(a response to this tweet was: How is Lukashenka going to defend himself against the aggressive Poles now?)
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I have a hunch:
given that Lukashenko is not really well seated, I can absolutely see a “revolution” being started in Belarusia … ousting him and then, once the fire is buring - it might move to the east … and spill-over
That sounds ominous. But where will Russia find experienced tank crews and supporting infantry?
The Guardian recently did a piece about tanks. The infantry support is vital.
While the Russians are surely regretting the loss of over 2,000 tanks, they’ve got to be regretting the loss of the trained tank crews even more.
What’s the condition of Ukrainian reserves? A fresh Russian attack on Kyiv would require committing them to the defence of the capital and if the troop’s aren’t sufficient, then they will have to remove some from the East.
Soon they will be regretting the loss of 2000 more tanks and their crews.
The Russians are going to invade the north again.
During the Rasputitsa. Again. Like in February.
What is this whole invasion is as a result of a drunken bet between two General Staff members on whether Rasputitsa hindered modern military Operations.
That’d make more sense than any other explanation that’s been offered for this mess.
The one thing that makes me doubt this is that Putin took the credit for building the bridge and played it up as cementing his claim on Crimea. He was apparently there to cut the ribbon when it opened. Having this bridge blown up makes him look even worse than he already was. I also don’t think he cares one bit about having a cover for bombing civilians. Russia has been killing civilians in wholesale lots since the war started.
Yes, we’re all pretty much guesstimating at so many things in this war.
This has to be on the minds of any former Soviet republics. When will Russia stop if they win in Ukraine?
That can’t be right, there’s no “3” in Keep Calm And Carry On. 
It sucks that Ukraine didn’t have that ability from day one. I don’t really see the west allowing them longer range missiles that can reach into Russia in the near future.
I’m ignorant here, is his hold really that precarious? I’ve seen a lot of posts implying he’s one mistake short of a coup.
If they couldn’t do it the first time, with better troops, equipment and weather, why do they think it will work now? Just how heavy a drinker is Putin?
And based on the skills demonstrated by the Ukrainian military to date, I assume they have their defence plans all worked out for this eventuality.
Fair point about Ukr reserves. At some point they may have trouble.
NATO needs to train Ukraine tank crews and infantry this winter. War game maneuvers to practice strategy.
IMaybe in America? We have great Mechanized infantry training.
Putin needs to improve troop morale. One way to do this is snappy uniforms. Maybe- all black with silver? Then, take the Z used and double it, so everyone wears a ZZ on their uniform? 
Lukashenko appears to have made his choice.
Or Putin made it for him. Whatever.
Well, the Russians could make it very uncomfortable for the Ukr military, even without taking Kyiv, if they play it smart which they have failed to do.
Even a penetration of 20-30 puts central Kyiv within range of field artillery. If they dig in and pound away ala Grozny, or Fallujah, they will make the Ukrainians have to chose between letting their capital be reduced or attacking entrenched troops with lots of artillery.
Kiev (as it then was’) in 1941 became the birthplace of the aphorism no city is worth your Army. If the Russians play it smart, they could so that again. But, play it smart hasn’t been their forte this year.
My apologies, I got the wrong link. This is the news about the fire on a Moscow TV tower from yesterday:
Gold. It would have to be gold. Not second-rate silver. With red accents because Russians like red.
help my memory … how many himars were defending grozny and fallujah?
how did the russians handle artillery there that outranged theirs? … be specific in you answer…
my guess … coming again from belorusia will open the west’s floodgates of long range ordenance … I can be wrong, but an awful lot of (belo)russians will die right at the border, possibly w/out leaving their beloved country
I think Lykachenko will not see x-mas in 2022
Ukraine has HIMARS that outranges Russian artillery. If Belarus/Russia digs in artillery to ‘reduce’ Kiev (nice euphemism for killing thousands of civilians), they can be reduced right back, without Ukraine’s army being put at risk. Russia’s best artillery has a range of around 40km. Standard HIMARS loads can be had with ranges from 32-92km. And if the escalation causes the west to give Ukraine ATACMS rounds for the HIMARS, the range goes out to as much as 300 km, precision-guided. Ukraine could then hit military formations before they’ve even left Belarus.
Also, Russia/Belarus’ artillery isn’t very accurate at long range. So it won’t be very useful against Ukrainian artillery. But Ukraine’s M777 guns firing Excalibur rounds can hit a precise target from 40km, while Russian artillery is only good for area bombing at its maximum range.
The proper response by the west to Putin’s escalation and Belarus’ entry into the war should be to provide the long range weaponry that Ukraine needs to keep the enemy from getting anywhere close to artillery range of major cities. If they get ATACMS, Ukraine should tell Russia that if a single artillery shell lands in a city the Crimean bridge is toast, and the Crimean airbase and sea assets will be next, followed by any airbase in Belarus that launches aircraft at Ukraine.
This (a potential Russian Zerg rush) seems like the sort of thing that the Su-25 would be perfect for. I wonder if any of the old Soviet countries have any more around that could be donated to Ukraine.
NM oopsie
Rumor has it those massed troops are Belorussians but plain old Russian Russians shipped in by rail from Russia.