You have to remember, the person saying that is a fucking moron. Calibrate your understanding accordingly.
Obviously, you’re not woke. The politically correct term is ‘stable genius’.
I don’t think there is presently any serious threat to his grip on power. His expectation, which is a very reasonable one, is that this war will last a few weeks and then they’ll have a victory.
That sounds about as reasonable as Bush and Rumsfeld’s expectation for Iraq.
With the further difference that many Iraqis were happy to be rid of Saddam, whereas Ukraine is (or was) a legitimate and thriving democracy with western alliances and a historical hatred of Russian domination.
It might not even last that long. I’m seeing a lot of comments on how the Ukrainian defense looks incoherent and ill-coordinated. It’s a really bad sign that Kyiv is already under attack from the north and east with a Russian paradrop force to the west. It’s also a bad sign that Russia is doing a full-court press. They are attacking out of Crimea, from the previous breakaway areas (with the support of the rebels), out of the east, and out of Belarus in the north. I didn’t think they would be all in this way, but pretty obvious they are going for the whole thing, and if they take the capital fairly easily (yet to be seen) I’d say it will pretty much be all over at that point.
I haven’t seen any good reports on Ukrainian losses wrt SAM sites or aircraft, but from the reports of airstrikes and fighting, I’d say it’s not looking good for the Ukrainians at this point. On the ground, in some areas, Ukrainian forces seem to be doing ok, but in others, the defense seems to have completely collapsed.
This isn’t to take anything away from the Ukrainians fighting for their country and their lives, just that Russia has an overwhelming advantage, especially since Ukraine is all alone.
I saw a report of an accidental leak by Chinese state-run media to report nothing negative about Russia or the conflict, negative comments about the West and US, put the blame for all this on the US, and, most chilling (to me) that they will need Russia’s support and understanding when they deal with the Taiwan issue, once and for all. Just in case anyone thinks that the Chinese aren’t watching all of this and the west’s reaction with a keen eye.
Didn’t the news claim the Ukrainians had 100,000 forces? They’re outnumbered but I thought they could hold out for a few weeks.
I’m now hearing ‘air raid sirens’ on this live stream 
What is “GMA”?
Good Morning America - ABC network 2 hour early morning news. I watch it before leaving for work.
Numbers don’t really mean that much. It’s about training, tactics, strategy, and combat power. Sadly, Ukraine’s military wasn’t well trained, well-led, and worst of all is that their equipment was all old and outdated, with very little of it having been upgraded. They also have a lot fewer of critical pieces than they really need. They don’t/didn’t have a lot of integrated SAM defenses. They have few fighter planes, few helicopters, and those all older models that are way less capable. They have a lot of tanks, but most aren’t modernized, and all are Soviet-era built or designed. They have a lot of troops, but it’s hard for those troops to be effective when they are being hit by so much artillery, rockets/missiles and ground attack air craft, then punched out by armor in the quantities Russia is bringing to bear.
Plus, at least this is my impression from some of what I’ve seen, the Ukrainians really didn’t seem to have planned well for their defense. I know that’s hard to believe, but that seems to be the case in a lot of respects.
I don’t think they will hold out for a few weeks. I did think that before, but it doesn’t seem to be happening. This could turn around though, and I hope it does at least wrt making the Russians pay heavy for this, but…well, so far it doesn’t seem to be going that way.
So THAT’s where a lot of the broadcast TV stations are getting their establishing shot!
And Ukraine people care too. I’m skeptical of numbers because the Ukraine government has reason to exaggerate. Lop-sided losses are a great recruiting tool to encourage more Ukrainians and other anti-Russian people to take up arms to engage in asymmetric warfare.
Governments can be relocated much easier than cities can. I expect the Ukrainian government, or at least a functional skeleton crew, have already relocated.
Yes. And continuing the ANA analogy, I wonder just how deep the FSB penetration in Ukraine is. Surely fortifying Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mauripol and other major cities should have been the main priority in the last few months, instead the Russians have advanced with resistance being organised by local commanders without much coordination with the General Staff.
Almost too perfectly convenient.
The terrain is more or less indefensible. The only thing that matters is local concentration of forces. I have no expectation that the Ukrainian defense can survive as an organized force in being against any contact with the Russians.
This war will turn into guerilla action within days. The only factor is how fast the Russia logistics can keep up with the front “line”. If the Russians haven’t captured Lviv with seven days of the initial advance, it will be because of their own tactical failures or their strategic goals don’t include it.
And that’s a real risk for Putin. If the Ukrainian partisans cause any significant delays to the total occupation of the country, the tactical weaknesses of the Russian army will be very apparent to the whole world.
They definitely are vulnerable on the logistics side of things, and IF the Ukrainians were to concentrate on that (assuming they can) it could really hurt the Russians.
The sheer scope of the attack is beyond their ability to defend.
Ukrainian forces can, with stiff resistance, kill more Russians, but they cannot realistically prevent conquest without Western intervention, and bitter resistance would simply mean more Ukrainians killed. Like some of the smaller victims of Nazi aggression, the proper move might be just a bit of resistance to retain honor, getting people out of the country Putin intends to murder, and then government in exile working with Western governments to support ongoing resistance.
Well, fuck..
Russia is saying in essence NATO’s future membership will be subject to a veto by Moscow.
Not something the alliance can accept.
I sort of wonder if Putin’s characterisation of the Ukrainian government as “nazis” is partly to do with the fact that President Zelenskyy is Jewish. It’s fairly typical of the Russian government to make ironically absurdist statements.
And I also wonder if the fact he’s Jewish drives some of the hatred towards him.