Odesa’s cathedral. According to Putin logic, the attack on this “military target” must prove that he’s in league with the Devil.
Russian propaganda show talks about destroying Odesa:
Prominent Russians talking about attacking the West no longer makes the news, such is its frequency. Now Belarusian president Lukashenko is getting in on the act:
Ahh yes. The old “I can’t control my wild dogs” play.
Putin’s loose cannon Prigozhin just might run amok in the West, and if so that’s totally the West’s fault, or maybe Prigo’s. But totally not Putin’s. Yeah sure, that’ll fly.
Not to say they won’t try it, but nobody in the West, public or government, is going to believe it’s a rogue act.
The Wagner menbers rarely give interviews. The BBC managed to talk with one. The BBC has a good reputation for accuracy and vetting sources.
Gleb claims many of the men did not know why they were moved into Russia. It calls into question their willingness to aggressively fight a civil war. These were men following orders to redeploy. I think the situation would have changed dramatically if Russian bombers had attacked their positions. Imho many of these men weren’t committed to over throwing Putin or replacing the Ministry of Defense.
Link Wagner mutiny: Junior commander reveals his role in the challenge to Putin
Skipping ahead…
Sometimes the best way to win a fight is to not fight.
well, if Wagner goes west at the same speed they headed for Bakhmut, than they shold hit the polish border sometime Oct 2089
Russia is dangerously out of control. Imho
Romania is a member of NATO. US troops are there. There’s also a NATO response force in Romania. It’s only a matter of time before NATO territory is bombed.
Between the destruction of grain, this incident near Romania, and the re-deployment of Wagner to Belarus with recent rumblings about how they want to go to Poland I’m beginning to think Putin wants war with NATO. Except by having Wagner now based in Belarus and possibly attacking from there he’s hoping NATO bombs/destroys Belarus rather than Russia proper. Because, after all, that’s what proxy buffer states are for, right? [sarcasm on my part, maybe not on Putin’s]
I guess drone attacks are more precise than the Russian missiles they currently use in Ukraine.
But can you imagine the response if NATO attacked targets that close to Russia or Belarus?
It seems like it. But I wonder what Putin gains by doing this. The only thing that makes sense is if he thinks NATO is too weak to fight back. Maybe Putin really believes we’ve sent so much stuff to Ukraine that we don’t have enough to defend NATO proper. Which seems absurd, but then again believing absurd things seems to be Putin’s specialty.
Some people just want to watch the world burn.
Plus it is as much of a show of power against the West (for domestic consumption) as Russia can manage at the moment.
But if they actually attack, he won’t be showing power. He’ll be showing (or getting shown) a parade. Of NATO troops marching through downtown Minsk. There will likely be more than just one WWII era vintage tank.
Putin is master of the “I’m not touching you” school of military provocation. He knows if he goads NATO into a proactive response, they will lose massive amounts of support domestically and internationally. It would never get to a march through Minsk.
It’s insane brinksmanship but it’s one of the few areas he’s very good at.
The problem comes when “I’m not touching you” so closely that I accidentally touch you. What happens when a munition goes off course and hits the wrong side of the river?
This is very interesting.
Same thing that’s happened every time Russian military planes have “accidentally” flown over the Baltic states.
That wouldn’t make sense. If NATO gets directly involved, it won’t be via ground forces (except in defense of a NATO nation’s borders) but through cruise missiles and air power; the stuff Ukraine can’t really project right now and is holding them back. “Russia was shooting missiles at Romania so we had to use air strikes to take out Russian missile installations to defend Romania”.
We’ve actually seen some weaponry land in Poland last year. WWIII did not ensue. In part, it might be because it could have been Ukrainian munitions. In part, it seemed to be an actual accident (it was juuuuuust over the border). So I think there’s a certain, small level of “oops” tolerated here.
But… there’s a limit. A miscalculation could result in NATO getting involved and WWIII going hot. Which is why this situation is concerning and bears watching.
I was thinking of a more direct scenario, like Wagner mercenaries, now that they are Belarusian rather than Russian, crossing the border into Poland, Lithuania, or Latvia. Since they’re now technically Belarussian, reprisals would be against Belarus rather than Russia. Presumably any such conflict would be settled quickly in NATO’s favor. Presumably losing his only true ally would also be a much bigger blow than whatever small benefit Putin might gain from getting to claim that Wagner briefly invaded Poland, Lithuania, and / or Latvia. Which means the only way such an attack would make sense is if Putin thinks that NATO is incapable of invading and quickly conquering Belarus.
Moderating:
Speculation of this sort would be better in a different thread. Please drop it now in this thread.
There’s an American who goes there and does demining of agricultural areas.
Ryan Hendrickson
He says all the mines his organization removes are destroyed.
I follow him on twitter. Tip of the spear is his handle. Really interesting videos of how they go about it.
He also wrote a book called Tip of the Spear. I haven’t read it yet but it’s on my list.