Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

[Zakalwe]

@txtumbleweed

The berm looks okay, but the the triangle objects have to be dragon’s teeth and whoever is managing the emplacement doesn’t seem to know how to use them. The spacing is too far apart to be effective. They need to be irregularly placed and securely anchored so that a tank can’t just push them aside.

Fascinating article. Thanks for the TIL!

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Yeah, WWII ones look like they’re firmly secured to the ground.

The text accompanying the video says:

Luhansk region, construction of the “Maginot” line named after Puten

We can we probably assume that the Russians aren’t planning on launching any offensives from here any time soon.

[slash2k]

Igor Girkin is a Russian hardliner nationalist; he was one of the leading forces in the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the creation of the Donetsk People’s Republic. He’s also under indictment in the Netherlands for his part in shooting down Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, and sanctioned by just about every Western nation, having been accused of war crimes from Bosnia to Chechnya. He has harshly criticized the tactics and leadership of the Russian army in Ukraine and called for Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to be executed by firing squad; he also thinks the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be a great idea.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

That Twitter account isn’t actually Igor Girkin - it’s very much anti-Russian.

The real Igor “Strelkov” Girkin posts on Telegram.

[Magiver]

@Cardigan

If the Russians do decide to open another front, it would likely be a foolish move on their part.

Opening up a 2nd front in a losing war. That reminds me of something…

[Magiver]

@Al128

Belarus, while under threat from Polonia (/s), is sending war assets to putin

Maybe they’re as well maintained as Russian equipment.

[Magiver]

I’d like Ukraine to sneak into Russia with a dozen putin shaped hydrogen balloons launched over Moscow showing the head of putin with a Hitler mustache dripping red paint on the city. when they’re shot down they explode in glorious fashion.

[eschereal]

@Al128

Belarus, while under threat from Polonia

Maybe Polonia can tend Vlad one of those nice glowy cocktails they are famous for.

[Al128]

.

seems that the russian - under new leadership - are becoming more aggressive:
.
to mixed results:

WarMonitor🇺🇦

WarMonitor🇺🇦

[FlikTheBlue]

@Al128

seems that the russian - under new leadership - are becoming more aggressive:
.
to mixed results:

The first twitter feed has claims that Russia has lost 20 something of those helicopters throughout the war so far. That means last nights losses represent about 20% or so of their total war losses for those particular helicopters. All in one night. Maybe this new general isn’t such hot stuff after all. Supposedly there were only a little over 100 built, so they took a significant hit in just one night of operations.

[Ulfreida]

@Cardigan

That may be the case for Lukashenko and Belarus, but other reports have Russians arriving in Belarus “by the trainload .

No reputable source is reporting this, only the Washington Examiner, which has published evidence-free stories like a rancher finding muslim prayer rugs at the Mexican border. It’s been documented that Belarus is sending their ancient tanks etc. to Luhansk, though, and Lukashenko is making his usual wild threats.

[Cardigan]

True, the Washington Examiner is NOT a reliable or reputable source for accurate or unbiased information.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

As far as I can tell, the Russian build-up in Belarus story derives from one tweet by Kyiv Post Special Correspondent:

Jason Jay Smart

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby appears to refute the story:

Ostap Yarysh

[aceplace57]

ISW comments about Surovikin are reassuring.

Tbe analysis of Belarus supplying ammunition and tanks indicates it’s unlikely they’ll join the war.
Cite Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 11 | Institute for the Study of War

Surovikin’s appointment will not lead to further “Syrianization” of Russian operations in Ukraine because the battlespace in Ukraine is fundamentally different from the battlespace in Syria, and direct comparisons to Surovikin’s Syrian “playbook” obfuscate the fact that Russia faces very different challenges in Ukraine. Russia cannot further “Syrianize” the war largely because of its failure to gain air superiority, which precludes its ability to launch the kind of massive carpet-bombing campaigns across Ukraine that it could, and did, conduct in Syria. ISW has previously assessed that Russian air operations would have been markedly different if conducted in contested airspace or a more challenging air-defense environment, as is the case in Ukraine.[11] It is therefore highly unlikely that Surovikin’s role as theatre commander will cause a fundamental change in Russian air and missile operations in Ukraine as long as Ukraine’s Western backers continue to supply Kyiv with the air defenses needed to prevent Russia from gaining air superiority.

Russian military officials may instead have coordinated Surovikin’s appointment and the October 10 cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure to rehabilitate the perception of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Whoever was appointed as theatre commander would have overseen the October 10 cruise missile strikes, which Ukrainian intelligence reported had been planned as early as October 2 (and which Surovikin certainly did not plan, prepare for, and conduct on the day of his appointment).[12] Russian milbloggers have recently lauded both the massive wave of strikes on October 10 and Surovikin’s appointment and correlated the two as positive developments for Russian operations in Ukraine.

[aceplace57]

Has anyone seen analysis of damage from the missile attacks? How bad is it?

I know critical infrastructure was targeted. Russia is trying to destroy Ukraine’s power grid. That would inflict tremendous suffering during winter.

[aceplace57]

I found this article about Lviv. Two days of attacks has severe consequences.

Cite Lviv braces for cold times as Putin seeks to weaponise winter | Ukraine | The Guardian

For all that the missiles would continue to rain down it was the cold that the Russians believed could break the Ukrainian spirit. Stock up on fire wood, buy in heaters, insulate where you can, Sadovyi counselled. It was time for Ukrainians to resort to the “old-time methods”.

“We are in for hard weeks and months ahead. Four [electricity] substations in the region have been put out of operation and to bring them back into operation they need transformers that are not available. It is hard right now to predict what will happen tomorrow. We will do all we can to keep the medical facilities operating.”

Lviv, just 50 miles from the Polish border, has at times felt somewhat removed from Vladimir Putin’s war.

15 missiles rained down on electricity substations in the Lviv region on Monday as part of a country-wide assault on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure that killed 20 people.
Repairs were swiftly made here and the electricity and water supply restored to much of the city by Monday evening.

Then Tuesday morning came, and dozens more were fired into the city from aircraft and ships on the Black Sea.

Some were blown out of the sky by the Ukrainian air-to-ground defences but three solidly hit their target, wiping out two electricity substations in the suburbs, injuring one worker but posing a far more serious threat to the health of the wider city.

[Steve_MB]

@aceplace57

the battlespace in Ukraine is fundamentally different from the battlespace in Syria

I am reminded of the joke about the Egyptian who blamed the Six-Day War defeat on Soviet military advisors who suggested using the strategy that beat Napoleon and Hitler: draw the enemy deep into your territory and wait for winter.

[aceplace57]

That didn’t take long. I hope random people weren’t accused and arrested.

It’s interesting most of the people were Russian.
Cite Crimea bridge attack arrests as market in Donetsk region attacked

Russia says it has detained eight people in connection with Saturday’s explosion on a key bridge linking Russia to Crimea.

Its FSB security service said five of those held were Russians, while the others were Ukrainian and Armenian.

It says Kyiv was behind the attack but a Ukrainian official described Russia’s investigation as “nonsense”.

[Buck_Godot]

@aceplace57

I hope random people weren’t accused and arrested.

I’m sure that the Russians wouldn’t accuse and arrest random people,.They would accuse and arrest carefully selected people who they didn’t like. As to whether those people had anything to do with the attack on the bridge? Probably not.

[Cardigan]

Ukraine launches yet another offensive in the northeast (Luhansk). ~40k troops attacking across a relatively broad front extending from Svatove to just north of Kremina.

Ukraine Launches MASSIVE Offensive | 40 THOUSAND Troops | Luhansk Front [Ukraine War Map Analysis] - YouTube