Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

[FrenchDunadan]

@Ssounder

I’m not sure, but maybe a person with a screen name of FrenchDunadan, who links to a French based source might not have English as their first language?
If so, his English is certainly better than my French.

Merci l’ami
New development, the Chinese embassy went back today on the statement, saying that it was only the personnel opinion of the ambassador, and not the official position of China. Seems like the uproar was sufficient to make them rethink. Maybe it was intentional to test the waters…

[glowacks]

@FrenchDunadan

Maybe it was intentional to test the waters

That’s what I’m leaning towards.

[Fiendish_Astronaut]

I think that’s being too generous to the Chinese government. Chinese politics has just as many loons and incompetents as any other country. Maybe more so considering the political system.

[scabpicker]

Hmm, the ISW seems to indicate that Ukraine is probing across the Dnipro:

• Geolocated footage published on April 23 indicates that Ukrainian forces are operating in areas northwest of Oleshky on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. [175] Kherson Oblast Occupation Administration Head Vladimir Saldo denied that Ukrainian forces have established a bridgehead on the east (left) bank as of April 23. [176]

Institute for the Study of War

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Bradley IFVs in Ukrainian service:

Oliver Alexander

[Walken_After_Midnight]

@MikeF

Maybe a month or so ago it was noted that Ukraine’s fighters were being modified to drop JDAMs. Any evidence that they are being used?

Here:

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker

Joint Direct Attack Munition

[Cardigan]

Reportedly Russia has sent its vaunted T-14 Armata tanks to Ukraine.

Putin Sends Elite Russian T-14 Armata Tank to Fight in Ukraine

I have great doubts about this claim. Sure, Russia is running out of modern tanks at an alarming rate and that’s why we see them dusting off rusty old T-62s and even T-55s, but sending T-14s to the front would be a horrible idea for Russia. First off, I seem to recall the tank is still more or less a prototype and had significant teething problems (remember, one broke down during the parade in Red Square a couple years ago and had to be towed) that I don’t know ever got fixed. Secondly, they only manufactured a handful of them, like less than 20, so they would be very unlikely to serve anything like a decisive role. Lastly, the Kremlin would suffer (even greater) embarrassment if one of these ‘state of the art’ tanks were to share the fate of so many other Russian tanks and fall into Ukrainian hands. Capturing or destroying a single one of them would be a big propaganda coup for Ukraine.

[carnivorousplant]

@Cardigan

(remember, one broke down during the parade in Red Square a couple years ago and had to be towed)

Was demonstration of superior recovery abilities of Russian Army, comrade!

[Cardigan]

As I recall they couldn’t put it into reverse gear. Let me guess…Russian tanks not need reverse gear. Never retreat, comrade!

[carnivorousplant]

“People’s Parade goers will step back while tank demonstrates ability to turn around without running over people.”

[Walken_After_Midnight]

More details on the T-14 breaking down at the 9 May Victory parade rehearsal:

According to the Moscow Times, one of eight T-14 — the world’s first series-produced third generation main battle tank, based upon the new Armata universal chassis system — suddenly stopped in front of the GUM department store while crossing Red Square with its engines still rumbling.

Attempts to tow the tracked vehicle as the rest of the armored column passed by proved unsuccessful, yet the tank began to move on its own 15 minutes later. Loudspeakers immediately announced that the sudden stop had been planned. “We have demonstrated how the evacuation of military hardware [during battle] will be conducted. The tank’s stop was planned,” the parade’s announcer told curious spectators.

Did the ‘World’s Deadliest Tank’ Just Break Down?

At one point the tank driver raised a red flag - apparently to signal problems

Russian super-tank 'stalls' on rehearsal parade in Moscow

[aceplace57]

I understand they want to push back Russian artillery. Kherson is taking a pounding.

Is this really the counter offensive or a faint to pull Russians from other areas? The next few weeks could bring big changes.

The guardian blog

Ukrainian forces based on the western side of the Dnieper River are frequently carrying out raids on the eastern bank near the city of Kherson to try to dislodge Russian troops, a regional official said on Tuesday. Yuriy Sobolevskiy , deputy head of the Kherson regional administration, said the raids were intended to reduce the combat capability of Russian troops who have been shelling Kherson city since being forced to retreat. “Our military visit the left (eastern) bank very often, conducting raids. The Ukrainian armed forces are working, and working very effectively,” Sobolevskiy told Ukrainian television.

[Broomstick]

@thorny_locust

oh, we’re not buying, we’re just investing . . .

oh, we’re not invading, we’re just moving our workforce in to those factories we invested in . . .

oh, we’re not taking over, we’re just setting rules for this area that now has so many of our citizens in it, and this is only so few kilometers over your border, you’re not going to start a nuclear war over that, now are you? . . .

(rinse, repeat)

Didn’t Russia sort of maybe try that with Ukraine…?

After a certain point there will be objections. Not sure anyone is sure where that point is.

@FrenchDunadan

New development, the Chinese embassy went back today on the statement, saying that it was only the personnel opinion of the ambassador, and not the official position of China. Seems like the uproar was sufficient to make them rethink. Maybe it was intentional to test the waters…

I very much suspect it was testing the waters. I think most such “lapses” by high level diplomatic people are exactly that. Plausible deniability and all that.

[Fiendish_Astronaut]

Personally I reckon the Ukrainians just want the Russians to hunker down and spend time in their bunkers (in hopefully poor conditions with poor supplies). And if the Russians are sitting in defensive positions they are not attacking as much. In the meantime the UA can continue to build up and train on its NATO goodies until they are more ready in a few more weeks time.

[Johnny_L.A]

@aceplace57

a faint to pull Russians from other areas

‘Feint’.

(I got this image of a Ukrainian swooning. When the Russian comes to check him, the Ukrainian stabs him in the throat.)

[aceplace57]

Thank you for the correction. That was a howler.

@Johnny_L.A

[carnivorousplant]

I thought is was difficult to cross a river when the enemy held the other side in WWII.
I should believe it would be much more difficult now.

[Askance]

I can’t find the quote right now, but one of the WWII generals said something to the effect that rivers are only in the third class of natural defensive barriers, I guess the most effective ones being hills/mountains.

Basically once a river line is breached in one spot the whole line is now ineffective, where an incursion into a mountainous area doesn’t really compromise the defences in the rest of that area.

[aceplace57]

I’m beginning to understand a political solution is the only way to win this war. The fighting will just keep escalating.

Link Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

Senior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. The New York Times (NYT ) reported on April 24 that a senior European official stated that the chances of Putin “backing down” in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive are “less than zero.”[1] The official stated that Putin would likely mobilize more soldiers to fight in Ukraine. US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander said that there is “very little evidence” to suggest that Putin would alter his strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine “politically, if not fully militarily.” US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby told Voice of America on April 25 that the US is increasing security assistance to Ukraine because the US expects that Russia will attempt to go on the offensive as the weather improves.

[FlikTheBlue]

@aceplace57

I’m beginning to understand a political solution is the only way to win this war. The fighting will just keep escalating.

From that very clip you’re quoting, the assessment of ISW is that Putin would not alter his "strategic coal of subjugating Ukraine “politically, if not fully militarily.” Yes, that was regarding a Ukrainian counteroffensive. But if Putin’s goal is to subjugate Ukraine, whether politically or militarily, how would negotiations help? The only solution is to build up the Ukrainian military to be strong enough to kick them out of Ukraine and then build fortifications at the Ukraine - Russia border. The only other options Ukraine has are surrender or defeat on the battlefield. Negotiations are tantamount to surrender.