A lot of Russian passenger aircraft are leased from Western Corporations and those leases are going to be cancelled–now getting the planes back might be a problem, but the Russian airlines don’t want to P.O. the leasing companies.
A lot of the Major Aircraft maintenance takes place in the West. For example, Aeroflot’s fleet has their major maintenance facility in Germany. While Russia can take up some of the slack, Aircraft are maintenance hogs.
A lot of spare parts come from the West, even on Aircraft built in Russia…and those spares are going to dry up.
Upshot: If sanctions go on for months, Russian commercial aviation will be crippled, and I for one am not likely to go flying with them anytime in the next 3 decades…
It tested when I clicked on it. It should say "The End? with an image of an Aeroflot plane. He talks about aircraft leasing and what will happen with the sanctions.
We were talking specifically about Russian cultural heritage sites, and this was the conversation:
I replied that all of them are still standing.
Yes, there was the TV tower, and Babi Yar next to it as collateral damage, and a couple of incidents way on the outskirts of Kyiv, but no sustained bombardment, as there is Kharkiv for example.
You were wrong about Russian cultural heritage sites being damaged in Kyiv, and it would have been better to just let it go.
And agree to Russia having taken the pieces it’s already taken.
This is certainly not the basis for a long term peace settlement. But that said, these terms surprise me. If the war is ended on these terms, Russia won’t get any immediate gains from this invasion; all it will have is what it started with. Considering there was talk of Russia annexing all of Ukraine when this war started, this seems like an acknowledgement that Russia has suffered major setbacks. Putin would have a hard time spinning this as a Russian victory.
Does “permanent neutrality” put any limitations on Ukraine’s own armed forces?
If Ukraine must never join NATO, that’s one thing. But to require disarmament, or a weak military, is like telling a lamb “Hey you must always keep your throat exposed so the wolf can bite it whenever he wants.”
If Ukraine is forbidden from joining NATO, then I say NATO and the US should absolutely arm it to the teeth. A 300-fighter strong air force with F-15EX Eagles and F-16Vs, THAAD, Patriot, Abrams, Paladin, all sorts of munitions, at a steep discount. Arm it up to the point where it is at least as strong as Poland. Give it many thousands of Javelins and Stingers. Make it such a hedgehog that even someone like Putin would consider a Ukraine War 2.0 to be suicidal.
If Ukraine is forbidden from joining NATO, and is “neutral”, then some NATO country should invade it, in order to annex it as the Semi-Autonomous Region of Totally Not Ukraine, which will no longer be beholden to the agreements made by the no longer existing Ukrainian government. And since they’ve been annexed by a NATO country, they are now a part of NATO wink wink nudge nudge
I mean, if Russia is allowed to fuck around like this, we should be allowed to as well!
ETA: I hope SARTNU means something insulting in Russian.
The first Russian general to be killed (less than a week ago), Andrei Sukhovetsky, was from the same army group outside Kharkiv. Presumably Gerasimov was his replacement.
Who’s going to be eager to command the 41st army now?
I was amazed by how many of the world’s commercial aircraft are owned by a company based in Ireland.
In other aviation news from Ukraine, sadly the one complete example of the world’s largest airplane was recently destroyed by Russian forces (it was in a a hangar):
(Of course, this is nothing compared to the loss of human life.)
I don’t think this was ever a goal. Rather, it is: 1. Install a friendlier government (that guarantees Crimea and those other de-facto Russian regions remain as they are); 2. Ensure Ukraine will never join NATO (nor accept a bunch of armaments from the West)
I think many Russian people could be convinced these are worthy fruits of victory.
ETA: As per Little Nemo’s post, Crimea would be the one flat-out annexation. Makes sense. This, the Russian people might see as the most tangible prize. We could even call this thing something like the “Crimean War.”
More information on Russian control of the media narrative in this NY Times piece (probably paywalled). Some highlights:
To spend several days watching news broadcasts on the main state channels, as well as surveying state-controlled newspapers, is to witness the extent of the Kremlin’s efforts to sanitize its war with the Orwellian term “special military operation” — and to make all news coverage align with that message.
Words like “war” or “invasion” to describe the actions of the Russian military are forbidden under a new law that President Putin signed on Friday. The law mandates up to 15 years in prison for any coverage the state deems “false information” about the military campaign.
News bulletins are fairly uniform from one television channel to the next. The “operations” in Ukraine are basically described as a peacekeeping mission by the military to rescue the Russian-speaking residents of the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk from the terrible war crimes perpetuated on them by the Ukrainian government. The West is described as completely unsympathetic to their plight.
The vast destruction visited on the city of Kharkiv and many smaller towns in the northeast usually merits at best a passing reference, or is blamed on Ukrainian forces.
Still, the onslaught of the official state version seems to be having the desired effect.
Various Russian polls show considerable support for the war — about two-thirds of the Russian public — although experts say that pressure to parrot the official line must be taken into account.
Mr. Kucher, the former independent TV host, said he was taken aback at how often the Kremlin talking points about fighting Nazis in Ukraine were echoed back to him in telephone conversations with former classmates.
“I was so stunned,” Mr. Kucher said. “I never would have thought that propaganda would have such an effect on people.”
I’m shocked at the complete brutality of this war. The Russians seem determined to make targeting civilians their main goal. Reports yesterday said mines were found along the negotiated escape corridor.
The amount of human rights violations is staggering.
It seems Russia knows they’re losing the war and want to brutalize Ukraine as much as possible before leaving. The lingering hatred will last for decades.
Ukraine had been making steady progress towards a progressive democracy. This war will set that back. They’ll have more lawlessness and extremism for years to come.
It’s ironic Russia says they want a neutral trading partner. They already had that close relationship before Crimea. Everything they’ve done since has pushed Ukraine towards NATO and the European Union
US forces bent over backwards to minimize civilian casualties. All the smart bombs that we used targeted very specific targets. We had spotters on the ground with lasers to guide missiles into a specific part of the building. Leaving all the other floors intact.
We never indiscriminately shelled cities with rockets. We sure as hell never strafed civilian relief columns trying to escape.
There were still civilian casualties but nothing like we’re seeing in Ukraine.
