What does Mitch McConnell have to do with this?
Sure. But the initial premise was that it might not be safe to maintain POWs in Ukraine. I got the sense that the idea of a neutral country ceding nominal control over a portion of its territory to maintain POW camps was seen as a means to end, put forward as a sort of fig leaf.
What I and others are suggesting is, to the extent such a scheme is possible, no fig leaf is necessary provided adequate humanitarian grounds can be established as a basis for it. But of course that is an overly-legalistic evaluation. The reality may be that, whether or not such a scheme would be permissible under international law, Russia is going to react how it’s going to react. Much as the niceties of the Hague, the various Geneva Conventions, and longstanding custom seem to go out the window when a warring nation deems it expedient to disregard them. Absent an enforcement mechanism (and sanctions certainly can be an attempt at one) there is no such thing as international law. Just some nice ideas.
Fair enough.
Kursk was smack in the middle of summer, not during a rasputitsa.
I have two friends in Ukraine. Well, ONE friend in Ukraine, as the other got himself and his family out. The one still there didn’t post on social media for several days, which had me very worried, but she did so this morning.
First post: “Yes, I am safe. No, I am not OK, as my friends and family are not safe.”
Second post: “Donations are really a great help but right now the most crucial thing is to close the sky.”
Of course, “closing the sky” is not going to happen 
, but if he can’t have that, Zelensky wants warplanes, according to this.
The Ukrainian president has repeated that appeal several times, and on Thursday said if the U.S. and NATO will not establish a “no-fly” zone, they should provide warplanes so Ukraine can defend itself.
I thought countries were already providing warplanes. No? If not, why not?
Does the west really have the stomach to impose Russian level sanctions on China? I can’t even remember the last time I bought something “Made in Russia”, but look at all the trouble just slowing exports from China has caused.
A weak response against Russia would have really emboldened China, but they still might be untouchable when they decide to take Taiwan. The take over of Hong Kong wasn’t military, but still has mostly resulted in a big “meh.”
My wife and I considered this, it seems like an immediate barrier to it would be that it’s easy to misconstrue airplanes being ferried from Poland to Ukraine as being aircraft being sent to attack Russian assets in Ukraine piloted by NATO pilots. If you could get them there on truck or sneak them in, it’d probably happen.
The takeover of Hong Kong was the result of treaty obligations between China and the UK.
But it’s precisely becaue it wasn’t military that it was a big “meh”. Britain’s lease on part of Hong Kong ran out, and it had to surrender it. It did so, in accordance with its treaty with China, plus the other parts of Hong Kong as well, by a new treaty. That was all in compliance with principles of international law.
Yes, but it was supposed to remain a self-governed for another 50 years after reverting back to China, or something like that. It did not.
Hong Kong was on a multi-year lease to the British and the lease ran out, which is a different situation than either Taiwan or Ukraine.
Uh-huh. Did anyone get that in writing? Because if they didn’t it’s meaningless.
Third identical response shows just how much of a “meh” the take over of Hong Kong was to the West. Existing structures of government and the economy were to be maintained for 50 years from the hand over. Instead, China waited a few years, and then installed a puppet government, and severely limited freedoms. The free press has been eliminated, opposition politicians have been jailed, and protestors arrested. The Umbrella Revolution and protests were only a few years ago.
You may all scoff if you like, but I am as always not at all certain China CAN take Taiwan, with or without U.S. military support. At least in the next few years. It is one thing to (rather hamfistedly) invade a mostly flat steppe with which you share a huge border. It’s rather another to attempt a massive amphibious invasion, especially when said amphibious forces are not yet fully fleshed out. Even now China has been concentrating mostly on building several very impressive looking larger blue-water assault ships. Those appear very alarming and get a lot of press. But they don’t seem to be investing yet in the substantial fleet of smaller blue-collar landing ships and troop transports they’d need for a mass invasion.
Plus even given the disparity of circumstances, Russia’s difficulties should be having a sobering effect on would-be military adventurists. It’s not so easy as it looks on maps in a conference room.
I get why people are concerned (“Sudetenland!”), but I think the blithe assumption that Taiwan is doomed if China decides to make a move are a little overly pessimistic.
I’ve seen some expert opinion that the column stalled outside Kyiv will be running out of food and supplies in the next couple of days.
They’re not going to sit there for long with no food or heating. My guess is that we’ll soon start to see mass surrenders.
…anthem interspersed with messages including “death to the aggressor… and Putin the Dickhead…glory to Ukraine!”
Recording of shortwave channel in tweet.
The whole thread is interesting.
From UK Defence Intelligence:
I’m really showing my ignorance here, but why would Russia assume they’re NATO planes? Why couldn’t we openly say, “Hey, we’re sending planes”? Because it might tick off Putin so that he’d start nuking?
And on that note, why isn’t Putin afraid of our (the West’s) nuclear capability? Is he too bonkers to think about MAD? Or is he convinced from our passivity during past aggressions that the US is too wimpy to respond in kind? Note: I’m definitely not saying we should respond in kind. Nor am I saying we’d be wimps if we didn’t. Just trying to see it as he would.
Kyiv Independent:
The staff of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant remain trapped 10 days after it was captured by Russian forces.
“We cannot replace people, they have been working their shift for 10 days already. They are divided into two groups, replacing each other, but they are tired mentally and physically, emotionally,” said Yury Fomichev, Mayor of Slavutych, a city in northern Ukraine built for the evacuated personnel of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant after the 1986 disaster.