At this point, nobody is sure who is loyal to who. It’s possible that whoever commands the air force has told his troops to sit this out for now and see what happens.
Stay on the sides till it’s clear who’s going to win, then swoop in to deliver the coup de grace and claim credit for the victory?
Interesting. It worked for Washington (crossing the Delaware)!
Time honored tactics.
I’m not sure how to link from Twitter, but it seems two battles are starting about now. Wagner forces seem to have just reached Moscow, and the Kaydyrovites are attacking Wagner in Rostov on Don. If Putin was going to use a tactical nuke, his time to do so seems to have passed.
Hidden {WE?}
So Putin is getting closer and closer to his last days. Will it be a bunker suicide or hanging upside down at a gas station. Not a good time to be a Putin double.
Moderating:
Not the thread for such speculation. Please drop the subject or take it to another thread.
In theory, could they do enough damage to prevent a launch? Breaking stuff is easy, after all, and I’d certainly want to whittle down Putin’s weapons everywhere.
See The Long Watch by Heinlein; set on the Moon, but deals with exactly this issue.
This thread is full of speculation regarding current events. Right now there is an active attempt at deposing Putin. What are your specific guidelines for moderating comments on current events?
I’m looking for clarification to better understand.
I would like to see these updates in this thread rather than having to try to keep up with three (or more) for the same thing.
The soviets designed their motorways for rapid troop deployment to put down dissent. Unfortunately it means they are also very useful for getting troops and tanks into the heart of Moscow.
https://twitter.com/russophileLs/status/1672588355366797312/photo/1
jokes aside - what in a situation like this is more important than military assets is MOMENTUM …
there is no status quo in this current situation - you either gain momentum or you lose it … and it seems Wagner is gaining momentum, and Putin is losing momentum …
(akin to the napoleon example upthread)
So where is the Russian Air Force that should be strafing the Wagner column?
Watching and waiting…
Reuters stating the convoy headed to Moscow is led by Dmitry Utkin, founder of the Wagner Group. Prigozhin said to be in a military HQ/bunker in Rostov.
Not sure how to embed a picture in this post, but link below - it’s worth looking at. Don’t see that guy surrendering.
"Wagner's convoy heading to Moscow is led by its founder Utkin" — Reuters pic.twitter.com/fCUwQu1Nbh
— MAKS 23 👀🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) June 24, 2023
He reminds me of Michael Berryman.
From CNN:
Ukraine claims it has taken back territory in the east that was held by Russia since it annexed Crimea in 2014.
According to military officials in Tavria in southeastern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces have captured “territories near Krasnohorivka in Donetsk” and are continuing to advance, state media Ukrinform reports.
Another Ukrainian official claimed that Russian forces had been pushed out of the area about a week ago, but the information was not made public for “tactical reasons.”
Ukrainian forces claim to have taken the area prior to the apparent Wagner insurrection but only announced it Saturday.
Can’t confirm, but Belarus has been negotiating with Wagner Group to stand down. That appears to be real, but can’t tell if a deal has been made, as is being suggested.
Generally speaking, I don’t see a way out of this if Prigozhin is not allowed to keep his troops, and I can’t see Putin allowing that. It’s hard to imagine what a deal might look like.
edit: very recently, it does appear Wagner will stand down. Per Wagner Telegram channel. Confirmed by NYT.
⚡️Prigozhin says Wagner will stop march on Moscow and withdraw to military field camps.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 24, 2023
Yes, and French reporters filmed some more on the outskirt of Moscow.