One has to imagine that if there were any tanks in the vicinity of Moscow, they’d have been in the Victory Day parade. And an air force response, if any, would best be launched while they’re still well outside the city, with less cover and less collateral damage. What does that leave, that could realistically stand up to Prigozhin’s forces?
It appears as likely Akhmat battalion (pro-Russia) will arrive in Rostov in an hour or so. Any Fighting would mostly be in the city center.
It will be getting dark in a couple hours and it looks like rain (for context to help verify videos if you’re searching).
I’m still not convinced this whole thing isn’t just a ruse.
Me neither.
Yes, thanks to all who keep us up to speed.
I’m thinking logistics. Things like fuel, to keep a column moving on a 1000 mile trek.
It appears that Chef Prigozhin knows something about having a reliable supply chain.
Not sure that the Russian Army has equivalent capability.
Me three.
Oryx is managing to inject some humour into a dangerous situation:
Chef’s Special - Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2023 Wagner Group Mutiny
That would be why I said “unsurprisingly.” It was intended to give a sample of pro-Putin reaction to the Wagner Mutiny. 
I don’t feel I mischaracterized it at all but YMMV.
It’s real. Multiple helicopters have been shot down (video out there of the wreckage of at least one), and one aerial command post airplane (also video of it on fire in a spin, video ends before it fireballs on the ground). Also multiple vehicle burning on the highway near Voronezh.
No one is going to blow up aviation assets as part of a ruse.
…and no way does any ruse involve making Putin look weak.
The mayor of Moscow has declared Monday to be a non-working day - they are locking down the city.
Meanwhile deputy secretary of Russia’s security council Medvedev says that the whole world will be on brink of catastrophe if Russian nuclear weapons fall into the hands of ‘bandits’. I guess he’s saying this because one of Russia’s nuclear storage facilities is on that road Wagner are taking to Moscow. Can’t see what they would do with them though without launch codes…
It seems like it’s too little to be real.There’s no way it can succeed. So why would Prigozhin attempt something destined to fail unless it’s just pretend? I mean I hope I’m wrong. Maybe Putin can amp up attacks on damns and plants and blame Prigozhin? I don’t know. Like I said I hope I’m wrong.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672588006476185602?s=20
one hour later…
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672601629839769600?s=20
Edit: does this board no longer display Tweets?
First video shows a column of trucks confiscated by the Russian army and used to block the motorway. The second shows the same vehicles all scattered to one side of the road.
Further edit: Now they are digging up the road: https://twitter.com/VanessaBeeley/status/1672623976139431937?s=20
A little rich coming from him. Medvedev has been threatening to nuke various western cities practically daily since the war began.
Yea, logistics is everything. For example, Wagner claimed to be running low on ammo the past few months. I think the US didn’t necessarily believe that. Was Wagner stockpiling for this? Perhaps.
I’m not sure about fuel. Maybe in each city. It’ll get you to Moscow, but you clearly need open roads along this whole corridor.
I’m unclear how Wagner can sustain this for weeks or months, though. Especially if they come under heavy sustained attacks. But maybe the question also is how does Russia keep up a heavy sustained attack without pulling significant forces from Ukraine.
Prigozhin appears to be gambling that enough of the regular army is just as disgruntled with Shoigu and Gerasimov as he and will switch sides. Putin will flee Moscow (rumour has it he already has), if Wagner is in the capital and Prigozhin convinces whoever’s left at the Kremlin to bend the knee to him, perhaps the rest of the army comes under his control and it’s “just” a matter of purging the Putin loyalists.
Dump trucks loaded with sand are disposed as road blockade in Moscow. Some were disposed on the main road from Voronej, but appears to have been pushed on the side by Wagner forces.
Explosion (one) heard in the FSB building in Rostov/Don, civils fleeing in panic. The building had been took without fight during the night.
Police cars alongside Wagner forces in Rostov/Don.
The videos of that were in the links to Twitter I posted. BBC Verify has just said these videos have been geolocated as a mere 100 miles from Moscow.
Is there any reason Wagner troops are not being resisted on the road? I’d think Russia has planes and helicopters to take the fight to Wagner exposed on the road.
Instead, defensive fortifications and tearing up roads and bridges leading to Moscow.
I know it’s early, but still.
Remember that the vast, vast majority of combat-capable Russian forces are deployed in Ukraine.