Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

My guess is this is the last one. Given the things Prigozhin has said, he’s not safe going back to Russia to be redeployed. I assume the only reason nothing has been done about him yet is that Putin’s personal goons won’t go into Bakhmut to “take care of him” for fear of their own lives. Ironically he‘s safer in Bakhmut than he would be in Russia. So my guess is he tries to find a way out, maybe via Mariupol, then by sea to Africa.

I too suspect that Russia no longer can afford to engage in future offensive operations at that scale. I recall reading recently that current estimates put the number of Russian tanks and Ukrainian tanks in theater at near parity. After receiving months of military equipment infusions and training from the West, we’re going to see the return of maneuver warfare very shortly and that bodes ill for Russia.

Russian missiles struck a hospital in Ukraine and an urepaired dam that is under Russian control has caused flooding in part of southern Ukraine..

Spain is a relatively small country. They’re doing a lot to help Ukraine. They’ve already trained 1500 Ukrainians for the military.

Spain doesn’t use F-16’s and can’t help with that need.

Eh. They’re the 6th largest economy in Europe, 7th largest by population. Among European countries, they’re definitely not small, and at 26th most giving by GDP I’d argue they’re not doing that much to help.

Now, they’re less likely to be threatened than Poland or Estonia and their having economic issues, so I get it, but it’s not due to their size.

Same group as originally promised. These latest four were the last of the promised ten. They needed substantial refurbishment.

And I just discovered there is such a rank as lieutenant colonel general.

It’s not as catchy as a modern major general, though.

Ukraine is increasing their missile and drone attacks. Wiping out Russian supplies and troops.

The transcript is helpful if watching video is a problem. Click more under the description and show transcript.

[President of Belarus hospitalised after meeting with Putin](https://President of Belarus hospitalised after meeting with Putin)

Source: Tsepkalo on Telegram

Quote: "According to the information we have, which needs additional confirmation, Lukashenko, after meeting with Putin behind closed doors, was urgently taken to the Central Clinical Hospital of Moscow, where he is now located. The best specialists were sent to return him from a condition assessed by doctors as critical. [His - ed.] blood was purified, Lukashenko’s condition was proclaimed not transportable.

If I was a Belarus politician the next meeting with Putin would be handled through diplomatic channels with the Putin assassination committee. Their office is on the 10th floor.

Apparently Russia “hasn’t just started yet to act very seriously,” according to Russia’s ambassador to the UK. So they’ve just been fooling around up till now?

“We’re not even trying!”

Sounds like a clear threat to go nuclear.

The appear to be dead serious about not trying.

So… This does not bode well. Particularly since Belarus is now going to be housing tactical nuclear weapons. It sounds very much like Putin is going to order nukes to be used against Ukraine as a last ditch effort to “win” his war. I wonder if perhaps Lukashenko told Putin he could put the missiles in Belarus, but would not authorize their use unless attacked. And Putin needs to put a different, more compliant stooge in place. Because Putin wants the nukes to come from Belarus soil, not from Russia itself.

It’s not going to end well, for him, for Ukraine, for Russia and for the world if this is how things escalate.

“Do you want WW III? Because this is how you get WW III.”

Before this hijack starts again …

Threads for speculation about Russia using Nuclear weapons.

Please take such speculation to one of those thread and no more in this one.

…or…and I know this sounds crazy…maybe, just maybe Lukashenko has a cold.

Summary

It’s more chaos and has the potential to go seriously pear-shaped for all involved. Russia no more believes in Belarus’ existence as an independent country than they do Ukraine’s, they just have been content for now with a puppet-state. Lukashenko has hand-picked successors in place, but whether Putin lets them take over is an open question. Another “referendum to rejoin Russia” is something Putin and the other hyper-nationalists are gong to consider…

If such a thing were to happen everything gets complicated. Does Belarus largely roll-over? Then Ukraine’s military situation becomes more complicated. Does Belarus not roll-over? Then Russia’s military situation becomes more complicated. And there are a thousand permutations in between.Regardless, Belarus itself would become an even more unhappy place to be than it has been.

Bizarrely Lukashenko’s death could be a huge mess for everybody.

Summary

One is generally not taken to hospital and given a blood transfusion for a cold.

IF the rumours about his treatment are correct.