, an enormous queue of Russian cars developed at Georgia’s border. Georgia said about 10,000 Russians were arriving every day – double the previous average number.

Finland has shut its border to most Russian visitors, though there are some exemptions, for example for family reunions and work. Poland and Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania made the same move earlier.

But their logistics still sucks. More and more I think Russia’s failures were not “Russian leadership made bad decisions”, but rather “the Russian military does not have the capability for competence”.

Lyman:

I sure hope this is bogus; the Ukraine army seems too smart to use Banzai attacks or human wave tactics.

There’s less shame in being defeated by NATO biolabs supersoldiers.

Logistics, particularly in Russia these days, suffers from a two-fold problem: 1) Usually not being esteemed enough, or even at all, compared to the fancy “combat” units, so they tend to be neglected, while 2) Also being in the best position to enrich themselves by looting their own supply lines.

If you were a Russian quartermaster, and had the choice between making a few bucks off selling stolen material on the black market, or shipping it to the front so some general who thinks you’re a loser can fight a battle, which would you choose?

The spray painting of the Russian embassy confuses me a little. It looks like they would have needed ladders to do that.

It looks like basic vandalism. I think a stripe of blue over a stipe of yellow would have been a better choice.

The whole thing reminds me of Napoleon’s “conquest” of Spain and his subsequent defeats by Wellesly/Wellington.

warmonitor is a normally fairly accurate and very well connected “real-time” source:

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Russian forces have completely withdrawn from the settlement.

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I get the feeling we see another goodwill-speed-run this weekend

interested in getting feedback from russian telegram channels … concerning “thermal sensations on overall mood” … when will the first starting to call for change of leadership???

=> could @Kedikat help out there with current information?

I don’t know about that. Here in my neighborhood we occasionally get a particular building or two spray-painted in 12’-15’ high letters, and it looks very sloppy as if it were created with one continuous motion very quickly. I don’t know if they use extension poles or what, but I doubt its ladders, given the look of the graffiti and the fact that it’s on a main thoroughfare with reasonable patrol car presence where ladders would just be too conspicuous and take too much time (and not be able to create the wide looping letters.)

I believe the idea is red for blood. I don’t think it was supposed to be any more than that.

That was my thought as well: it’s meant to be smears of blood, nothing fancier.

and the guys seem to have stood on the window-sill and hence be able to spray around the recessed windows - fairly evident if you look at the pics

No plan survives contact with the enemy.

so lots of (very early and completely un-verified) data points on the Lyman run:

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graphic vid (some dead soldiers seen)
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That was my first thought. Stand on the window sills. But the scale still seems off for even a tall guy to do it. :man_shrugging:

More Crimean strikes, it looks like: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576227894053208065

The Consulate was sprayed from the ground with a hose. I can’t find the video now, but there’s security camera footage on twitter.

Might just be a plane crash.

That just looks like someone playing a video file using VLC media player?