Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

This is hopeful:

American officials on Sunday identified three areas on which the United States could soon take action in an attempt to address Russia’s intensifying war in Ukraine: a ban on Russian oil imports, a declaration of war crimes against Russia and help facilitating delivery of Polish fighter jets to Ukraine.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/06/politics/us-officials-action-ukraine/index.html

There’s a Daily Beast article upthread (link to that article: Russian State TV Just Blew Up Putin’s ‘Nazi Ukraine’ Bullshit) that pretty much directly says what Putin wants - someone got a little too loose-lipped on Russian state TV:

As to the Kremlin’s aims in Ukraine, Kartapolov explained them in detail: “Our position is clear and transparent, including during these negotiations. The essence is as follows: Ukraine will recognize Crimea as the Russian Federation, as well as DPR/LPR [‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ and ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’] within their administrative borders. Ukraine will change its social and state system and become a neutral, demilitarized country. That’s it.”

The author of the article then says this:

The banter revealed Putin’s apparent strategy in Ukraine: destroy Ukraine’s infrastructure and cause widespread desperation with a brutal military assault, which would then compel the Ukrainian government to concede to Putin’s terms and leave their positions or face a violent removal by force. It’s a land grab of Eastern Ukraine, followed by the transformation of the rest of the country into a powerless vassal state, controlled and headed by Putin’s puppets. To break Ukraine’s resolve, the Kremlin likely intends to replicate the brutality it demonstrated in Syria and Chechnya.

This dovetails nicely with what I’ve read from Fiona Hill - she thinks Putin most likely wants to essentially wipe Ukraine off the map; more or less subsume Crimea and the eastern part of Ukraine into Russia and then set up a puppet state in the Western part that will go along his wishes. This provides a buffer between the rest of Russia and NATO countries.

Moldova could be the next step.

That’s true, but he’d been involved in Broadway much earlier, and wrote the original book for Anything Goes!, along with Guy Bolton:

Wait… So they accepted payment on the weapons, said the weapons existed, and now they can’t be found so they can’t deliver the weapons they (said they) made? Sound like something the Mafia would do. Or a kleptocracy.

“Here’s the deal Russian soldier: You can ask for asylum and stay here in the west, or you can return to a Russia that has collapse economically, and where “fast food” now means that the lineup for your 2 potato ration was only 2 hours long.”

Excellent! Thanks.

That’s assuming Ukraine is succesful, and Russia doesn’t insist on repatriation of all Russian soldiers.

That’s a lot of “Ifs” to protect a soldier’s life from government retaliation, and is why it’s a general rule that soldiers can’t be used for propaganda. Their lives can be endangered by it, especially in chaotic post-war conditions where other soldiers of the same army may have a grudge, not just the government.

The money for all those fancy yachts and mansions has to come from somewhere! :slightly_smiling_face:

Interesting mention on those Kalibr missiles. The NYT just published this item in their live blog:

A Russian cruise missile attack struck an airport in western Ukraine, some 100 miles from the capital, Kyiv, on Sunday. Videos verified by The New York Times, some of which were first confirmed by the Centre for Information Resilience, based in London, show what are likely land attack Kalibr cruise missiles flying toward Vinnytsia Airport. It’s unclear if the videos show the same missile or multiple ones.

The airport in central Ukraine is mainly used for civilian operations but includes an area for military usage. The missiles hit both civilian and military infrastructure, according to an analysis by The Times.

One video shows a missile flying over a cemetery located less than three miles from the airport. The missile is coming from the south, the direction of the Black Sea. Kalibr cruise missiles are normally launched from ships or submarines, and some variants have a range of more than 1,000 miles.

Several videos also show large fires and a collapsed building at the airport. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that eight missiles had “completely destroyed the airport,” but that number could not be independently verified.

They may still have a fair number of missiles deployed tactically, but if they have no strategic reserves they can’t replace them.

I find it interesting that they are using them if so.

Trying to destroy as much Ukraine infrastructure as possible before they lack the capability of doing so…

That, and they’re probably now worried about NATO or other re-supply through this regional airport. Or that airport being used as a base for NATO fighters and other planes.

Commanders have probably been told to do something… anything… to show some positive results.

The whole Russian military is so corrupt and inefficient that mid-level commanders may not even know they are short of cruise missiles.

It really complicates trying to untangle Russian goals. If conquest and annexation of Ukraine is the aim, wrecking infrastructure is a bad bet. If it is reducing Ukraine to a poor dependency with a puppet government, it potentially makes more sense. Though even then there all sorts of negative unintended consequences - Russia is still a neighbor and knock-on effects can be real.

You’re assuming that everything they do has to be logical and make sense… an unwarranted assumption. :grinning:

I listened to The Penal Conscripts before it was cool.

December 26, 1989: Happy Boxing Day!

Fair point :wink: .

I’m picturing a series of images of Mussolini, Ceausescu, and Khadaffi meething their ends followed by a picture of Putin labelled, “Watch This Space”.

Petraeus knows his stuff. CIA and extensive military experience. I like his assessment of Ukraine.

Size matters. Imagine trying to occupy a 320 sq mile city. I know shelling is inflicting heavy damage. It’s going to be a bloody war.

Reports that Russia has limited supplies of rockets and fuel is encouraging.
The Guardian blog

My memory might also be off, but I remember that being around 2004 / 2005, with the high prices being attributed to the Iraq war.

North Korea? One of the Stans? It would be ironic if Russia was reduced to receiving support from those types of countries.

As to the last question, they don’t have to be in great shape. Even a small percentage that still work would be a disaster for the whole world.