I admit, I may be guilty of just this.
Well, that would depend on what kind of equipment and how much of it is actually being lost. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of data on that, at least not that I’ve seen.
Maybe. But maybe not, too. My guess is that the main Russian advances have their most modernized or newly built old stuff, which…yeah, it’s going to be hard for Russia to replace that stuff, especially if the economic sanctions bite. You can see they already have a lot of trouble building state-of-the-art equipment…they only have like 20 of their vaunted T-14s, for instance, and only a handful of the Su-57s. Even the number of T-64/72s, T-80/90s, etc and the like that have been upgraded and improved is limited. They certainly have a ton of old crap that hasn’t been kept up, but I seriously doubt any of that is doing more than sitting in warehouses. And that old crap is certainly there to be upgraded and refurbished…but all that takes time and money.
I don’t know if they will be able to replace their losses in equipment if they are losing a lot of it. Or even the ordinance they are using.
Speaking of broken .ru things… anyone else having trouble accessing Russian news/political sites right now? Duma, Kanal 1 are down for me. RT was down earlier but now it’s back up.
Anonymous claims to be attempting to disrupt as much as possible in Russia. That may be part of it.
There’s something else, though: a glee at the Russians getting embarrassed. And I think that is real; the Russian military really does appear to be in far worse shape than realized, in equipment quality, morale, training, and other factors. They are still the Goliath here, but even ignoring the Ukranian resistance completely, it’s obvious that Russian tanks could not roll into Europe in a matter of days. If Ukraine really had full-fledged NATO support, it would be a turkey shoot. NATO would gain air supremacy in a day and destroy the Russian armor immediately after. The Russians are depending solely on the West’s unwillingness to escalate past a certain point here.
When the Soviet Union collapsed I figured we’d get about a decade before it started getting nasty again. Totally missed the jihad thing, though.
Sure, it is nice that the aggressors in all of this seem to be having a lot harder time than anyone thought. I recall some of the threads on this from before the war, speculating that if there was a conflict Russia would roll through Ukraine in days or maybe a few weeks. I never thought that was the case, but I have to say that, especially considering the seeming lack of planning on Ukraine’s part before the invasion, they have done a great job, and the Russians have been both surprised and, I think, embarrassed…and it’s nice that folks are seeing that they aren’t some unstoppable force, but they have feet of clay like everyone else.
I think that this has also caught China a bit flat-footed…I think they expected a swift and easy conquest, and that they had put in the hooks to mitigate the expected sanctions. Now they seem to be rethinking their stance.
All of that aside, though, Russia really is the Goliath in this, and Ukraine really is the David. If Russia really wants to take Ukraine, they can. And, they are steadily grinding through Ukraine…and, sadly, steadily upping the amount of violence and wider spread attacks. That’s another thing…I still think that the Russians thought they would just roll in and Ukraine would surrender quickly, collapse, maybe turn over the Ukrainian government to Putin for show trials as nazis and the like. So, I don’t think they wanted to go all out…just a show invasion, and the walls would crumble (sort of like Hitler’s speech that all the Soviet Union would take is a good kick and it would all come down). That hasn’t happened, and the Ukrainians are making them pay a real price for doing this. And the west is also making Russia pay a much bigger price, IMHO, than Putin et al expected they would be.
That’s not true. They can destroy Ukraine, but they cannot take it because they have no way of holding it. This is why the Soviet Union broke apart in the first place. They knew all along they couldn’t hold all those countries if they took to the streets. It was always a VERY expensive house of cards.
Ukraine’s best strategy would be to lay a path of roses to an empty building and let them set up camp. Every person elected to a puppet government gets a free casket and there isn’t fuck-one Putin can do about it.
I’m not sure the people of Eastern Europe knew that for sure until 1989. But every Ukrainian is aware of it now. Without an international ideology like communism to make common cause with a satellite government, all Russia can fall back on is national identity and they have already lost that battle in Ukraine. Ukraine may become a Russian province (for a short time) but it will always be a province in perpetual in insurrection.
I more or less agree, but I’m hopeful that the characterization of Russia as being the “Goliath” here may turn out to not be quite as true as many – most notably Putin – believed. We need to keep in mind that Russia is being subjected to an unprecedented economic chokehold that is just going to get worse, while Ukraine is getting both financial aid and massive weapons shipments, as I noted in my previous post. What Russia has is being drawn down and slowly obliterated; what Ukraine has is being continually resupplied, at least so far. It’s heartening to see the extent to which Ukraine has global support.
I’m seeing reports on Twitter that a lot of ex-soldiers from many countries are traveling to Ukraine to join in the defense. Many of them are from their countries various special operations teams.
There are hacktivists working on disrupting trains in Belarus, too.
Which explains Putin playing the “I’ve got nuclear weapons on standby” card so quickly.
Well, Russia does have the powerhouse nations of North Korea, Syria, Belarus and Eritrea on their side, so there’s that. Does Eritrea produce iPhones? I think North Korea can supply mud, and a few sticks that have not been eaten yet by hungry farmers.
North Korea can also supply technology …
I see no reason to think this is true. I’m sure that Ukraine’s numbers are, at best, akin to WWII “confirmed air kills” that ended up being inflated 3-4 times over the enemy’s recorded losses after the war, and possibly completely fabricated propaganda to keep morale up. But, on the other hand, Russia has been lying through its teeth to it’s citizens since this started. They have every reason to heavily underreport their losses and no reason whatsoever to be honest about them. Trying to determine which set of numbers is closer to the truth is like trying to determine which of Picasso’s Guernica and Munch’s The Scream is closest to being in D flat minor.
This would make a great Saturday Night Live skit:
“Have you captured a Russian tank or armored personnel carrier and are worried about how to declare it?”
i agree…
there is a lot of monty python going on at the time …
the whole “I am out there picking a tank with my tractor” routine
A big factor in WW2 was the rate at which wartime industrial economies could manufacture replacement firepower as it was lost in battles. Tanks, artillery, ships and aircraft. It lasted a long time because the production rates were balanced until eventually the factories far out of reach of the bombers in Russia and the US were able to out produce Germany.
The rate of loss of modern heavy weapons is much greater and stocks will become depleted quickly. Many countries are supplying Ukraine with new weapons. But Russia can only use what it has in stock. Eventually they are going to have difficulty replacing their losses. The rate of production of weaponry is not enough because the economy is not mobilised for war.
So how long can the Russian military last before its firepower is too depleted to continue to make advances?
How much punishment can Ukraine take before its cities become Grozny-fied under a relentless Russian artillery and missile barrage with huge loss of life. They many be able to deal with artillery, but long range missiles are out of reach.
I am sure there military analysts poring over satellite photos counting up the losses.
Say, that’s a nice bit of armour here, Colonel. We wouldn’t want anything to happen to it.
This sketch has a soldier who wants to quit. Also Mafia.