Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 2)

Don’t forget all the damage to UKR foregone by having the machine no longer in use by the Russians. The future damage foregone is direct and easy for an attack helo or tank, and is more indirect for a transport vehicle like that Mi-8.

But still, its future contribution to the Russian war effort is now exactly zero.

Maybe even less than zero to the degree UKR propaganda about the defection can persuade more Russians to follow suit.

How much would it cost to buy that helicopter? I’d think more than the reward offered, but I’m accustomed to vague mutterings about how much such things would cost in the US.

Newer Mi-8s go for around $10 million. Helicopters are located in Russia, and I don’t know when the ads were posted. There’s a 1981 Mi-8 listed in Hungary for under US$200,000. The details say ‘The chopper is fully functional, but the airworthness has expired. After full overhaul, it can be put back to service again.’ So half a megabuck sounds like a good deal for an airworthy helicopter, not to mention the spare/replacement parts it was carrying and the propaganda value of the defection itself.

ETA: Beaten by an hour, because I posted before finishing reading the thread.

Another war crime by Russia:

US Aid Package 6 Sep. 2023
The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $175 million, include:

  • Equipment to support Ukraine’s air defense systems;
  • Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  • 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
  • 81mm mortars systems and rounds;
  • 120mm depleted uranium tank ammunition for Abrams tanks;
  • Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
  • Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
  • Over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
  • Tactical air navigation systems;
  • Tactical secure communications systems and support equipment;
  • Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
  • Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment.

This security assistance package will utilize assistance previously authorized under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) for Ukraine that remained after the PDA revaluation process concluded in June.Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine > U.S. Department of Defense > Release

A small bit of good news: Ukraine is shipping some grain out through Croatian seaports. Lots of people depended on them for food before the war, so any little resumption of those shipments is excellent.

Birds of a feather…

a very well written and long article

well worth the time reading it…

While there is no way to truly know what percentage of combat power has been committed, at this point most of the Ukrainian brigades expected to be involved in the offensive, including air assault reserve units, are contributing to the fight in one fashion or another. It is unclear if Ukraine is transferring additional forces from other fronts, though some recent reporting suggests this might be the case. Russia has also deployed strategic reserves, including the 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division and 76th Guards Air Assault Division, and elements of its Dnipro task force in Kherson.

Some commentators had assumed the initial assault was not the main effort, and three months in, some still characterize the offensive as in its “early stages.” This reveals the continued problem with a lack of understanding of how Ukrainian forces typically operate.

Apparently Starlink was turned off last year and caused an attack on Russia’s navy to fail and indirectly allowed Russian forces to attack Ukrainian cities . Musk allegedly wanted to avoid using Starlink in a military action and was concerned that the attack might contribute to a possible nuclear attack. However, Russia praised the choice. Former president and deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, praised Musk’s decision not to allow Ukraine to use Starlink for the attack last year.

Additional $600 million aid package announced. 8 Sep 2023

“The Defense Department said the latest package will come through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which provides money for long-term contracts for weapons systems that need to be built or modified by defense companies. Included in the aid is funding for equipment to sustain and integrate Ukraine’s air defense systems, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 105mm artillery rounds, electronic warfare and counter-electronic warfare equipment, demolition munitions and mine-clearing equipment, as well as for training and maintenance.”

SoS Blinken announced:
“In addition, he announced the US will send nearly USD 805 million in non-arms-related aid to Ukraine, including USD 300 million for law enforcement, USD 206 million in humanitarian aid, USD 203 million to combat corruption and USD 90.5 million for removing mines, the State Department said. That package also included a previously announced USD 5.4 million transfer to Ukraine of frozen assets from Russian oligarchs.” US announces new USD 600 million aid package for Ukraine to boost counteroffensive (devdiscourse.com)

The source of the report was Walter Isaacson’s biography, which is much more interesting than the secondary reports. WaPo published a large excerpt from the book:

Ukraine was mounting the Starlink terminals to drone submarines targeting the fleet in Sevastopol. Which we actually knew from pictures, but I think the scale of it was unknown.

Gwynne Shotwell (president of SpaceX) said:

“We initially gave the Ukrainians free service for humanitarian and defense purposes, such as keeping up their hospitals and banking systems,” she says. “But then they started putting them on f—ing drones trying to blow up Russian ships. I’m happy to donate services for ambulances and hospitals and mothers. That’s what companies and people should do. But it’s wrong to pay for military drone strikes.”

For those who don’t have a Washington Post subscription is a gift link to the WP article linked above.

I wonder if they made this clear to the UKR’s …

hidden as off topic and Musk isextremely prone to hijacks. WE?

Starlink posed a complicated and multi-layered dilemma, to be sure. And frankly it’s a failing of our military-industrial complex that a private company was the only one able to help Ukraine with communication services.

But I disagree with the lines Musk drew. Appeasing a tyrant is never the right choice, and by succumbing to the nuclear bluster of Russia and disabling Starlink service around Crimea, Musk singlehandedly impacted the course of the war

. Worse, he did it without notifying the Ukrainians.

It shouldn’t have come to that, of course, and I’m glad to see that workarounds have been (and continue to be) established. And SpaceX absolutely should be compensated by the U.S. government for the early support they provided.

Moderating:
Do not digress into a side bit about Musk.

No opinions on Musk in this breaking news thread. Take it to a Musk thread or start a new one.

There has been several Musk Hijacks in this pair of threads. They spread like wildfire or Lantern Flies.

Gepard 35mm cannon in action against Russian drones.

Status-6 on X: “A video reportedly showing two Russian Shahed-136 (Geran-2) loitering munitions being shot down by the Ukrainians with a German-delivered Flakpanzer Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun (SPAAG) during last night’s attack in Odesa Oblast, southern Ukraine.… https://t.co/OhH7vTultm” / X (twitter.com)

To date, 46 Gepards have been delivered to Ukraine by Germany, with another 6 pending delivery. More recently, the U.S. Army has bankrolled the transfer of an undisclosed number of Gerpards to Ukraine from Jordan, in a contract worth ​​$118,375,740. Unlike the German variant, Jordan’s stockpile of Gepards are ex-Dutch (~95). The sticking point has been ammunition with the Swiss blocking transfer of stocks. That’s improving, “… domestic defense contractor Rheinmetall to restart production of 35mm ammunition earlier this year.
The first batch of said ammunition was recently delivered to Ukraine, with 40,000 rounds promised by the end of 2023 as part of the deal. So far, Germany has delivered 86,122 rounds of Gepard ammunition from Bundeswehr and industry stocks, according to the latest government figures, with 289,920 rounds still to be sent.”

Second video.

The guns are much cheaper than MANPADS against the numerous Shahed drones and cruise missiles. The radar guidance is also effective in all weather conditions unlike the coming LASER systems that get a lot of press (and money).

Instead of a “NO”, it’s at least a “soon maybe”. About time and don’t announce the damn shipment. Russians will figure it out right after the first few impacts.

US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials - ABC News (go.com)

Wouldn’t the tires make a “Scramble, scramble!” command hard to execute?

“Can’t sortie, too tired.”