Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

Washing machines might have chips in them… but there are a lot of more portable things that have chips in them, too. If they were just after the chips, you’d think they would just break off the control panel and steal that (easy enough if you don’t care about the condition of what’s left), and leave behind the heavy tub, motor, plumbing, and frame.

I think they’re really after the washing machines. We’ve forgotten, in the past century, just how much of a luxury those things are. Remember, the closest we ever came to a President-for-life in this country, was so popular largely because he made washing machines available to all.

I’m sure no nation any more DOES produce everything it needs, but I expect that most of the functional ones CAN. It’d cost more, but if we really needed to, we could scrimp to afford it.

FDR was president for life.

So was JFK. And Lincoln.

Breaking News thread. Reminder

Are you saying Abe Lincoln’s assassination isn’t breaking news?

Meanwhile, Putin continues to throw a strop about the Black Sea grain deal, claiming that it has only benefitted Ukraine and that Russia wants to export fertilizer which is not included in the agreement. The threat to withdraw from the deal is causing some anxiety elsewhere.

No reason it can’t be both. With a side of wanton vandalism.

Yeah, the problem is, von der Leyen, that Russia might find global food insecurity an attractive prospect at this point…

As an EU resident, I believe this statement is not really a caution to Putin (because he’s going to do what he’s going to do) but is rather primarily intended for domestic political purpose, to remind the new batch of Putin-aligned authoritarians currently making waves in EU countries who they’re actually in bed with.

Erdogan says Putin has agreed to extend Black Sea grain deal. Unclear whether Putin knows this yet.

Fool me once…

Yes

Thanks to Putin, leaders across the spectrum are reminded that the world consists of 3 or 4 teams*. Choose wisely or suffer accordingly.




* West, Russia, China, or truly non-aligned.

Well, make of this what you will

The Russian propaganda is cranked up and smearing Prigozhin. He looks very fit for his age.

Wagner fighters are now showing up in Belarus. Maybe there was some attempt at a reconciliation that fell through so they’re make space from Putin?

I suspect there’s a plan for the Wagner group. They will rest and rebuild. Maybe they will spearhead a fresh attack at Kiev?

I seen news that Poland is increasing their defenses.

A unit that experienced is always a threat.

Unless they’re unarmed. :wink: I’m skeptical about this report.

“Fresh attack at Kiev”? Russia might as well launch a fresh attack at Paris – they’re about equally likely to succeed.

I think Wagner has a plan to attack somewhere. Maybe not Kiev. But they aren’t staying together and training for nothing.

It’s concerning that a well rested force could be fighting Ukrainian troops that haven’t been rotated.

Putin has warned Ukraine not to use cluster munitions:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/16/europe/putin-cluster-munitions-ukraine-intl/index.html

Oh look, here’s Russia using cluster munitions against Ukraine, in a city no less, in 2022:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1680496658138779648
https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1680497621549342720

In fact, Russia has already used cluster munitions in Ukraine hundreds of times:

Why do people insist on beating this ‘new attack from the north’ drum? Russia tried attacking from the north using a significant portion of their army, supported by masses of armoured vehicles, artillery, and aerial assets. Ukraine successfully warded off that attack using thrown-together formations of poorly-armed Territorial Defense Force units who had no time to establish proper defensive formations.

Any new attack from Belarus, be it by Wagner or regular Russian Army forces, will require a massive buildup of forces that will be seen by surveillance satellites weeks or months in advance. Ukraine has prepared defensive positions and will have time to man them with experienced combat forces. Ukraine probably wishes Russia would actually try something like this, because for it to be a credible threat they’d need to transfer significant portions of the forces currently in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk to the north, creating an opportunity for Ukrainian breakthroughs in those sectors. I’d like their chances of holding the line in the north while gobbling up chunks of territory in the south and east.

Remember that Wagner is not some uniquely terrifying combat formation. Their relative success around Bakhmut (which took less territory in 13 months than the “failed” Ukrainian counteroffensive has taken in the past month) was predicated on 1) massive artillery support, and 2) inhuman lack of concern for casualties among their convict recruits. This allowed for a slow grinding advance where they utterly destroyed the Ukrainian positions in front of them and then occupied the rubble left behind. It is not a recipe for advancing 120km from the Belorusian border to Kyiv, or even the 50km to Chernihiv.

Wagner in Belarus is a greater threat to Lukashenko than it is to Ukraine.

Putin’s schtick of “Don’t do that, or I’ll be forced to do what I’m doing anyway” has almost a Monty Python vibe to it. I just can’t decide if it’s more the Frenchmen taunting a second time, or the Black Knight.

“Any more attacks on Russian soil and I will be forced to invade Ukraine!”