Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Compared to where else, though? These corporations are being asked to take sides and the Russian side is by no means the more profitable one.

You would think they could have figured this out for themselves 10 days ago.

You’d think, but there are reporters, I think.

Putin is delivering word salad in front of a table full of stewardesses. He’s mad.

Now we’re wandering into a Mel Brooks script I think. Geez, Putin is screwy as hell right now. Scary thought.

I remember when Nixon opened trade with China. The hope was encouraging international investment in China and Russia would prevent war. Mutual Trade would make war impractical and too costly.

Closing 950 McDonald’s in Russia and Ukraine hurts economies everywhere. Whoever provides the beef. Whoever sells the flour and the bakery for the buns. The employees at those restaurants are Russian. Their income supports the local economy.

It’s beyond crazy to damage several economies because Putin wants control of Ukraine.

Do you have a better suggestion? I mean carpet bombing Russia is still off the table and I’m hoping conceding the Ukraine to a tin-plated madman of a dictator is also off the table.

Again. Crazy for who? Putin? I would agree. For the West? It’s a hell of a lot saner than trading off parts of Europe in exchange for a few more rubles in McDonald’s corporate account. Believe it or not, war is bad for business, too.

I understand Putin’s actions are responsible. What he’s doing damages international economies. I’m not sure what will happen long term.

This goes far beyond Ukraine.

What? We all have our lives to lose in a MAD scenario. It’s true that there are more people in the West than in Russia, but that doesn’t mean that our lives are more valuable than theirs. We all only have one life to lose, and lose it we will in a nuclear war. My guess is the vast majority of the world would be completely screwed in a MAD scenario. Maybe some of the countries in South America like Chile and Argentina would come out in decent shape, but the rest of us would either be dead or wishing we were.

Based on reports of Putin’s extreme precautions regarding COVID and poisoning, it’s certain he doesn’t want to die just yet. But, BIG BUT, Russia’s system for transfer of political power might prove fatal for Vlad, and if he’s suddenly facing that scenario… well, he might say Fuck that Mean Old World.

Western leaders have to answer to their electorate and business leaders though, or at least put up the pretense of caring about their concerns. The West thinks they have it pretty well-off now, and will drag out the appeasement process as long as humanly possible, so that their house of niceties don’t come crashing down.

On the other hand, my impression is that it’s practically a one-man show in Russia, and I hope I’m wrong on this, but I get the feeling that Putin will gladly burn it all down to spite the West, no matter what wailing or gnashing of teeth comes from his people.

Israeli Prime Minister Bennett flew to Moscow today, in secret, and is currently meeting with Putin. He’s the first Western leader to meet with him since this began, and Israeli officials say that he went there with the White House’s blessing to try to mediate peace.

I doubt much will come out of it, but who knows?

I venture the following guesses (having worked in senior positions in multinational companies):

the reason why Apple/Burburry/McD…/xyz are pulling out of russia is NOT their committment with “world-peace” …

It is running scenarios and finding out that under those sanction-circumstances their businesses will no longer be profitable for the next 20 or so years.

And if they withdraw now they might get some free PR-goodwill out of this - and this news sound so much better than anouncing in 6 months “Sorry, but we at McD went bankrupt in russia

The crappiest of those might even stifle others on their way out by not paying for products the already took delivery and not paying severence packages to workers … (I hope i am wrong here)

So MAD is out, and now whoever is crazy and/or desperate enough to do some nuclear saber-rattling has all the power? That’s the way it’s looking to me.

The last day has been one of the most disastrous days for the Russian air force since WWII.

CONFIRMED loses in the last 30 hours (according to a journalist at the UK Defence Journal):

  • 1x Su-30SM multirole aircraft
  • 2 Su-34 strike aircraft
  • 2 Su-25 close air support aircraft
  • 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
  • 2 Mi-8 transport helicopter
  • 1 Orlan-10 UAV

Plus being an amphibious assault instead of just driving armor through a border, raise the difficulty factor by ten. Being more interested in the blue water conflict in the East and South China Sea I don’t know if they’d even have enough craft to ferry and support the troops needed.

Best news that I’ve heard all day.

Loss of War material is something even Putin can’t ignore. That’s the one thing that could get him to negotiate.

I posted earlier about damaging the International economy. This Guardian article prompted my post. The consequences of this war will hurt all economies.
Link is embedded in text.

Thing is – the ideological apparat at the head of the old USSR wanted for there to be at the other end of any conflict still a world to be hegemon over with themselves in a position to enjoy that. So MAD worked as labeled on the tin.

But do we trust this guy to care?

War is McHell.

He’s talking to an internal audience, here, but he does already seem to be dialing back the crazy a bit:

Note: I’m not optimistic on that but, one can hope.