It said naval drones, so little boats, not little flyers (I think).
Especially with all that talk about Russia facing another 1917. Which might not be a bad outcome.
If the Russians are saying the war is going badly…that concerns me.
The only way Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric makes sense to me is if he’s attempting to lay the foundation of a coup (from what he considers a safe distance, naturally). His statements seem aimed directly at undermining Putin and the top brass of Russia’s military while trying to portray himself as championing ordinary soldiers. (The latter is bullshit, of course, but if he’s looking to subvert elements of the regulars and the Guard, it would be a logical gambit.)
It seems a poor gamble, but it’s possible that he’s feeling cornered.
Or he’s just a loudmouth feeling his oats.
He got a big boost in supplies & presumably money last time he called the Ministry of Defense a bunch of weak incompetents. He may simply be angling for another shot of cash.
Maybe it’s the tough love speech:
Look here political elites and Putin,
Unlike most Russians, I can and will speak truth to power. You started it. If you don’t finish it successfully you’ll be hanging from a lamppost with all the other unsuccessful war-starters of recent history. That won’t be my doing, nor will it be my fault you lost. I have tried and am still trying to win. The way to finish this war successfully is to fully fund Wagner and put me in charge.
Or not. Your choice.
Love & Kisses,
Prighozin
Wagner are handing over their positions in Bakhmut to the regular Army. This would seem to be a good moment for Ukraine to strike. And Russian prosecutors are asking a court to recognize Nazi crimes during WW2 for some reason.
The Russians released a video showing them destroying a naval drone attacking the warship Ivan Khurs:
However, another video has surfaced appearing to show a naval drone making it to the ship:
Appears to have struck in the stern around where the engine compartment is likely located. Depending on the size of the explosive charge, that could do some serious damage.
Even if it didn’t breach the armor, that’s where the rudder(s) hang out and, being unprotected, they are notoriously prone to damage. Just ask the crew of Bismarck.
Armor? On an intel gathering vessel? Not very likely.
Hmm, that does look like Ukraine may have attacked it with drones, and one may have succeeded. Tastiest crow I’ve ever eaten. Can I get the recipe?
Isn’t that kind of the point of drones? Since they’re cheap and unmanned, you can afford to just send a half-dozen of them on a mission, and don’t care if the enemy destroys five of them, if the last one accomplishes the mission.
If you’re asking why I saw it as eating crow: I had doubted they’d use a drone on such a long mission when there were probably targets more close by, possibly in or near a port. Because yeah, that’s the point of drones, but why hunt so far from Crimea, which is probably a more target rich area?
But apparently they knew something I didn’t, and decided to hunt down near the Bosporus.
It was mostly intended as a response to Russia’s posturing, “look at us, we took down a drone!”. Yeah, idiots, but you didn’t take down enough of them.
That’s the one place that every ship traveling north into the Black Sea has to pass.
I thought the Turks weren’t allowing naval ships through.
They are allowing warships based in the Black Sea to return. I’m not sure what the circumstances surrounding this ship are.
US aid to Ukraine summary to 21 May 2023. (pdf - 3 pages)
In other news - Report indicates S. Korea to lend 500,000 155mm projectiles to the US. This would allow the US to release more of its 155mm projectiles to Ukraine. Yes, it a “shell” game.
Total aid from Finland to Ukr. is $1.2 billion.
Distinct possibility one Ukrainian drone ships struck the Russian reconnaissance ship Ivan Khurs.
“While there is nothing to suggest these reconnaissance sorties were in any way related to the attack on the Ivan Khurs, it remains the case that a U.S. Air Force RQ-4 Global Hawk drone was patrolling very close to where the incident is supposed to have occurred, possibly in response to the incident.”
Image of Ukrainian drone boat.
I wonder where the Wagner group will deploy next? What’s the next city they’ll reduce to rubble? I would expect they’ll use the same tactics as Bakhmut. They’ll use himan wave attacks until they slowly overrun the Ukrainians. Doesn’t matter if it takes 10 months and 20,000 dead Wagner fighters.
Perhaps. But Wagner is not Russia’s selective service and can’t just conscript willy-nilly from the Russian populace for the glamorous job of bullet-sponge. Their tactics were to some extent predicated on a substantial supply of highly motivated (read: absolutely desperate) convict “volunteers” fighting for a chance at freedom.
But Wagner claimed back in February they were stopping that program. Probably less out of any altruism than running out of physically fit/desperate-enough material to work with. In the meantime those sacrificial lamb waves have been taking absolutely brutal casualties.
Putin potentially has a huge sea of mostly worthless Russian reservists he can conscript as bullet-soakers, albeit at whatever risk of mounting internal opposition. But barring that convict corps, Wagner presumably has to pay voluntary signees. Guys fighting for money, unlike convicts fighting for freedom, are usually not as desperate and motivated enough to want to play “how many times can I get blown up charging the entrenched enemy across this open field.”
We’ll have to see how long these tactics remain viable for Wagner going forward.
ETA: Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious, and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy.
- Niccolò Machiavelli