Not very reliable. Here Jakub Janovsky, one of the participants in the Oryx project, explains that the analysis disregards several important factors:
https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1677312212384337924
In brief, it ignores Russian equipment pulled from storage, it ignores that many captured vehicles cannot be made operational by the capturing side, and it ignores the likelihood of systematic undercounts by groups like Oryx.
Another point is that cluster munition are already being used in this conflict, by the Russians.
Neither the US nor Ukraine have signed any sort of treaty banning these weapons. The US does have rules and goals to reduce the number of duds in the bomblets, which is a good thing for a number of reasons. I suspect the Russians are not so conscientious.
The rules around the failure rates are, to my understanding (which may be flawed) policies and goals, not so much laws. Developing munitions of this sort with a low failure rate that are able to either destroy or de-activate themselves if they do not find an appropriate target isn’t as simple as we’d like. A failure rather of "under 2.5% still represents an advance over the failure rate from 20 years ago which was running around 5%
The BBC article may (or may not) reflect some bias as the UK is among the many nations that have signed a comprehensive ban on these weapons and pledged to destroy their own stockpiles.
Personally, I’m not a fan of these as they are terribly destructive and take a heavy toll on civilians, or at least they have in the past. I don’t think that risk can be entirely elminated.
In the end, this should be Ukraine’s call as they are the ones who will be living with the consequences of using these weapons.
The civilians in Ukraine won’t have a chance with mines and the live pieces of cluster bombs.
A complete cluster fuck for sure. 
Picture of M864 155mm projectile. The M483A1 is the earlier model without the base bleed assembly. The M483A1 has 88 grenades, the M864 has 72.
Below is my post for another forum.
Some clarification. The DPICMs grenades in the 155mm, 203mm and MLRS are the same except the lower layers in the 155mm M483A1 have solid walls instead of prefragmented walls. The setback and rotational forces from high zone propellant charges would crush the lower layers and you’d get a premature detonation (messy for the gun crew). The ribbon isn’t just for orientation. It has a twist; aero forces on the ribbon unwind the firing pin partially from the fuze top. At that point, a spring loaded slider positions the detonator below the now retracted firing pin. On impact, the firing pin hits the detonator; the lead charge and main charge follow. The dud problem is from multiple causes: Soft ground (sand, mud), angle of impact (you want as vertical as possible for the firing pin to reliably initiate the detonator, nearby detonations (a whole lot of grenades going off) disturb the impact angle. Modification to later fuzes reduced the dud rate but not near the 1% asked for. Tanks running over unexploded grenades weren’t a problem. Bradleys could lose a track (not fatal but you don’t want to jump out to repair and kick another grenade. HUMVEEs could lose a tire/wheel. Follow on forces in Desert Storm avoided impact fields from MLRS/Arty bombardments - everything in those areas were pretty much destroyed anyway. I know of one Logistics Assistance Rep (LAR) who hopped out after the war end and started gathering up “duds”. The second “dud” stacked on top of the first in his pocket detonated killing him. He was a vehicle (MLRS) LAR, not an ammo guy - just dumb. Post war cleanup of the dud fields was relatively simple with no reported injuries.
The ATACMS bomblets are different animals, not DPICM but M74 Anti-personnel and Anti‑materiel (APAM) bomblets. These were recovered from Lance missile conventional warheads and other cluster munitions. There is no shaped charge to penetrate armor. The round does have tungsten fragmenting case and an incendiary pellet. Most ATACMS are the unitary warhead types now.
Thanks for attending my TED talk. I’ve got lots more stories from multiple deployment to the middle east and Afghanistan/Uzbekistan/etc…
M74 bomblet. About the size of a baseball. The flutes cause the bomblet to spin rapidly. That arms the fuze. Fragmented tungsten case and an incendiary pellet. Won’t penetrate armor but light skinned vehicles, radars, personnel, etc… are fair game.
M42/M46 DPICM grenade. Good pictures. The shape charge can penetrate 2" to 4" armor (unclass). The M42 has a prefragmented wall for enhanced anti-personnel effects. The M46 has a stronger solid wall and is used in the base layers of the 155mm projectiles to prevent collapse of the layers on launch (premature detonation would be the result of a collapse).
Thanks for the sober factchecking. 
I mean, we’re the ones supplying the weapons. Don’t we have a responsibility to mitigate future damage? I know this is probably better in its own thread as well.
Moderating:
Take this to a new thread. Cluster Ammunitions have been explained very thoroughly and opinions on their use and distribution need their own thread.
Sorry, I get carried away in the minutia.
July 7, 2023 US Aid Package. Drawdown of existing stocks. The capabilities in this package include:
- Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
- AIM-7 missiles for air defense;
- Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
- Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); No mention if this includes MLRS with cluster grenades.
- 31 155mm Howitzers;
- 155mm artillery rounds, including DPICM, and 105mm artillery rounds; whether M864 projectiles with a base bleed range enhancement or M483A1 not announced.
- 32 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
- 32 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers;
- Mine clearing equipment;
- Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
- Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
- Precision aerial munitions;
- Penguin Unmanned Aerial Systems;
- 27 tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
- 10 tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
- Demolitions munitions and systems for obstacle clearing;
- Small arms and over 28 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
- Spare parts and other field equipment.
How many boxes of condoms?
AFAIK that’s been a part of soldiers rations since WWII. They kept rain out of their rifle barrel with them.
Preventing soldiers STD’s was very important too.
Zelenskyy visits Snake Island:
I can’t support violating a prisoner exchange agreement. Don’t encourage Russia to detain prisoners indefinitely or execute them.
“Moscow denounces” and “Russia says”… You’ll forgive me if I don’t take their word on it.
I would have thought the Hague Conventions still had applicability here.
It would be a concern for captured commanders to return home and resume leading troops.
The Hague provides a mutually beneficial solution. The prisoners are freed and they no longer pose a threat on the battlefield.
NATO countries have to locate the new launch sites and update first response targeting. It appears that defense officials are already monitoring locations in Belarus for any indicator of nuclear launch preparations.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/07/politics/belarus-wagner-russia-nuclear-weapons-nato-summit/index.html
I find the Azovstal commanders return to Ukraine a bit curious. This is of course the doing of Erdogan, and it’s not a solitary action. He also stated yesterday that “Ukraine deserves to be in Nato”, that he hopes to extend the grain deal, and that he hopes Putin will visit Turkey in August to continue peace talks. This is very strange. The statement about Ukraine deserving to be in Nato and the prisoner release are both actions that will piss Putin off, put at the same time Erdogan’s promoting negotiations? At a glance this doesn’t make much sense, not that I’m an expert on Moscow/Ankara relations. But what the heck is Erdogan up to?
Is it domestic politics? I wouldn’t think so, given he just won re-election and is presumably secure for a while.
Is it about the upcoming Nato summit in Vilnius? He’s going to be getting a ton of pressure put on him by everyone but Hungary to ratify Sweden as a member, so maybe he’s trying to buy a few brownie points? Seems unlikely, I can’t tell that Erdogan really cares about what other Nato leaders think of his position on things.
Is it the F-16 upgrade packages that the US is trying to use as leverage re: Sweden? Also seems unlikely, because I can’t see that the US will care about this minor bit of posturing compared to ratifying Sweden as a Nato member.
Very, very curious.
Three of the five are Azov regiment, so I don’t think the brownie points with NATO concept holds water. Indeed, I would think the West would find it more politically expedient for them to remain out of the picture.
My guess would be that this is in response to Putin pissing off Erdogan in some way.
Obviously there’s a lot of misinformation about the Ukraine war on Twitter. I’m not suggesting anyone on this thread is pushing fake news, just that it’s there.
Also, Syria clamped down on Wagner mercs after the mutiny. I guess it will have a chilling effect on their influence now, because if you use them, can you trust them? And are you then tacitly against Russia?
A Ukrainian twist on IED’s. Except this IED is a missile. This type of cheap weapon will probably become common in other conflicts. Although it’s not a simple roadside bomb that is easily made.