All roads lead from RomeMoscow. Some folks just travel them in the wrong direction.
Nm. Bad math and old link
its not meant to take weeks or months (if it does take that long, its mostly failing) … its a “make-me-or-break-me” thing that’s gonna have a clear winner and a clear loser within the next 2-3 days.
I think that’s the critical point here … probably 1000s of mid-tier-military are sitting on the fence, NOT taking decisions that could put them on the wrong side of history …
again, I think 90% of that “attack” will be (not)fought in the head-space and not really a military-slug-fest
Prigozhin has indeed made the announcement that they are pulling back. Difficult to see how things can just return to normal.
So who won the Russian primary?
Why? Why would Prigozhin do this? Why would Belarus do this? Why would Prigozhin listen? Doesn’t this mean certain death?
Unconfirmed rumors, AFAICT. Maybe real, maybe not. We’ll see.
EDIT: I see the confirmations now. So it looks like he did say it (or a convincing imitation said it), but let’s wait to see what actually happens. Could well be a feint, or a hoax, or some other explanation (maybe to make Prigo look reasonable i.e. “I was willing to stand down but then they sent a squad to assassinate me so now I have no choice but to end this criminal regime…”). Or maybe real (which would seem dumb from Prigo’s perspective – hard to imagine how he survives if Putin keeps power).
Thinking about it further – if Prigo’s own fighters lost their willingness to fight other Russians, they may have forced him to stand down, allowing him to stay as visible leader to save face. But for now we should just wait and see.
I’m not believing it. There’s no way that Putin can accept the continued existence of Wagner at this point, and Prigozhin knows this perfectly well. Something else is afoot.
Maybe they’re going with the original plan? Purge Shoigu and Gerasimov, declare victory in Ukraine while claiming the whole thing was really their idea, bring the troops home, make Prigozhin the new minister of defense, and in exchange Putin gets to keep being president of Russia?
I’m not claiming this is real or anything, but as suggested above, this is a possible end game which is what Wagner was demanding:
BREAKING: Reports there will be major changes in Russian Ministry of Defense leadership in exchange for Wagner halting its advance on Moscow
— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) June 24, 2023
Putin has to be incredibly politically weak to accept this, though.
Prigojine has been deemed a traitor, called “apostate” by Putin, rebelled and took Russian army generals prisoners, shoot down at least one and maybe several aircrafts…after accusing the Russian army of bombing his training camps.
How can he be “Well, we go back to barracks and business as usual”?
That truce will not last, or else Prigojine is deader than dead.
He HAS to know this. There is no end game here that doesn’t include either victory or death for him.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672658620671041540?cxt=HHwWiIC9ueiJvbYuAAAA
from the tweet:
Prigozhin says it’s over:
“They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan.”
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672664197669289985?cxt=HHwWgoC8qbjOv7YuAAAA
“Prigozhin was offered to give up the idea of going to Moscow, and in response was offered the security of Wagner. They also promised to resolve the issue of Shoigu and Gerasimov,” Russian media report.
This further convinces me that it wasn’t real and was all staged.
at this stage, likely outcome:
- putin stays in (little) power, they take away his “make-me-taller” shoes
- Shoigun et al will be the sacrifitial lambs (which is a possible good news for UKR, as that might be an off-ramp
- Prigo will be made new MoD … (and I guess de facto leader of russia)
- Putin and Prigo cannot trust the other and turn their back on them
- Putin or Prigo will fall out of a window …
I guess a lot of military guys are now scared shitless concerning their actions take in the past 24 or so hours …
Or at the very least, it was a pointless exercise.
I can’t see how Prigozhin can survive. He’s spoken out too frequently. The march towards Moscow is unforgettable. Putin has to retaliate and show strength as a leader.
The whole thing has been pinging my bullshit metre from the beginning. I know as much about military exercises as my dog but usually when there is a coup, you hear about it on the news just as it’s happening or has already happened. I can’t remember one where the insurrectionists announced from 1000 miles away “we’re coming to overthrow you!”. And then a short while later “ok we won’t”.