Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

quite possibly the dumped jet fuel …

throw good amounts of a liquid at 100s of km/h on a fast spinning propeller, and things get out of whack pretty fast …

(that’s just my guess, I have no further information)

We used to do it all the time.

It’s harmless to the dumping aircraft. The fuel plume remains well behind the aircraft.

No aircraft designer, not even a Russian one, would engineer a fuel dump system that would endanger the aircraft when used.

The warrant on Putin will be derided by many as being pointless and of course he may never face a courtroom, but this is still a big deal. He now cannot travel to anywhere that recognises the ICC which is most of the world. It will make it much more difficult for leaders like Orban to consort with him. It puts pressure on Xi’s visit next week making it much more likely that China will be isolated and subject to its own sanctions in future.

It also marks a point of no return for Putin. There is no way now that things can go back to normal now.

And let’s consider this for a second: The International Criminal Court has just issued an arrest warrant against the leader of a permanent member of the UN Security Council. What does this do for the UN? The war in Ukraine has already been splintering the Security Council (another reason the invasion was unwise for Russia as its presence on the council is a benefit to it), this will really pile the pressure on.

The green countries are now no-go areas for Putin:

Green: State party
Yellow: Signatory that has not ratified
Purple: State party that subsequently withdrew its membership
Orange: Signatory that subsequently withdrew its signature
Red: Not a state party, not a signatory

For the United States, would it be Congress that would ratify?

I saw a single damaged blade. I would believe that is unusual.

Spare Parts!

I imagine that is to make their guys look good to Russians, and to annoy the USA.

The Senate.

Green: State party
Yellow: Signatory that has not ratified
Purple: State party that subsequently withdrew its membership
Orange: Signatory that subsequently withdrew its signature
Red: Not a state party, not a signatory

(messed quoting up …)

.

how about diplomatic immunity in this context? … I assume ICC’s criminal charges trump (ha!) diplomatic immunity…

say, in a freak scenario - he is travelling to China and his jet has a technical problem and needs to land in Mongolia (green!) … would mongolian police take him into custody (dare I say, offer him tea?)

There’s a reason George Bush and Dick Cheney don’t travel overseas.

AIUI, diplomatic immunity shields people who commit crimes in the countries they’re in, by the countries they’re in.

Why can’t he travel? (see below)

No , they won’t .
It’s that simple.
Sure, the ICC will say that Mongolian police have the obligation to enforce ICC edicts.
But nobody is actually going to click the handcuffs on Putin and frog-march him in front of the world’s cameras…

So, I disagree with your comment saying:

No, it’s not a big deal.
Because , as you say, it will be derided, and it will be ignored.
Putin knows this, and he won’t be in any way intimidated or affected by the ICC ruling.

It gives us internet monkeys a nice fuzzy feeling in the tummy, but that’s the end of the story.

The signatories have agreed to a legal obligation to arrest anyone with an ICC warrant. The countries signed up include the next two hosts of the G20 and countries he’s visited since the invasion began. I agree politics would likely get in the way of any attempt to put him in handcuffs, especially in a country like Mongolia, but it reframes Putin’s international profile and puts extra pressure on countries that include many that are currently indifferent.

I know the US doesn’t put much stock in the ICC and will underplay it but this has really upset the Russians as they like to claim that they are not committing war crimes and that their actions are justifiable.

However this is unprecedented so nobody really knows what the true implications will be. Not game changing for sure, but I don’t believe it’s nothing either. If Russia wins its war Putin cannot return to business as usual.

Putin probably sees the warrant as a badge, with which he can impress his people. ‘I have the death sentence on twelve systems!’

Here’s hoping Putin ends up the same way that guy did.

BTW, his name is Dr. Cornelius Evazan.

“Hold my vodka, comrade!”

hmmmm … may I “refresh” you?

Pinochet arrested for 18 months in London

a spanish Judge wanted to see him (over some fringe-crimes, just like the case for putin) and the brits had to oblige (and they were not eager to do), but had no other option

Pinochet was out of power when he was arrested. Arresting him wasn’t seen by Argentina as an act of war.

Of course not.

Chile might have been rather peeved, though…

True. But that assumes a mechanically sound plane. Fuel leaks and a failing fuel pump have a habit of showing up at the worst of times. Nice video.