No–a ceasefire would also benefit millions of Ukrainian civilians…
We have seen over the past week that Russia is capable of destroying much of the electric grid in Ukraine.
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[quote]blackouts affected hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, and there are concerns that such attacks will leave civilians very vulnerable as winter approaches.
“The latest figures are … 30% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been damaged said Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, to CNBC Wednesday.[/quote]
Russia retreated last month. This month, not so much. Right now there is a news blackout on the situation in Kherson, which implies that Russia is not surrendering easily, and Ukraine may be suffering heavy losses. So a ceasefire may be valuable for Ukrainian soldiers, just like the civilians I mentioned above.
Also, Ukraine (and the USA) are running very low on those Himar missiles.
So a ceasefire might become even more important to Ukraine
Yep. Both sides would re-arm up during a ceasefire, that’s for sure. But what a ceasefire would do is stop Ukrainian momentum. It would enable Russia to solidify its collapsing lines and shore them up.
Sweep those Russian asses all the way to the border I say.
Hard to say, but I would argue Ukrainian momentum would continue. Winter generally favors whichever side has higher morale and better equipment. The cold makes everyone miserable, but the Ukrainian troops have much more motivation to fight and endure it than Russian conscripts who never wanted to be in Ukraine to begin with.
Winter may indeed bog down transportation and movement, for sure. But the -10 degree temps will further worsen Russian morale and may induce more quitting or surrendering. Operation Desertion Storm at work…
That’s a strange update. The second section, “Ukraine has every right to fight to liberate all the territory Russia has illegally seized”, is a straight demagoguery piece. Correct or not, it’s not a status update of the situation on the ground.
Likewise, pointing out how NATO would enjoy taking Southeast Ukraine is nonsensical.
Something strange is happening at ISW. If they do another strange update, we might all need to look for a better, alternative source.
I have to call shenanigans with the headlines related to this. Russia seems to be targeting power infrastructure in Kyiv - nothing more, nothing less.
In theory, that could be to try and freeze civilians during the winter but it could also be as simple as shutting down their internet access, so that communications are worse from the capital, trying to coordinate the military. I’m not sure how hard this sort of damage is to correct.
In any case, Russia doesn’t seem to have been trying to bomb civilians and, when you read a headline “Civilians being bombed” and then you open the news article and there was one death in the whole city and all of the damage was inflicted against infrastructure, not civilians, that’s going to drive down trust in the media and increase belief in the “fake news” theory.
If the goal is to freeze people over the winter then, realistically, that’s a worse thing to do than bombing people on the sidewalks. There’s no reason not to write a headline like that. Likewise, if there’s some other obvious military goal then, maybe, it won’t be as great of a headline, but it’s still news and worth reporting as such.
THIS might also be an answer why RU does not have air superiority … lots of reports lately about RU airforce falling out of the sky …
a stranded tank might not be that highly visible, but planes and 'copters don’t stay up there if they break down … so, it seems to be a variation of the RU “maintainance desaster” theme.
Unfortunately not. They have been mostly retreating in the northeast and southeast, but have been inching forwards in the center east. A village here, a village there. On a map relatively inconsequential so far. But not I imagine for the poor people in those villages or the Ukrainian forces fighting on the defensive around places like Bakhmut.
I came in to post this also. The article mentions that there is growing resentment about conscription and a number of conscription officers have been attacked. This might not have been a Putin purge to send a message - this may have been a pushback from the conscriptees.
Or suicide. Maybe. I suppose that’s possible. Barely.
I doubt the US and other countries providing weapons to Ukraine really want to establish a precedent that they are responsible for how the weapons they manufacture and sell are ultimately used.
This is along my line of thinking. If Putin offs someone it’s usually ruled “suicide” or “murder-suicide” right away. This one is different in that they are saying murder or suicide, they can’t tell yet.
My experience with them is that they have a lot of free time to drink in bars compared to others in the military.
Yes, no way that anyone is going to seriously go there. Not sure how we can punish Iran anyway.
I’m curious why we (combined w/NATO) haven’t supplied Ukraine with Drone Jammers.
Frequency jammers are common enough that consumers can buy them all day long.
Is it a supply issue, or are we reluctant to give the technology to non-NATO members?
